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tombgrt

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Everything posted by tombgrt

  1. Don't agree on simply printing more money as the way out for Europe. We tried that already and look where it got us. Alternative is actually distributing money directly to the citizens (helicopter money) which I believe would have a greater impact. The ECB has been hinting for some time now that it would prefer countries like Germany and The Netherlands to invest heavily in infrastructure to boost economic growth and pull the weaker countries up with them as they have the budgetary flexibility to do so. My intuition tells me this would have the biggest impact and financially it makes sense. Germany is at 60% debt/gdp. At current negative intrest rates they should go for a higher debt/gdp percentage imo. Even at 100% debt/gdp, as long as your growth is higher than you cost of debt, you win in the long term. Also, remember that Japan, while not exactly thriving, didn't completely fuck up either, despite the intrest rates and debt being where they are. Standard of living remained stable. Europeans might just have to accept the fact that it's time for others to grow and prosper, while most European countries will stagnate for years.
  2. What did you do, grab value line book and start in the 'F' section? It was the 1,245th page in the ten-bagger thread that finally convinced me. I set posts per page on 50 so the investment ideas get more attractive...
  3. Would you mind sharing (even generally) the timeframe and strikes you're looking at here. I like this idea, but man some of those options are expensive. Be curious to hear how you're thinking about in the money/at the money/out of the money. Yes, super expensive given volatility and nearly always are. :( But considering the leverage and upside potential it would be nuts if they were cheap obviously. When you know their net debt is around $5b vs market cap of $1b, you know the potential stock appreciation is huge. Consistent higher Brent prices simply balloon their CFs and reserves values and this is something the stock price will exponentially reflect. Most are jan 2020 which of course are not technically LEAPS but should be more than long enough to capture a nice return. (If we don't see higher pricing in 2019, I'm not sure we would in 2020 either.) These 2019's I obviously sell first. Others are jan 2021. I've bought both ATM and OTM but generally prefer to buy them well OTM at strike $30-40 which is a realistic level as to not risk them expiring worthless and otherwise doesn't require a high cash outlay. These OTM options also actually act more as options of course vs deeply ITM options. ;) No use going for very high delta options for this stock anyway as the atraction to me is in the 'leverage times leverage component'. Also generally found tighter spreads in the OTM options, probably due to higher volumes. Sure, I could go for a call spread but I'm also fairly bullish on oil for the next 12 months so I'm not willing to bother. :-X It's a highly speculative bet that paid off very well last year (various sold at 800%+ returns of those that I bought around a stock price of $15). You could say these options are now bought mainly with 'house money' as I can now buy these with last year's winnings. So obviously psychologically I'm more willing to swing for the fences. But to me it makes more sense than laying out a multiple of that capital to buy the stock itself. Company looks cheaper today given current Buena Vista oil pricing, macro situation, extra JVs in place and small debt paydown they already had. They also have much less overhang from the hedges with more upside potential. + I don't see the bill getting far for a couple of reasons. CRC also has plenty of JV's with the state and they count on a great deal of tax revenue from them. Trump's administration was actually looking at expanding land permits for oil extraction so certainly some political headwinds on various levels of government as well. Not to mention gas prices would go ballistic if operations of CRC & co really got impacted in the next few years. Just some posturing by Newsom to please some of the voter base, IMO. So the sell off to me looks overdone and provided me with a decent opportunity to jump in. The announcement of more JVs could also be a great catalyst for the stock. Management is certainly making the right strategic steps. They simply got dealt a poor hand. Hope this helps! AB 345 dead for this year! CRC back up to $22 which is a start.
  4. All we know is that these members often have plenty of nephews and are generally inclined to construct oddly phrased and far-fetched posts.
  5. Would you mind sharing (even generally) the timeframe and strikes you're looking at here. I like this idea, but man some of those options are expensive. Be curious to hear how you're thinking about in the money/at the money/out of the money. Yes, super expensive given volatility and nearly always are. :( But considering the leverage and upside potential it would be nuts if they were cheap obviously. When you know their net debt is around $5b vs market cap of $1b, you know the potential stock appreciation is huge. Consistent higher Brent prices simply balloon their CFs and reserves values and this is something the stock price will exponentially reflect. Most are jan 2020 which of course are not technically LEAPS but should be more than long enough to capture a nice return. (If we don't see higher pricing in 2019, I'm not sure we would in 2020 either.) These 2019's I obviously sell first. Others are jan 2021. I've bought both ATM and OTM but generally prefer to buy them well OTM at strike $30-40 which is a realistic level as to not risk them expiring worthless and otherwise doesn't require a high cash outlay. These OTM options also actually act more as options of course vs deeply ITM options. ;) No use going for very high delta options for this stock anyway as the atraction to me is in the 'leverage times leverage component'. Also generally found tighter spreads in the OTM options, probably due to higher volumes. Sure, I could go for a call spread but I'm also fairly bullish on oil for the next 12 months so I'm not willing to bother. :-X It's a highly speculative bet that paid off very well last year (various sold at 800%+ returns of those that I bought around a stock price of $15). You could say these options are now bought mainly with 'house money' as I can now buy these with last year's winnings. So obviously psychologically I'm more willing to swing for the fences. But to me it makes more sense than laying out a multiple of that capital to buy the stock itself. Company looks cheaper today given current Buena Vista oil pricing, macro situation, extra JVs in place and small debt paydown they already had. They also have much less overhang from the hedges with more upside potential. + I don't see the bill getting far for a couple of reasons. CRC also has plenty of JV's with the state and they count on a great deal of tax revenue from them. Trump's administration was actually looking at expanding land permits for oil extraction so certainly some political headwinds on various levels of government as well. Not to mention gas prices would go ballistic if operations of CRC & co really got impacted in the next few years. Just some posturing by Newsom to please some of the voter base, IMO. So the sell off to me looks overdone and provided me with a decent opportunity to jump in. The announcement of more JVs could also be a great catalyst for the stock. Management is certainly making the right strategic steps. They simply got dealt a poor hand. Hope this helps!
  6. Saying the worst investment decision is what you didn't do always struck me as a bit of a humblebrag. Surely Buffett could point to some bad decisions of commission. The dollars involved may be lower but they are more like mistakes in my mind. I'm thinking Dexter Shoe and IBM particularly, though I'm sure there are others. Agreed. And Berkshire itself of course comes to mind. ;-)
  7. Bought a boatload of CRC LEAPS today. Painful to do but hopefully with a good return like last year. Basically crashed yesterday (and lost 10% days before) following a bill in California to restrict drilling, news that was already known on Tuesday. Purely sentimental selling if you ask me. Bill unlikely to go through. But even if it did, it would hardly be the end of CRC. Given that CRC is an option on brent prices already, you might as well leverage that leverage with options. Binary outcome most likely (either they survive and are a multibagger or they become a zero at some point) so much preferable about regular stock.
  8. Ha! Buffett didn't buy Amazon. What a loser! Really deserves his spot here obviously! Seriously, if these are their worst calls I want to be in their shoes...
  9. 5% of my GXE position. But only because I had a 50% gain in an already large position in a matter of weeks. Bought more CRC leaps instead.
  10. OT: Happen to know any good South-African tracker? I've just come back from SA and must say I was not impressed much by what has been going on over there. Electricity outages (so called 'load shedding') were a daily occurence and water shortages are becoming more extreme. Not to mention the social issues. Things don't seem anywhere near to turning around imo.
  11. More GXE and CRC. One lower risk, the other one not so much.
  12. Added more GXE and ATU and bought small position in ATH. GXE at same price as mid november when WCS was around maybe $15. Now it is at $45 and fundamental picture doesn't look as doomy as before, especially with higher demand than ever for heavy oil following Saudi cuts and VZ issues. Somehow the entire Canadian small cap energy space has been forgotten about. Players like GXE and ATU should start to do well again at current prices, let alone higher. GXE's acquisition was poor timing but should ultimately results in a better diversified income stream, adding to stability, and good returns.
  13. Films I've actually (re)watched recently that were very good: Being There - Hilarious oldie Bad Boy Bubby - very dark, especially the first few minutes. odd but funny Call me by your name - great soundtrack, atmosphere (a summer in France in a little town...), acting Edge of Tomorrow - love time travel movies. Tom Cruise and Emily Blunt do a great job together. very good action scenes Get Out - just watch it! Perfect Strangers (Perfetti Sconosciuti) Sleep Tight (Mientras Duermes) The Hidden Face (La Cara Oculta) - I don't want to spoil anyhting about these. Just watch! Timecrimes (Los Cronocrimenes) - another time travel movie. Less known than some others but definitely worth it. Enjoy!
  14. My all time favorite series which I will rewatch at some point: OZ Firefly Fargo Six Feet Under Deadwood The Office (US) The Wire The Sopranos Breaking Bad Better Call Saul Black Mirror Game of Thrones I can't resist to mention a few others as well so here it goes: F is for Family, Dark, Westworld, Bojack Horseman, Sons of Anarchy, Archer, Battlestar Gallactica, Rick & Morty, Seinfeld, Arrested Development, True Detective S01, Stranger Things, Peaky Blinders, House of Cards, Mindhunter, Killing Eve, Master of None, Parks & Rec (first seasons), Hannibal, Orange is the New Black, Luther, Shameless, Family Guy, La Casa de papel, Homeland (first seasons), Mad Men (first 5 seasons), Twin Peaks, Billions, Community, Hannibal, Godless, The Shield, Skins, Boardwalk Empire, Curb Your Enthousiasm, The Deuce, Fringe, Entourage, Californication, The Killing (EU version), The Inbetweeners, Band of Brothers, The People vs OJ Simpson, Freaks and Geeks, Big Little Lies, Misfits, Luther, Spaced, Couples, Fawlty Towers. Currently looking to start watching The Mechanism, Gomorrah and Rome in the coming months. I've become very selective in what I watch as it has become impossible to stay up to date with everything you might like. Generally after one or two episodes I know whether I'll like it or not. For example I recently stopped halfway through episode 1 of Lucifer as it felt cheap with mediocre acting and a lousy story. In my defense, I never watch "regular tv" or sports. Cut the cable a long time ago! Honestly started as a small list but when you start thinking about it, hard to stop... Probably forgetting plenty worth mentioning but I'd start with those listed at the top. Can't miss with those! I know it's not really the point of the topic but I guess it is not a bad reference list for people looking for a good show to watch. Also left out all documentaries etc here. If I do the same for films I won't be able to ever stop so I won't. But I'll maybe post some films that are less well-known soon.
  15. Believe I was up 70% at some point thanks to well timed options on leveraged oil positions and a very big GXE position. Gave almost all of that back in the last few months. Did not feel good and decided to block out the noise for a few weeks before buying a little more of my core positions near the lows. Did not buy CRC calls again under $15 though, didn't have the balls this time around tbh. Luckily had some big winners to end the year too like GCM. Confident companies like GXE and ATU will thrive no matter the oil price (within reason) so not shaken in my conviction. ATU held up reasonably well and GXE did buy nice diversification with its latest acquisition when the stock price was much higher. Both haven't been as cheap in years. Will likely have to eat some losses on OTM calls that would have possibly done well without the crash. You know you can get burned when you play with fire... Certainly got a lesson out of pushing your luck and trying to get rich faster than reasonable or needed. Will try to enjoy the ride more and focus longer term again.
  16. Read it with the smartphone app. No issues then for me.
  17. WCS pricing is just brutal now. But the acquisition of the light oil by GXE was another good one. I also increased my position by 2% recently. Also added more to Altura. IPO doing good as well. Sold some CRC today that I bought around $35 in the dip. Price action is just insane.
  18. Lol at that PCYN "analysis". Smart pump and dump in that he might give casual readers and beginning investors the illusion of (any) analysis. Anyone who calls this honest research of a company with no intention of influencing others, is fooling himself. That or the author is incredibly stupid (given that he has been at it for years). I've heard him on a podcast some time ago and he didn't strike me as someone that isn't very bright.
  19. Agreed! In fact, you might find a bull and bear on a stock somewhere here who are both willing to discuss the investment on your podcast. Would be great to listen to!
  20. Thanks. Got the pdf but will buy this one for the holidays.
  21. E&P in N-A as said above. Agree with Russia too. Some value in Southern-Europe and Asia. EM in general will likely outperform US/EU over 10 year time frame imo.
  22. Thanks. Have read 5 of those books this year alone. Good list.
  23. I'm considering the Spanish/Portuguese fund (considering they are among the cheapest countries around) and the international one. Has anyone already invested with them here? Think it should be doable through their website like with Bestinver. For anyone interested, I just had a call with them. Can't buy through intermediaries (was possible with Bestinver) but easily doable through the website. Plus: no extra costs. No minimum amount required either which is helpful for me as I shift more from active to passive investing over time. I was also surprised to learn they already have many clients in Belgium.
  24. I'm considering the Spanish/Portuguese fund (considering they are among the cheapest countries around) and the international one. Has anyone already invested with them here? Think it should be doable through their website like with Bestinver. I also like Vector (both Navigator and Flexible) in Belgium fwiw.
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