Sweet

I would like that too, but there is a huge passive investment industry just indexing the SP-500. This isn’t a this is different this time argument, I don’t know, just that I know the likes of Ackman have complained this is skewing the market.

maybe, but there are obvious exceptions, most notably the likes of Google, Microsoft, Amazon.

Hope it works out for you. Looked at it, agree it’s interesting, but think there are too many headwinds.

I recently read that the SP-500 had an average growth rate of 4%, I think that explains a lot of the performance differential between small-mid caps and the large caps. The current crop of large cap stocks are incredible performers and growth engines.

You're assuming, without evidence, that you intuitively know the probability of life forming on a planet. Is that not arrogant too? 40 sextillion habitual planets (assuming one per star) is a big number, it's 40e+21, but if the probability of life forming on a habitual planet is 1e-100 then it is more likely we are alone. That's just how the maths works. Since nobody knows the probability of life form, nobody knows if there is any life out there, never mind intelligent life. So why can't we just say, 'I don't know'? We could be unbelievably special, is it not arrogant also to rule that possibility out? We might not special but why do we need to make an emotional appeal and insist that if a person disagrees with you its arrogance? That's not a fact based argument.

It could be something like, it might have to be something like that, but we don’t know either. The odds of life self generating in lab conditions will be much higher than outside a lab where you have a range of factors working against the formation of life. I bring up the immense odds of life occurring as a counterpoint to the view that it’s obvious that the universe is full of life. I tried calculating (4^500000)x(20^40000) and it won’t compute - just gives infinity. The process probably needs a non-random element, i.e. something innate in physics, chemistry, that causes these molecules to form in a way that it removes a lot of randomness. Even then the odds are going to be big.

The whole thing is mind blowing. My brain isn’t capable of understanding the vastness of space of the understanding the sheer scale of some of these probabilities. Bringing it back down to earth. Biologist Craig Venter who worked to sequence the human genome has also been working of trying to understand the minimal number of genes for life. Right now, for a living cell to exist under controlled, aka ‘perfect’ environmental conditions, they believe a cell needs 473 genes coded for on just over 500,000 DNA base pairs. For those genes to work the DNA base pairs have to be in the right order to produce functioning proteins, because if even one protein doesn't function correctly the cell dies, or cannot reproduce and dies from old age. Randomly having those DNA base pairs of the 473 genes in the correct order to function has probability of 4 ^ 500,000. On top of that you need a core set of proteins to coexist simultaneously to the DNA to metabolise food for energy. Let’s assume 200 of the 473 genes produce proteins which must be present from time point zero, and the average protein is 200 amino acids which also need to be in the right order. The probability of that also being present randomly is 20 ^ 40,000. The probability of the DNA and protein machinery required for life to randomly orientate correctly = (4 ^ 500,000) x (20 ^ 40,000). Sure there is probably some flex in the coding and arrangements so move the decimal place to the left a bunch. It’s still astronomical randomness for DNA and protein to just be in the right order. That’s assuming the DNA base pairs and amino acids are present in the environment, that these genes and proteins coexist in the same area, and they are randomly gets engulfed in a lipid layer to form a cell. It also assumes no competing forces are working to destroy them like high heat, or acids etc. Life really is amazing.

I posted a video further up. Not sure if anyone watched it - guess not given replies so far. Even if there many trillions of habitable planets, if the chances of life of any kind forming is 10^-100 then it’s more likely there isn’t life in the universe. That’s not even the probability of intelligent life forming. Since nobody knows what the chances of life forming are, then nobody can truly say one way or another. All of this explained in the video posted. To call it arrogant to believe we might be alone is a view I don’t understand. It’s equally arrogant to think you know what the chances of life are of forming and infer from that intelligent life must exist elsewhere. I certainly hope there is intelligent life out there, would be one lonely universe if there wasn’t. If was forced to guess I would guess that there is life too but it’s a total guess.

Why is it extremely arrogant to assume we could be alone in the universe but not to assume that there is other intelligent life?

I refer to him as Bro Rogan for a reason. I like listening to Joe, but he does indulge in the biggest pile of rubbish. I watched his show about the Lost City of Atlantis where his guest claimed that the Richat Structure in Mauritania is (or might be) Atlantis. Joe found the evidence compelling, he may even referred to it as 'overwhelming', but it was a best weak in my view. As a layman to the topic I could think of many alternative explanations that are more simple and more likely. I sure would like the story to be true but the so-called evidence was incredibly light I felt. Yet if you listened to Joe you would think it was case closed. That said, Joe is on the money about a lot of things too. It's easy to pick on the parts that are stupid because there are so many of them over the years. He has reigned in a lot of his wild views.

These are very different examples. The earth was proven to be spherical long before we went into space, it was deductible through observation and maths a long time ago. There is no comparable proof that aliens exist, and the hearings might only raise the probability of seeing an alien if aliens are actually here. If aliens aren't actually here then the probability that we see aliens are exactly as they were before the hearings. It doesn't follow that the probability 'definitely just went up' then.

The maths isn’t that clear either. Posted a video below which I stumbled on a few months ago, it goes into some of the maths.

Aliens being here is not a 0 but there are so many other things it could be.

Lol, if it’s Canada you’re just F’d

The only way that renting makes sense is if you are renting a dump or a single bed room. I did the single bed room in a house for a decade when I worked in the city. Even then I’m not sure that the money saved and invested really outperformed by much, if at all. It probably would have been better to put suck up a mortgage and own my own home. More space and enjoyment that’s for sure.

Who thinks they can live in an EFT lol? I’d guess that nearly everyone on the board has at least one home. Anyone I know who has real estate is constantly running after tenants and property fixes etc. I think you’re forgetting how much more relaxing it is to have your money parked in a fund… even if it is a REIT. Strange for a guy who has previously said being able to relax and have fun in life is very important to you - I agree with you btw.

Doesn’t mean he needs to keep raising the rate. Inflation has fallen significantly. To keep raising the rates at this point whilst inflation trends in the direction he wants would be silly IMO.

Strange, why sell so much shares when the company is cannibalising so much outstanding shares? Thanks for info.

How is this trading at a PE of 6? What’s the bad news story?

It’s limited to the SP-500

A thread for things which are interesting but which don’t warrant their own thread. Might even produce actionable ideas. Here is one - I’ve not verified the data: Some of these companies I’ve never even heard of.

How many stocks are on that list and how well do you know them?

There is a difference between production and supply. That Saudis for instance can produce at 10 million a day, supplying 9 million to the market, and putting 1 million in storage. The Saudis have at least 150 million barrels of storage capacity which is currently empty.

economy must not be doing so well

You can be one of the best analytical minds in the game, but if aren’t an optimist you are far less likely to enter a position. Pessimism kills returns, if you think you’re smart enough to call market tops and let good opportunities pass you by you’ll probably not do as well over the longer term. Optimism needs to be balanced by being humble though. Yes there are opportunities but how well does the average member here (myself included) really know about the companies they buy? For my part I can’t buy a name I don’t recognise. Part of my goal in posting here, apart from meeting others, is to expand my universe of knowable stocks. I probably need a few months at a minimum of knowing a company to feel comfortable enough to buy. Many others here are not like that I expect. Which helps explain my current cash problem, the number of stocks I know about and would feel comfortable buying is small.