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ERICOPOLY

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Posts posted by ERICOPOLY

  1. On 3/2/2023 at 3:08 PM, Ross812 said:

    I always pay special attention to @wabuffo@Parsad, and @ERICOPOLY.  Eric hasn't posted seriously in a while, but go back in the archives and read his option/warrant plays on BAC and I owe a good chunk of my NW to him. For ideas I drill through ownership filings on TIKR. I make a game out of looking at high conviction positions for minor funds and reverse engineering their position. Going through their previous wins and losses gives me a pretty good idea of their game plan. 

     

    I also hold a lot of the popular stocks mentioned on COBF because you all make it so damn easy to keep up with stuff. Shout out to @Gregmal for some great RE ideas (APTS), though I'm still not convinced about JOE.  

     

    That thread is the last one I would say that I really focused my efforts on.  Since that time, I sort of checked out of investing actively for maybe 5 years and trying to get back into it...  I just haven't had the passion I once did and it has been refocused to other areas of my life.

  2. On 12/6/2022 at 6:48 PM, Parsad said:

     

    I agree.  But most changes in society's behavior usually starts with the annoying preening from progressives. 

     

    Most of us change our behavior once it is forced upon us, guilted into it, or it simply becomes easy to do...think recycling, driving electric cars, emission testing, energy efficient appliances, heating with natural gas instead of coal or oil, reducing water consumption, reducing garbage, eating organic foods, better farming practices, etc. 

     

    Maybe the revolver at times should be aimed at ourselves for being late to action!  Cheers!

     

    Natural gas!!  OMG!!!  I can feel the sea levels rising as I read those words.  SMUD (in Sacramento) is giving away $3,500 HVAC rebates to households who install variable speed heat pumps to replace their natural gas systems: 

     https://www.smud.org/en/Rebates-and-Savings-Tips/Rebates-for-My-Home/Heating-and-Cooling-Rebates

     

    California moves to ban natural gas furnaces and heaters by 2030:   

    https://www.latimes.com/business/story/2022-09-23/california-moves-to-ban-natural-gas-furnaces-and-heaters-by-2030

  3. 17 hours ago, Spekulatius said:

    COVID-19 death don’t explain the increase in mortality, at least does not only most of it.

     

    It has been reported that covid can damage organs.  Maybe later on you die from this damage (the straw that broke the camel's back) but it isn't linked back to covid.

  4. 36 minutes ago, Ross812 said:

    @ERICOPOLY I hope samsung has worked out the kinks in their refrigerator line. We have a french door model, purchased in 2013, and the refrigerator fan freezes up causing it to get too warm which freezes up the ice maker. Samsung had a couple of service bulletins but they didn't solve the issue. 

     

    We have model RH22H9010SR, also purchased around 2013 and it doesn't do that.  But we own one with the same problem as yours and we left that behind when we moved recently.

  5. Today I paid $48 for a $1,499 Samsung Bespoke counter-depth refrigerator at Home Depot.

     

    It was part of my 6 appliance order, and the bundle discount for 6 or more Samsung appliances is $750.   If you only buy 5 Samsung appliances the bundle discount is $500.  So I was given an additional discount of $250 for appliance #6.

     

    In addition, I got $500 off for purchasing a Bespoke refrigerator as part of the bundle.  The one I purchased was on sale for $798, reduced from $1,499.

     

    $798 - $500 - $250 = $48.

     

    And delivery+install is free too.

     

  6. On 6/15/2022 at 10:50 PM, Viking said:

    CPI is just a math equation. Help me understand what component will be coming down any time soon? Shelter? Energy? Food? Or are you thinking along the lines of something like  ‘immaculate conception’? That will bring it down?

     

    Shelter is an interesting one because there is an undersupply of it and higher interest rates add to the cost of new units.  That should necessitate higher rents.

  7. 14 minutes ago, Gregmal said:

    That’s what’s funny. Amongst all the talk of these inflation based theories on what’s gonna blow up, it’s the Apples and Costcos and Waste Managements that are still outperforming. Meanwhile the MSGEs, not to mention telcos and build supply companies with stupid FCF yields have been annihilated. By the time Costco gets to $300 or Apple to $100 MSGE is gonna be a penny stock lol. Markets are great ain’t they? Seems the fund money is betting that the Fed amputates the patients arm to cure the issue of a hangnail. Weird times. 


    my guess is MSGE continues to drop at 2x the market rate and bottoms around $27-$30.  Just because.

  8. 1 hour ago, Gregmal said:

    I guess just one semi relevant question I’d have on the logic of “the E falling off the market next year”….why are we giving so much weight to one year in the grand scheme of things?

     

    Because it never fails to drive the market down by way more than reasonable.

     

     

  9. 17 minutes ago, Spekulatius said:

    I personally think we are getting to the point where owning a single family home will be the exception not the rule. the building codes and lack of available land make sure of this. Short of a  trend where many  move back to the countryside which would reverse hundred of years of urbanization. the result is probably more multi family and apartments down the road.

     

    In a way housing demand is a bit flexible too - yes you need a roof over your head, but a family can live with 1000 Sqft of 300 sqft and the amount of living space is a lifestyle choice to some extend.

     

    Then there are factors impacting demand like institutional buying of single family homes which I actually think will lead to a higher possibility of a crash down the road, or the AirBnB trend which could run into trouble with city/town regulations.

     

    The trouble is that small homes aren't even allowed in most towns.  In most areas you aren't allowed to build a one bedroom 400 sqft home.  It's bizarre.  I mean, there's all this public hand wringing about housing affordability but then there are rules literally requiring your home to be larger than you need and therefore less affordable.

     

  10. 1 hour ago, Gregmal said:

    I guess part of the thing too that’s baffled me on the inflation front is how much of the complaints circle around things that are 100% discretionary items. Restaurants have to be like the number one example of how “out of control” inflation is, and it’s like ok step back a minute. When TF did everyone become entitled to restaurant dining? And I guess whenever they felt it a basic human right, when did they decide that it should be cheap?

     

    Restaurants are the prime example of shut down/start up/ shut down/start up crap that went on during COVID and the varying effects of such on the business. Does anyone remember the kind of antics that went on early with COVID and hospitality? Total shutdown. Now bring back 20%. Pay as always shit. Ridiculous restrictions, masks, distancing. Waiters don’t make money at 20% capacity. Prices had to go up because of all the meddling and interference. So many people in that line of work just tired of it and moved on to other fields. But now we thinks it’s because of inflation? 


    restaurant inflation is worse than it looks because they have replaced service with technology — QR code menus, order from an ipad at the table.

     

    when is the Fed going to factor this into inflation?  They adjust computer prices to account for technology when it lowers the CPI.

  11. 13 minutes ago, Gregmal said:

    What’s funny now though is for instance lumber….crushed. Should help make housing more affordable right? Nope, thanks Fed!

     

    I'm a bit interested in what will happen with rents.  There is a shortage of housing and your option to buy is gone with the rates going up and prices not coming down enough to compensate.  So your only option is to rent, so won't rent go up?

  12. 16 minutes ago, Gregmal said:

    High prices aren’t inflation. Is a Ferrari or Patek “inflation”?

     

    Well, I think it makes more sense to look at the cheapest available and see if prices have moved up.  For example, the Walmart store brand beans labeled "Great Value" (kidney, pinto, black, great northern) were only 50 cents a can two years ago.  I know because I buy them for my chili.

     

    Now they are 78 cents per can.  50 to 78 in two years.

     

     

  13. 25 minutes ago, Gregmal said:

     If $14 Burgers cause a recession, so be it. Deliberately causing one, which I won't go as far as to say thats what the Fed is doing, but theyre getting close, is abominable. 

     

    I really don't know what their options are.  If they don't cause a recession then they're left with rising wages in a tight labor market, and then there is the wage price spiral to worry about.

  14. 49 minutes ago, Parsad said:

     

    Yes, in the short term bonds have collapsed, but that's now made for a great investment opportunity, not only for small investors, but institutions that were craving more interest income.  

     

    In the meantime, families are gut punched by the mark-to-market losses and cutting back.  Reverse wealth effect.  They will cut back on meals out, etc...  They are thinking less about their higher earnings yields, and thinking more about the $20k or $50k or $200k that they just 'lost'.  They feel less confident and want to eat Costco food court instead of $14.00 at Burger King for the double bacon stacker king meal large size.

     

    When did Burger King become a $14 meal?  I mean, it's crazy.  

     

     

  15. I did have some success on the purchasing front:  I got a box of New Zealand lamb from Costco priced at $9.63 per pound

    https://www.costco.com/new-zealand-spring-lamb-grass-fed-lamb-premium-selection-box%2c-9.63-lbs.product.100784602.html

     

    I like lamb better than steak anyway.  So go stick it up your chaps ranch boys!

     

    It's interesting that Australian lamb is going for $40 a pound:

    https://www.costco.com/rastelli-grass-fed-frenched-lamb-racks%2c-24-oz%2c-6-pack%2c-9-lbs.product.100652542.html

     

    If you take that price of $40 a pound and apply it to the 3 pounds of lamb rack that's included in the box that I bought, then I got the leg and the chops for free.

     

    But I get it... that Australian rack is meatier rack and that's where the premium went presumably.  However, I wasn't sold.

  16. 4 minutes ago, Parsad said:

     

    Markets tend to correct well ahead of the earnings turn down...so much of that is baked in already.  Will there be further pain...most likely.  To the depths of 2002 or 2009?  I don't think nearly as bad.  The reason being that much of the excess overvaluation has corrected. 

     

    We also aren't facing institutional failures like in 2008/2009.  U.S. mid-cap/large-cap corporations are probably the healthiest they've been heading into a downturn in history.  So the primary adjustment to earnings and valuation is interest rate and inflationary pressure...not poorly operating or financially unsound companies.

     

    I was 60% cash in November 2021...now I'm 90% invested in quality companies that I find are well undervalued.  Cheers!  

     

    In 2002, the consumer had losses in equities, but I think bonds were offsetting some of those losses and real estate was soaring throughout the country. 

     

    Today, the entire sky is falling with nothing doing well to offset it.

  17. 1 minute ago, changegonnacome said:

     

    US economy is best positioned, yes for sure.........the US stock market not so much.......just given (1) its relative valuation starting point vs. Europe/Asia i.e. expensive (2) SPY/QQQ's & significance of global economy to revenues & more importantly earnings growth. Not a good mix.

     

    Yes, that's so true.  Exports are going to suck tremendously.

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