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Everything posted by stahleyp

  1. One of the few big stars left is now retiring in 2023: https://www.wsj.com/articles/fidelity-star-stock-picker-joel-tillinghast-to-retire-from-investing-in-2023-11637074800#:~:text=Joel Tillinghast%2C one of Fidelity,from investing in two years.&text=In late 2023%2C the 63,Sam Chamovitz and Morgen Peck.
  2. Bill, What would need to happen for this not to get resolved in 2022?
  3. I agree. I think the truth is somewhere in the middle. Do I think he's 4x better than the market (of course not) as the March 2009 numbers suggest. Do I think the market is 5x or so better than he is now? Nope. I do think he's much better than average though. If you look at his non-hedged portfolio, it's done quite well (last time I checked anyway).
  4. To Hussman's credit he had amazing performance from inception to about 2010. This is obviously cherry picking data but from inception to March of 2009 a $10,000 investment in the S&P 500 would have been worth about $5,500 vs over $20,500 for HSGFX. He's not an idiot; he is stubborn and arrogant though. If the stimulus didn't happen last year, I'd say there is an excellent chance we'd all be admiring his perspective and all of that. He also has a ton of his own money in the fund from what I remember. Compare that to the folks who run BEARX...and you'll see he isn't just selling fear. On another fun (ie nerd) note, I guess my former neighbor knows him quite well. He even invested with him but sold out over the last couple of years or so.
  5. Even with CAPE over 40, it was over 40 for over a 1.5 years during the late 90s/early 2000s...and that was with the 10 year at over 6.5% at times. To act like 40 is "high" with the 10 year under 1.5% and huge stimulus...we have no idea what CAPE "ought" to be in this environment. Keep in mind that in the dotcom bubble there were high rates and negative stimulus (shrinking government debt). But yes, stocks can drop 50% or more at any time...and I'm more than okay with that.
  6. There is nothing wrong with having a target. With that said, when you are way behind that target, but still promote that target, it makes people think that's what his returns have been. He also produced the chess video promoting similar ideas. To me, it sounds like his promoting of his "legendary" status boils down to 1 of 2 things (neither of which is a good trait for a money manager). Either he is disingenuous (ie wants people to believe a myth) or doesn't understand probabilities. That fact that he regular orders take downs of his letters makes me question his openness. His letters are actually harder to get than a lot of other well known managers. If I'm mistaken about any of this, please feel free to correct.
  7. Per Pabrai's license plate, he compounds at 26%. There is no need to look at his letters or verified record of performance. If you try to post the verified performance/letters he will get upset and threaten people (isn't it amazing how a great "open" teacher doesn't like it when facts get published?). Just assume he compounds at 26% and you will be fine.
  8. I'm willing to bet that you're a better investor than he is. I also think that you're far less likely to blow up. Just my mostly worthless thoughts though.
  9. I don't deny his returns since 2019 are phenomenal. I just think it's at least questionable to not publish long term returns. I mean, you can take on a ton of risk and blow up, close and then open again and eventually, you don't blow up for a few years from sheer luck - if you try enough times. I even tried finding information about him a couple years ago but didn't have much success. Heck, even Mongolian Growth Group is down almost 80% over the past 10 years.
  10. The Babylon Bee is actually pretty prophetic: From 2019: https://babylonbee.com/news/california-public-schools-mandate-field-trips-to-gay-bars-for-second-graders This week: https://www.foxnews.com/us/florida-school-board-chaperones-elementary-school-students-gay-bar
  11. Kuppy's been around for what, 15 years or something? Why is he only showing his returns since...umm, 2019? You don't find that at least a little questionable? I'm assuming his other fund(s) weren't all that great or else that would be published too.
  12. I wonder if the ability to concentrate hurts him or helps him. Judging by his funds, it seems that the more diversified approach stopped him from blowing up completely. Like I said, he's a nice guy and I hope he does well though.
  13. I think we should have much higher taxes or no bailouts. I think it's crazy that the wealthy get to stay wealthy due to government bailouts and low taxes. I mean, it's the poor and middle class that get screwed in this system. Stocks go down? Government steps in (creating deficits). Paying too much in taxes? Government steps in (creating deficits). It's a nice gig for folks with money. I mean, personally, it works for my family but that doesn't mean that's the way it ought to be.
  14. Good for him. Hopefully they close the insurance loophole too.
  15. Good for him on the year but man, he's trailed the market over 3, 5, 10, 15 and 20 year time periods. And that's before taxes. I like Chou but I'm not convinced he's a superior investor. Not convinced at all.
  16. sometimes luck is a better thing to have than skill.
  17. So does all of this mean we're still (probably) going to have low interest rates over the short-intermediate term?
  18. Journal of Infection is a real journal. It doesn't have a super high impact factor but it is legitimate.
  19. Alright, Bill, so (I know you might be wrong) but where do you guess the 10 year will be this time next year?
  20. Yes, Bill is the man. I also really appreciate his insights. Very unique and sound thinking. That's a rare trait.
  21. Yeah, after Dell forced my hand in the buyout...I refuse to buy anymore Dell products. Yeah, yeah I know he doesn't care but still!
  22. Bill, What are you thoughts on this? This seems related to the (same?) thing you've been talking about lately but perhaps I'm wrong. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-07-05/zoltan-pozsar-sees-a-1-trillion-problem-for-money-markets-ahead
  23. I don't think there's much worse for a country than to have a (seemingly) endless amount of "free" money.
  24. This is pretty wild. https://www.ft.com/content/85b06040-1993-4752-bf4f-7964fed3fe26
  25. How could anyone be 100% certain that CAPE wouldn't hit 100? If rates go negative, I don't see why that couldn't happen. Not saying that it will but the odds are much higher than 0%. You factor in negative rates (and no one no knows how that will impact other things), you factor in government support, human emotions, etc, hitting 100 isn't totally out of the question (it's unlikely but certainly possible).
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