seshnath
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Posts posted by seshnath
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It seems to me that investing in India would be quite a useful portfolio diversification. Reading Sanjay Bakshi's discussion of investing in Indian subsidiaries like Unilever has certainly whetted my appetite.
As a non-resident non-Indian (although with a long ago documented Indian ancestor) what would a reasonable way of investing. (Fairfax India never cut it for me frankly.)
You can invest directly in Indian stocks as a foreigner. Only question is - are you willing to take the currency risk?
I can assist in setting up an account.
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Racemize and I are looking for any boardmembers interested in getting some online bridge games going. Nothing serious-- just for fun. We're not pros by any stretch! If you're interested just PM one us. We're thinking we can join up on Google hangout and then dive into a game.
Would love to join at bridgebase - am seshnath - these days I play infrequently - expecting it to change by jan middle.
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I play on bridgebase - seshnath is my handle there as well. I have tried okbridge - didn't like it - poor customer service as well.
I use Bridge Baron to learn - highly recommend that.
Buffett recommended book I have read is Why you lose in bridge? - it is an exercise in inversion - would recommend reading that after you feel comfortable with the game.
I also try to play MABC regional held around the 4th of July.
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Coursera (https://class.coursera.org/modelthinking-2012-002/class/index) is offering their Model Thinking course again.
I enjoyed it when I took it last winter.
Netnet - I had registered last winter as well. Didn't get a chance to go through - am doing it now.
A synthesis of Dawkins' writings and cellular automata rule throws up interesting explanations for me.
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I always assumed WEB liked Jack Welch.
It's not that he doesn't like Jack Welch. He's just interjecting in a debate and trying to enlighten...kind of like how everyone on here does! ;D Cheers!
Anyone hear of the "Alwaleed of Omaha" story? It seems when Al-Waleed, the Saudi owner of Kingdom Holdings told WEB that he was especially proud when called "Warren Buffett of the Gulf", WEB replied that he was proud when he was called "Al Waleed of Omaha". To me, that is the take downs of all take downs from WEB with all its subtlety and humor. (I read this story in some Middle East newspaper a year or so ago)
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There is also the choice of voting for your guy and finding another job in the next three years.
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I really like the CEO, and would love to buy stock in this company. I think the Israel move will be a success.
http://www.charlierose.com/view/content/11323
I have been following this guy and better place for some time since I heard a TED talk - concept is interesting.
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I am with you, Sanjeev. Though, I have to admit I was pleasantly surprised to see their store in DC's Dulles Airport this July and glad that I was flying home with something better than bling-blings for my wife.
Interestingly, the good ones cost about $17, while the inferior Dulles ones were $30.
I thought so - I had only bought before at Omaha and probably, once at a store in west coast. So I didn't have a good way to compare.
My choice was go back to India with See's (old or not) or without them. Shipping costs to India are high enough to justify the price, though.
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I think the Presidency is much more than thinking in probabilities. For a money manager, a businessman or professor and others who do need to work with others this is great as they can go against the crowd and succeed. However, the US system is not set up like a corporation or kingdom. You have to work with others and enjoy that process to really make an impact. That is why Clinton and Reagan succeeded and Obama has not. It doesn't matter if you have the best ideas if you can't work with others who think differently than you, you will be in constant battle mode. This cannot be fun and you can take for the team only so long.
Packer
It was a besides all this - he is talking about probabilities, was the point I was making. I have never read about a POTUS doing this after Eisenhower - I have read Reagan, Ike and Bush memoirs/biographies. Don't know about Clinton (more like, don't care to know)
The guy got the popular vote and electoral college once should tel you the obvious.
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I'm not too keen on the company's plan to expand widely relatively quickly. You diminish the brand a bit that way, especially in a highly competitive and somewhat localized industry.
I remember speaking to Chuck in the past, and he said it was incredibly important to See's to maintain the quality of their chocolates from location to location. You add days to delivery and that reduces the quality. You then have to open more and more factories or warehouses, and that adds business risk. The industry is very fractured from city to city. There is always a hometown favorite that is dominant, and has significant history and nostalgia behind the brand.
So See's had deliberately chosen to grow slowly, allowing the brand to organically enter other markets as residents in those regions became more and more familiar to the brand by visiting stores just outside their area. It's why I will drive two hours to Seattle to buy chocolates at Christmas instead of buying boxes at hometown favorites Purdy's or Rogers Chocolates. You plop one down in Miami and it just isn't going to do that well. Cheers!
I am with you, Sanjeev. Though, I have to admit I was pleasantly surprised to see their store in DC's Dulles Airport this July and glad that I was flying home with something better than bling-blings for my wife.
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I'm sure many of you have already read this, but just in case you haven't, here it is:
http://www.vanityfair.com/politics/2012/10/michael-lewis-profile-barack-obama
As you might expect, it's a pretty good read.
Thanks for posting. Am reading it now. Love Michael Lewis writing style.
Obama talking risk management and probabilities - No wonder WEB said that the country is in good hands or something similar to that effect during the elections four years ago.
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Speaking about Greece, I hope someone on this board can give me their thoughts about OTE (Hellenic Telecom Organization S.A.) the Greek telecommunication company. (OTCBB: HLTOY)
(This isn´t an investment idea, so I didn´t want to post it in that section.)
- The business is clearly suffering and in decline, but the company trades for about 2x FCF.
- 40% of it´s stock is owned by Deutsche Telekom AG
- The company has an substantial amount of debt on their books.
The biggest risk would be, if Greece exits the Euro. Then the debt will still be denominated in Euro but the company would take in only "Drachmen" (or whatever they will call the new currency). And this new currency will definitly devalue against the Euro. On the other hand, they have a strong partner in Deutsche Telekom AG. So maybe even in this worst-case situation the company could survive.
Any comments are welcome.
I picked HLTOY when it went below a buck. Doubled the money just now - sold a half of my position recently to redeploy funds in other opportunities. I am holding on to the other half. I liked it at that price for the cash flow and non-greece portion of the business. I see the debt over hang and a share dilution can't possibly be that bad, again at my buy price.
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Gents as often seems to be the case, you have taken my statements out of context. If you re-read what I said, it was "to a certain degree the lack of interest in religion" - I myself am not a super religious person. But you all jumped on it as though I was the next Glenn Beck.
Religion has both good and bad aspects, but the key tenets underlying the abrahamic religions have been extremely important to the development of compassion and a sense of community in societies. And this has been lost by the new generation.
I will agree that marriage is a more important factor, but you must remember that the institution of marriage derived from the abrahamic religions.
I apologise if I offended any of you...
Moore - no offense. You should google for marriage and hindu next time - it predates all abrahamic institutions, if I am not wrong.
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Reminds m of the old saying, "He is a legend in his own mind"
:)
LOL
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Open markets are not just something foreign investors should want!
Well said Roger. I have a good friend of mine who moved to India for a year and is back - he was saying as a foreign investor, you need to be very careful when investing in India. The business earnings is slowing down in India and if you use the new law to invest in stocks directly, could end up becoming a patsy.
I also doubt one can get returns like the past ten years in India where the market went up by 15%/year on the average. Even with 10% inflation and 6% growth - something has to give, either the Indian Rupee depreciates further or the Indian economy becomes noncompetitive as the wages and other costs are going up in double digit rates every year.
This is not to say there aren't ways to make money in the Indian market. In a country of 1.2 billion people, there are bound to be some very successful businesses irrespective of the environment. Finding the right ones will and can make one money.
Shalab, what is that new law your friend is referring to?
I had an Arab client who says that you have to be careful when investing in America (true story!!) - that doesn't make America a bad place to invest. It is true for all cross-border investments. You can find crooks every where; you have lot of other ways of losing money everywhere in the world. You need to hire a real expert; evaluate his call and then decide. It is true for all "open" economies as well.
Rupee depreciation - on average it has lost 3-4% ever since 1991 when the economy opened up. It has been a reality here. According to economist though, if I recall right, Rupee is undervalued by something like 50%.
I don't get this bit about wage inflation - there are so many people around and everyone is eager to work. To me, it is like being in the USA in 1970s - everyone was building in wage inflation because they expect inflation to be high next year. Expectation driven inflation is simple (not necessarily easy) to break as Volcker has shown.
Return of 15% and up is still around - not on your terms though - it is for people who are willing to wait and do the hard work of stock picking. It isn't easy like it was in 2000, 01. Personally, I don't care whether I get 10% this year or -20%, as long as I make a decent return in the next 10 years. Isn't that what value investing is all about, as well?
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Given fear of neo-colonialism in India and China, and fears that large western corporations will create entrenched positions that stifle local companies, I can totally understand reasons for both countries to restrict western investment. But these restrictions will create bifurcation of world trade and less integration. And it's not exactly in India's interest to have it capital account deficit funded by China is it? I would think India would much rather have investors from the US/Canada, western Europe, Australia, and Japan.
And yes, despite all its problems the Indian stock market will probably do very well for saavy domestic Indian investors, such as some members of this board, but many of us are outside of India. Open markets are not just something foreign investors should want!
I doubt if a fear of neo-colonialism is driving anything in India; nor does competition. It is mostly about jobs.
Regarding capital account deficit funding - how do you think it has been happening so far? it is mostly indian diaspora that has been doing it (i don't have numbers to back it up.) Also, going forward I don't expect a capital starved west to fund anything other than social security and old age pensions.
Chinese funding has not been much of an issue around here - despite all you hear in the news, we have good trade with China. Lot of Indian manufacturing companies are setting base in China - which is a good start.
I am with you about open markets (I had od-ed on Ayn Rand.). What when and where is purely a matter of culture and (our) discretion and judgement. My vote will not be for government that kow-tows to whatever is in flavor in the international markets. You don't want another Argentina on your hands, considering the size of the population.
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http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052702304177104577311441951841400.html
I guess the BRICs are going to be BRCs.
As developed world's investors are giving up on BRICs, BRICS recently decided to take matters in their hands. There is a decision to bill mutual trade in own currencies, as a start; better negotiations with IMF etc etc.
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http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052702304177104577311441951841400.html
I guess the BRICs are going to be BRCs.
I hope (and I'm sure others too) that there are more international investors with a similar mindset. Would love to see some multiple compression as I've been sitting on cash for a while and looking to deploy.
Like
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http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052702304177104577311441951841400.html
I guess the BRICs are going to be BRCs.
I guess the BRICs are going to be BRCs.
Famous last words!!!
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Almaty, Kazakhstan -> Florida -> Seattle -> Edmonton, Alberta. Next stop, who knows?
Wow!!!
Me:-
South India -> DC Area -> Kuwait -> South India.
Life has come a full circle :D
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You didnot answer your own question...
Indian markets are not open? check your source - we do a lot of FDIs a year, you know
While all the data points to a system that is not open; not even as open as China which is not democratic. I gave retail as one example, the other one is airlines and the most recent example is retro-active taxes for companies bought out by foreign owners.
Here is an article I found through bing when looking at foreign direct investment in India in retail. Going slow is going to help whom? The people who don't want change and want to maintain the status quo.
All the data points to a system that is not open? What are your data points? I did answer my question - FDI means foreign direct investment. If a country is not open, would there be FDI? Check these out.
http://dipp.nic.in/English/Policies/Policy.aspx
Regarding articles on bing and internet - do you always trust the opinions of whoever you read on internet?
Whether we want our door open 180 degrees or less than that is a matter of culture, history and priorities. Let us talk about the standards for openness - Is US open as it is claimed to be? If so why was there a big hue and cry about Chinese buying a petroleum company or Middle Easterners buying a Port operating company? Why was it blocked? Now that is a door that looks open but is shut right in your face as you walk in.
Each nation has its priorities - we manage based on ours. Investor interests are secondary to interests of voting citizens - that is a reality for a democracy. Which sector is open and to what extent is a policy decision. At least, India is clear about it. The pace at which we go is a matter of judgement - you want to second guess it, be my guest.
And all economic policies by a government by its nature will help someone and harm someone. If you want to look for problems, I am sure you are going to find it everywhere especially with the bias. I don't see any issue here - whether we do it this year or next is a matter of judgement. And nobody has said that we are not going to do it, period.
Retro-active tax changes - it is just clarification, really. Again priorities - we don't care for investors who want to evade a 30% tax by routing transactions through tax havens. If you are a US company/resident, you can't escape the tax net just because you did a transaction in Mauritius. Your global income is taxed.
Also, think about it - Indian saving rate is much higher than most other countries. So where do we look for capital - India or outside. Do we really need people buying s**t they don't need from Walmart or do we push for better infrastructure - you tell me where the priorities should be, if you were managing India Inc.
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India wants to slow purchases of gold, and yet IIRC, China actually encouraged people to buy gold. Interesting, interesting.....
cheers
Zorro
Zorro - it is not about slowing purchase of gold really - it is about systemic risk from single asset loan providers. Slowing purchase of gold in India will be the collateral damage.
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Indian markets are not open? check your source - we do a lot of FDIs a year, you know.
Where did the FDI go to and how does it compare to other countries? India retail sector is one good example where the old style companies are protected by political parties. ( e.g: Walmart, Starbucks etc. )
FDI in retail is in the news for all the wrong reasons - it was not about protecting big family owned companies. It was all about protecting middle level retailers - they provide a lot of jobs - to employees and to small business owners. The retail market is very much fragmented in India - an average retailer does about gross 200,000 per month in a B-class town i.e below metro. The big retailers like Reliance and More are new comers - less than a decade old. You will find a lot of department stores as well. Then there are state run and co-operatives as well competing.
Just because India is slowly opening up at its pace doesn't mean that things are going back to where they were. Between the tiger and the elephant, the latter will be slow. I am glad the regulators follow that pace, instead of being pressurized to chase the prevailing fashion. It has worked well so far (banking sector being one prime example)
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Indian Central Bank just raised the LTV on loans against gold to 60%.
http://rbidocs.rbi.org.in/rdocs/notification/PDFs/CC265_210312.pdf
In 2010, about 2% of gold inventory was with NBFCs.
Anybody else play poker?
in General Discussion
Posted
I started with office poker games and soon migrated to bridge following WEB. I have been an ACBL member since 2005 and make it a point to play in at least one regional/sectional when I am in the US. Other times I play online at BBO with the same handle seshnath.
I am enjoying it so far.
- Nathan