Ballinvarosig Investors
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Posts posted by Ballinvarosig Investors
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Have been selling a lot of things and am at 70% cash.
Like a few of you, I have sold out of BRK.B. Selling at this P/B has always provided an opportunity to buy in cheaper later.
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https://www.yetanothervalueblog.com/s/yet-another-value-podcast
Andrew Walker's Yet Another Value podcast is the best investing podcast out there.
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Have been dumping a few things, one of which was brk.b.
History says it's trading at a very expensive range when looking at it from a PB basis. Hoping to get a chance to buy back in at the 290 level.
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Good riddance
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https://www.foreignaffairs.com/china/xi-jinping-china-weakness-hubris-paranoia-threaten-future
Must read article on what's going on in China politically. Is Xi really the man you want to hitch your wagon to?
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Maybe it's like Herbalife, the distribution needs to be tightly controlled?
Honestly, I never understood See's. I tried it at the Berkshire meeting and found it far too rich for my taste, I think the box I brought home ended up in the bin.
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On 5/16/2022 at 5:24 PM, berkshiremystery said:
Michael Burry (Scion Asset Management, LLC) filed today again. Cheers!
https://fintel.io/i/scion-asset-management-llc
https://www.sec.gov/edgar/browse/?CIK=1649339
https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/0001649339/000156761922010747/0001567619-22-010747-index.htm
COLUMN 1 COLUMN 2 COLUMN 3 COLUMN 4 COLUMN 5 COLUMN 6 COLUMN 7 COLUMN 8 VALUE SHRS OR SH/ PUT/ INVESTMENT OTHER VOTING AUTHORITY NAME OF ISSUER TITLE OF CLASS CUSIP (x$1000) PRN AMT PRN CALL DISCRETION MANAGER SOLE SHARED NONE ALPHABET INC CAP STK CL A 02079K305 18,079 6,500 SH DFND 1,2 6,500 0 0 APPLE INC COM 037833100 35,970 206,000 SH Put DFND 1,2 206,000 0 0 BOOKING HOLDINGS INC COM 09857L108 18,788 8,000 SH DFND 1,2 8,000 0 0 BRISTOL-MYERS SQUIBB CO COM 110122108 21,909 300,000 SH DFND 1,2 300,000 0 0 CIGNA CORP NEW COM 125523100 17,971 75,000 SH DFND 1,2 75,000 0 0 DISCOVERY INC COM SER C 25470F302 18,728 750,000 SH DFND 1,2 750,000 0 0 GLOBAL PMTS INC COM 37940X102 9,127 66,700 SH DFND 1,2 66,700 0 0 META PLATFORMS INC CL A 30303M102 17,789 80,000 SH DFND 1,2 80,000 0 0 NEXSTAR MEDIA GROUP INC CL A 65336K103 14,362 76,200 SH DFND 1,2 76,200 0 0 OVINTIV INC COM 69047Q102 16,221 300,000 SH DFND 1,2 300,000 0 0 SPORTSMANS WHSE HLDGS INC COM 84920Y106 2,673 250,000 SH DFND 1,2 250,000 0 0 STELLANTIS N.V SHS N82405106 9,762 600,000 SH DFND 1,2 600,000 0 0 Burry shorting Apple is interesting, especially when Buffett increased his position a touch.
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6 hours ago, gfp said:
Thanks!
I had thought Allianz was the most likely one.
Munich Re has really good numbers too, but Buffett sold it a few years back, which made me think he wouldn't want to get back into it. I mean how often does he sell something, only to buy back in later?
BASF is one I would need to look into more. I did look at it and it looked cheap, but it was a bit lumpy and isn't really growing.
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On 5/3/2022 at 5:13 AM, r.ph.schaefer said:
"Buffett also said at the meeting that Berkshire had bought shares in three German companies in the first quarter, but didn’t disclose the names."
Any ideas what stocks these might be? I know, it's just speculation at this point...
Should be easy enough to create a shortlist. There's only 70 German companies with a market cap of greater than $5bn. Doubt Buffett would go lower than that.
- Allianz is a high quality insurer that consistently writes at a combined ratio of under 100. Trades at 10x earnings, buys back stock. Anaemic growth however.
- Adidas has improved their business in the last few years, increased margins, now buying back stock. Doesn't look much different than something like Nike, which makes me think this one isn't likely. You'd think if Buffett was interested, he'd stick with the ones he knows better.
- Knorr Bremse is quite a bit smaller than the above, but it's reasonably priced, it's got some growth, reasonably stable operating margin. They don't buy back stock, but they don't issue it either. We know Buffett likes railways, why not train makers too?
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Unilever getting smashed up at the moment on the back of an acquisition the market hates. Well below Buffett's buy-out from from 4 years ago, it was already the cheapest large consumer brands company going, now it's cheaper again. Looks tempting.
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15 hours ago, hellowod said:
The profile seem to indicate Stanton, due to history and family loyalty, basically went all in to invest into BRK, sound like a hero, but in the end it was all for nought?
It's not quite as black and white as that. Berkshire had a long history of share buy backs and dividends before Buffett arrived, so while Stanton was committed to the textile business, capital was being returned to shareholders throughout.
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6 hours ago, nickenumbers said:
Does anyone have thoughts or information about the status of their co-hosting?
Bill Brewster did a podcast with Preston and they discussed it.
TIP began as a traditional value investing podcast, but then crypto became a thing. Investing and crypto have two very different audience's, so they made a decision to side pocket the crypto material away from the main investing channel. Both Stig and Preston like crypto, but Preston likes it more, so he's now fronting the crypto section. It's all very amicable, they just realised two things are going in different directions.
The irony is that the crypto stuff they do is 10x more popular than the traditional "main" content.
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2021 Q1 13-F out - https://www.dataroma.com/m/holdings.php?m=BRK
Very little buying activity there.
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Justin Sun, the 30-year-old crypto entrepreneur who bought $10 million worth of GameStop Corp.
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The GameStop position is now worth just $2 million, Sun said.
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“I think I’m going to hold. Even if I lose money on the GME stock, I still believe this is a paradigm shift,” Sun said in an interview with Bloomberg Television.
Wow.
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I really hope that Prem is standing on a table somewhere in Fairfax HQ with his team of traders around him, beating his chest and telling the assembled traders that he wants them to ram shares of Blackberry down the necks of the WallStreetBets crowd. Epic Wolf of Wall Streets-style ;D
Seriously though, this is a once in a lifetime opportunity for Fairfax. We've stood by this thing for 8 years for no reward. If the market wants to take us out, then let it take us out.
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Here is what Buffett and Munger said in 1999 about buying a group of pharma stocks at below market multiple:
Yes, they might be trading at below market multiple, especially if you compare to some tech stocks, but these pharma stocks are not cheap.
If he's buying a basket of pharma stocks, then I wonder has he bought more than the ones listed in this 13F?
I would not be at all surprised if he's bought Glaxo (London listed) and Sanofi (Paris listed). Both are good companies and would fit into his basket approach. He has also owned both before, and both are arguably cheaper than when he owned previously. He could have bypassed the 13F listing requirement by buying both stocks on the local exchanges, something he has done before (Tesco).
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Ted Aronson the latest to shut his fund - https://www.ai-cio.com/news/recovery-will-tougher-good-investments-persist/
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Bought some AEL
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Bought a small position in Fitbit.
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Lot of reduction in financials.
And interestingly, bought barrick gold.
Gold bugs are all aflutter on Twitter, but the position size here is only $500m, which suggests it's either Ted or Todd.
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Yeah, it seems like he either dumped Wells or JPM (or a lot of both). Sold 2% of JPM as of last 13F, so could be continuation of that. I think JPM basis is $6 billion and some change. The Wells would have triggered like a billion realized gain this quarter, I think if he closed out the position.
If Berkshire had sold out of WFC, surely they would have had to file a 13D to indicate that their stake is below 5%?
I think he probably sold quite a bit of WFC, but I wouldn't be surprised if he blew out JPM entirely. Out of all Berkshire's financials, JPM are probably the most exposed to unsecured consumer lending, which is probably not a place where you want to be in this environment.
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Started buying a starter position in LLOY at 30p today. Trading at nearly half of tangible book value now. Its dividend and buy back program has been suspended which has shaken out a lot of the income investors and removed some of the positive momentum. They have already taken a lump of covid related impairments in their Q1 results with more to follow in Q2 - even at that they will still be very well capitalised. Of all the British lenders, they would have one of the most conservative books and are probably akin to the likes of a WFC. If we get to a scenario where Lloyds is in trouble, that is the day when most of the rest of the UK banking system is in even worse shape and we're looking at mass nationalisation like we saw in 2007. If Lloyds can weather this crisis like I think it can, then it's trading about about 5-6x normalised earnings. My guess is that it could be a double in 2 years at these prices.
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While I understand that WEB is focused on getting through this crisis instead of repurchasing shares, if they are unwilling to support the prices at these levels through a repurchase, doesn't that also imply that the premium to book value isn't that big? Either that or if he wants to hold additional liquidity, maybe book value may actually come down?
Not sure what you mean by this. As per the above post, it looks like he's bought back 1.2% of stock in Q2. This is pretty meaningful activity if you ask me.
what are you selling today?
in General Discussion
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No tax due, it's in my retirement account. A big portion of the book value increase is going to be Apple, nearly $25b for that alone. The outsized exposure at that valuation makes me uncomfortable.