Sweet

@SharperDingaan we will see in a few months with the 914 for October is released. Yes rig and fracs lower but the Shale bros have been finding ways to get more - somehow.

The EIA weekly is a modelled figure, it’s been wildly out recently but the EIA are changing their methodology. There was a lot of complaining about the ‘adjustment’ getting out of control and conspiracy theories flying around about government fiddling the statistics - there is no evidence it ever did, it’s for the birds. The head of the EIA addressed these issues and said the adjustment was actually under reported crude as a result of the compositional change in US oil production due to shale. See here: Summary: there was a lot condensate not being counted as production by the EIA weekly but which was making its way into inventory because it was being blended with other grades of oil. The EIA 914 monthly report by contrast is not modelled, its production statistics by oil companies which are required by law to file. In July of this year production was 12.99 mb a day. US production had a tendency to accelerate in the second half of the year: https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=MCRFPUS2&f=M I have no problems believe it’s at 13.2 given recent history.

Seems to me that if you have to take out a the DCF calculator it’s probably not worth buying. I think opportunities should be obvious. Exception is maybe growth companies, but even then I’ve never used it.

The Jim Cramer of economists Just exclude all the major life expenses and claim victory lol

Sure I’ve played around with it but I’ve never bought a single stock based on DCF valuation. Was playing around there with the DCF calculator on Guru focus, it uses an 11% discount rate. For those that do use DCF what discount rate do you use?

I’m not convinced they are blowing smoke, again and again the shale bros just keep breaking records. Despite the recent adjustment issues and data quality, the EIA have proven to be far more accurate than the Twitter commentators when it comes to predicting US production volumes. The latest 914 report for July has US production just under 12.99 million barrels, I have no problem believing it’s at 13.2 million barrels currently.

Takes a rare person to not let money change them. Very humble and never did it for attention or acclaim. Role model for sure.

If we are in a rising rate environment, as he seems to be suggesting, why wouldn’t bonds you buy now go down also? Yes, you can redeem at par depending on the redemption date and flip, but there is some equity out there yielding 5%+ at relatively low PEs that I think could outperform bonds. I think bonds make more sense now if you believe a recessions and rate cuts are coming.

Long term I think Biotech is going to be a good long term bet and I expect the sector to grow faster than the rest of the economy. However I think the higher rates are only just working through the sector. I don’t believe we are at near the bottom - I could be wrong. It’s very difficult to stick pick in the sector so I’d almost rather bet via an etf and maybe pick a choose a few favourites at a much smaller allocation.

I find it unlikely that Israel will strike out in any way which risks its survival as a state. Going solo against Iran without Western support is an enormous risk. We will see.

I’ve no idea @Malmqky I just don’t see a major war as the most likely outcome.

My thinking is this. Israel will need Western arms and support if there is a large scale war in the Middle East. I don’t think they take any action without running it by their Western partners. Example - if they strike against Iran they will make sure that the Americans at the very least are in their corner and willing to go to war with Iran too.

I didn’t say they would let it go unavenged. In fact I said they would seek revenge.

Israel will not be doing anything without Western approval IMO. They are hot right now, but I expected more measured revenge later, rather than a spillover war.

Incredible person.

The average age of Ukrainians solders in the front line is over 40. So far the youth haven’t been mobilised, Zelenskyy wants to try and spare many as many of he can from the frontline. Ukraine would be wise to not allow Russia any rest this Winter. With the benefit of hindsight the US was right, they should have kept pushing last year.

I’m sure the board is well aware already

^ interesting take, I get what he means but…

Yes, those who stay within their lane and are humble enough to know that predicting macro is bloody hard. So yes, Buffett, Munger, Marks etc

There is precisely no one who can predict macro calls with any degree of accuracy over a long period of time. Burry got one thing right but has been wrong many times since. Gross has been wrong for at least a decade. Druckenmiller also wrong so many times I can’t count. Gundlach, Hussman, Faber… all just wrong way more often than not. Jim Cramer is at least an optimist and as a result has been directionally right in stocks for the last 15 years in-spite of all his other gaffs - kinda funny.

Same, I also think he is full of it.

How much are Saudis keeping off the market at the moment?

Swear there are people just picking some new metric or term to generate clicks. This is all meaningless crap.

I don’t know about Ray. I’ll listen if he is taking about finance but he goes into changing world orders and all that other stuff that he can’t possibly know or predict.