Sweet

Regionals got slammed across the board today. Not liking what Powell had to say.

I consider it fraud yes, because he deliberately deceived clients and moved it into a hedge fund which he wasn’t authorised to do. He was supposed to be a custodian of deposits but he was fiddling the books to fund his hedge fund.

FTX funds were siphoned into the hedge fund without the knowledge of the clients. No way that’s legal.

Regarding not telling others what stocks I own. That might seem like a strange approach on an investing board, even selfish, so let me clarify. It’s not that I won’t share an analysis, my views or an idea on a stocks. It’s just I won’t actively broadcast that I own a specific company because I don’t want to defend it. If someone asks me directly what I own I will of course tell them probably via PM. I’ve a lot of respect for the many great posters here who can tell others their exact stock positions, their respective weightings, and still have a clear frame of mind when looking at the stock. I’m afraid I’ve found out that I’m just not good at that yet. PS - I once told my in-laws what I owned and they were checking the my stock price every day and sending me articles. They used to tell my wife ‘I think he should sell it’. It pissed me off. I never told them I sold it so they probably still think I own it . Lesson learned.

I’m not consistent but I’m trying to be 1) fully invested unless there is an exceptional reason not to be, 2) to ignore the noise and compelling doomsday macro predictions which are nearly always wrong, 3) to be patient and buy good companies when they are on sale, 4) to buy something I know and I’ve thought about owning before, this way I can stomach the swings, and to 5) hold it as for as long as there are no better opportunities. In terms of how that is implemented in practice Vinod1 recently described my thinking almost exactly. I don’t think I can write it up better than he did so here is what he wrote: After many years I’ve come to the same view as Vinod1. Sitting with a cash position hasn’t worked for me. When choosing a stock it has to be has to pass the ‘holy shit why are people not buying this’ gut check. If I’m cracking out the excel sheet and cranking numbers into a DCF just to make sure I’ve a ‘margin of safety’ then I almost certainly don’t have a margin of safety. It should be obvious. Generally I don't like small positions. I had a five bagger in a month once, but the position was less than 1% when I took it - so who tf cares - I was still poor. I normally size stocks at 10% - 25% but sometimes I’ve been 100% into a sector index that’s been hit by a wrecking ball. I’m generally adverse to leverage but I might use it one day. I’m not that old either so I can be fairly aggressive when an opportunity arises, but I’ll have to turn it down as the years slip by. I also don’t tell people the stocks I actively own. My insights aren’t that interesting, but more importantly it allows me to be detached from the stock. I can pull the cord on that sucker anytime I want and don’t have to defend that decision to anyone. If I’m pimping said stock it makes it much harder to sell it.

When you say not in the stock market yet what do you mean? When rates were rising we had a decent correct across stocks.

Was this meant for the indexing thread? Agree btw.

Yeh its not by much for sure. I am not cap weighted indexed right now because the Mag7 are just soo much of the index. I think there are times when it is better to be equal cap weighted and now might be one of them.

On indexing in general, you have to choose the right country, the right sector, the right indexing approach. Some indexing, like buying Europe, has worked poorly compared to US indexes. Someone pointed out one time that the rules of the SP-500 meant that it acted like a giant trading algorithm that cuts losers and allows winners to run. I thought that was very perceptive and accurate and it helps explain its success. But indexes with a slight rule change, such as equally balanced rather than market cap weight ETFs aren’t as good as cutting losers and allowing winners to run. Wrt the indexes I’ve looked at, generally equally weight underperforms marketcap weighted. My preferred index would be to hold the Nasdaq but unfortunately you have to get the timing right because valuations can go crazy at times.

I have historically sat in a large amount of cash to wait for investments that can take a very long time to appear. I realised about 2-3 years ago that the approach you described is optimal - easier said than done though.

I feel like we have already had a landing and it’s soft.

Land is something I’ve wanted to own. That’s significantly cheaper than land in the UK- about 4x cheaper by my estimates. Something I would seriously consider if I lived stateside.

Thanks @Lucaand others who provided an explanation of how and why they use leverage

For those who are using leverage how are you using it? Are you protecting against downside? Is diversification more important with leverage? Doesn’t leverage work against you when the market drops - how do you avoid this? I don’t think I can use leverage competently.

I don’t use leverage but I don’t think using leverage is stupid. I just don’t yet feel comfortable using it.

You seemed to suggest I look in the mirror, that’s why I said what I did. I don’t believe I’ve made an arrogant statement.

Valuearb didn’t call him arrogant. I did. And I didn’t say that statement… so.

I have more of an issue with the ‘anyone who disagrees with me is clueless’ type of attitude, than the comment from valuearb. Whether someone is a genius is subjective, and I’d think you’d agree with me that there are other computer applications more complex than Bitcoin. In the investing / trading sphere I find it unique to the crypto world that whenever an adherent of Bitcoin finds someone they disagree with the ‘you don’t understand’ trope is more often and more quickly wheeled out.

I’m ok with people posting what they want. If there are a few pages of talking about Apple and Berkshire that’s ok. It’s just people working through investment ideas which I think is entirely part of what this thread was supposed to be.

No wachtwoord, it’s your arrogant attitude and the manner you disagree with others.

Oh do shut up wachtwoord. Arrogance overload.

It’s grown more than 20% over 10 years, but I agree with your thinking on it valuearb

what % was the coke position at the peak?

That’s not like the question and discussion we are having about Apple which is one of valuation and future returns. They answered a question about portfolio concentration. No doubt it’s a great company, and no doubt Berkshire would have a problem deploying 140 billion if they sold, but the question is - Apple, flat revenue, 32 PE?

I said I exercised the options, so no, it was ended up a stock position that took a big dive whilst I was trying to be clever by splitting it between tax years.