Sweet

Bear in mind that this is peak prices, it’s not representative over the day. Journalists do like a bit of exaggeration… still it’s bloody expensive:

The end customer pays their energy company a flat rate which can be adjusted on a monthly basis. The price the energy companies pay is the wholesale price of energy, and they take the market rate when they need energy. Yes, some companies do offer incentives for using energy off peak demand, one particular company was offering a rebate on some bills if they avoided using electricity at the peak morning and evening times.

It’s maybe not as bad on the continent, but still bad there too. The figure above is peak demand, from 5-6pm only. Average daily price perhaps is £600ish. Still expensive. UK is somewhat fortunate that we get half our Natural Gas from the North Sea fields. Yes limited storage of natural gas as you say, however a large storage terminal was reopened this winter because it is now economical at the higher gas prices. We have an over reliance on wind power which can produce roughly half of UK electricity. It has lead to complacency. The UK is ok if it is cold and windy… but cold and calm for long periods = trouble. I think we will struggle to keep the lights on all winter. I have been preparing for blackouts since the summer. I bought a petrol to electricity generator and got an electrician to hook it up to our house’s circuit. Hope I don’t need it.

Greetings from the UK where low temperature and zero wind have combined to drive peak electricity prices to an all time high of >£2,600 Mega Watt Hour. The high prices are here… again.

Ed Morse was the only guy who got the back end of the year correct: https://www.bloomberg.com/media-manifest/videos/android/WiFi/8e875ff8-7157-4193-8835-c707adb0a8c8.m3u8?idType=BMMP

I would go with Vanguard for the expense ratio. If you managed to buy during periods when the index is down a lot you’d have a good chance of producing a return that would beat almost all active managers. Indexing is definitely my preferred approach when buying into a sector where I can’t be sure what companies will last and which won’t. Obviously if you could buy a Google or an Apple at inception, and hold that would be better, but very difficult to do.

I agree Spec, I think Europe will rumble on through. I think the biggest risk isn’t heat though, it’s electricity generation. To add to you risk of extreme cold I also say a lack of wind power.

I’ve come to a similar conclusion about buying and holding companies. My biggest mistakes, by far, were selling good companies. An obvious problem with this approach is that you largely select out technology companies. Companies that tend to stick around for the long haul tend to be those that provide something fundamental that’s hard to replace. An alternative and boring approach to this problem is to index into technology. That way you don’t ever have to pick a winner and you largely remove survivorship bias. Despite the massive drawdowns the Nasdaq has comfortably outperformed the SP-500 since inception. I think we need to be long human ingenuity in some way. And I think an argument can be made that is value investing of a kind.

Let’s not forget the oil price predictions at $120 a barrel. Only BoA was calling for it lower.

Yes I think you are right.

^ China is for sure a bear case too. Overall though, I do think higher for longer mantra is about right. Will energy companies reprice in at higher multiples, yes, but I think probably not as much as people might expect. I do think energy has a much longer runway than the mainstream view, Larry Fink says 70 years - not sure about that long but certainly multiple decades.

What if it never returns to those averages @dealraker ? Many view fossil fuels as a dying industry, and with the rise of environmental investing, a lot less are interested in it. I don’t agree with any of that, but others do, and that is a headwind.

@Blugolds11 an argument could be made for sedation I agree. However that needs to be a separate stand along trial judged on its own merits. I also agree this isn’t about politics either, Alex Jones is just a nut job.

The bear case, if you can call it that, is the world has plenty of oil, either through production or inventory buffer. Some of the bullish narratives do appear over done.

Combined with turning radiators off, and not using electricity at peak times. I read that one company was paying their customers to not use electricity late at night to reduce peak load.

Words definitely and rightly have consequences, and often the area isn’t clear, but incitement is punishable. I don’t know much about Alex Jones, so if you want to tell what specifically he has said that deserves jail time I’m all ears.

Did Alex Jones blackmail someone (which is illegal) and then that person killed themselves? I don’t follow the comparison if he didn’t. I can understand the Canadian example. Regarding the sum of money, I know it’s as much about deterrence but it’s still wrong in my view. There are two wrongs, and I find it shocking that otherwise sane people are advocating for punishment amounting to $1.5 billion. I don’t find anything Alex Jones does shocking because he is a nut job to be ignored. Can you not see how the former is more worrying lol?

What actions specifically deserved jail time?

He is repugnant, but $1.5 billion in damages? That is crazy. It’s more crazy than he is… and he is batshit crazy.

Coincidence that this is a few days before the OPEC+ meeting? Doubt it.

Haven’t we had a recession already? If I was to guess, no recession in 2023 in the US. Widespread recession in Europe.

Thanks Greg, unfortunately I have no idea how I would even go about pricing the above. If I was to have a go at valuation, I would probably approach it like a stock or bond, figure out cashflows and think what it might be worth. What is the rough valuation for interests sake?

Thank you @realassetsvalue

Dam, what is inflation running at in SF? How is hanging a net $400 million.

Never owned a REIT, never had a reason to, but some of these yields are compelling. As a complete novice, is there anything I should be looking out for as I learn about this sector? Started to get curious after reading this article: https://www.marketwatch.com/story/20-dividend-stocks-with-high-yields-that-have-become-more-attractive-right-now-11669731365?mod=home-page