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MrB

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  1. Wintaai Holdings Ltd is the holding company for what will eventually become a collection of insurance and operating companies, but to date it holds one substantial asset, Stonetrust Commercial Insurance Co. Some of the related ground has already been covered in Investmd's thread Chou Dhandho StoneTrust which includes the recent (overly glowing) Forbes article

    We're invested in Wintaai, so I'm going to steer clear of the valuation discussion for now and prefer to have Francis and Mike speak for themselves in the attached letter to shareholders. 

    Probably safe to say you can tag at least another 15% onto the BVPS for Q1 2021. 

     

    Wintaai and Stonetrust Annual Letters (2020).pdf

  2. ^ It is also puzzling that there is a group of people even here that believe that herd immunity is inevitable, yet would not take the vaccine.

     

    It seems to me they it should be clear, that catching the live virus in the wild in a totally uncontrolled setting as far as dose and delivery is concerned is the worst option of all.

    Getting a vaccine that is not a live virus (so it can’t replicate) in a controlled setting and with hopefully known safety data should be much better in almost any scenario, even if the vaccine isn’t perfect in terms of efficacy (catching the virus naturally sure isn’t perfect either).

     

    Getting a vaccine is surely more cost effective than an ICU stay and getting infusions of MAB and Remdesivir.

    Not sure that's true if you vaccinate the 99.9% that would not have died from it anyway or the 98% that would not have contracted the virus anyway v the 0.01% on which you will have to spend for the ICU stays, infusions and what not.

  3. The author is a physicist and a strong writer. The book has a meta framework that cuts across as varied situations/disciplines as species extinction events, forest fires, billionaire rich lists, earthquakes, market crashes, wars, scientific revolutions, sand piles, social networks etc. What's common among them?  Their distributions are all governed by a new branch of physics: Non equilibrium statistical physics that builds upon chaos/complexity theory to show how power law (and some common organising principle) is pervasive across such diverse physical, biological, economic and social systems. Of interest is the concept of self organised criticality in these complex, interconnected systems. Once a system goes critical, small or large upheavals can happen anytime and in an unpredictable way. But their magnitude vs frequency still remains governed by the power laws.

     

    Strikes me as design in the midst of perceived chaos.

  4. In Marks book "Mastering the Market Cycle" - chapter 15 - he mentions that he knows of an investment manager that became very bearish in the late 90s and his firm last a lot of AUM do to his early call. The manager ended up being right and his firm gain in sized again. Marks said the manager became bearish again at the end of 2017 and has lost assets again since that time. Does anyone have any idea who Marks is referring to here?

    Might be Crispin Odey.

  5. Another option which I’m teaching my kids, which I have to admit is hard as a post grad Father of 3, with the oldest being 13, is that it is not necessary to go to Uni immediately after school or at all. It is perfectly fine to start a business, start work or an apprenticeship immediately.  I have to admit though that I find it does not come naturally to teach my kids that Uni is not The way to go.

  6. https://www.cnbc.com/2019/06/26/jamie-dimon-weighs-in-on-student-loan-debt.html

     

    What nonsense! How about taking personal responsibility? Not only Dimon, who is generally sensible, but especially the student.

     

    It's not a disgrace, it's just plain stupid!

     

    If you're stupid enough to sign up for debt or your parents failed to educate you on something as basic as personal finances and the danger of debt in today's day and age then why should society ride to the rescue just because stupidity of this nature spread wide?

     

    So Socialist.

  7. About half of our fund's money invested in India in 3 stocks; two previously discussed here,

    http://www.cornerofberkshireandfairfax.ca/forum/investment-ideas/india-piramal-enterprisespel-in-ajay-piramal-outstanding-capital-allocator/msg312235/#msg312235

    http://www.cornerofberkshireandfairfax.ca/forum/investment-ideas/idfc-ltdidfc-bank-(special-sitspin-off-india)/msg303988/#msg303988

     

    Other company is Shriram Transport Finance in which Piramal also has a stake.

     

    Unfortunately Spekulatius is correct though; nosebleed admin. We just opened an account with Interactive Brokers, which does allow us to trade in India, but it's because we already have a PAN card (tax registered) and you need a local custodian.

     

  8. CHTR and CMCSA. Not today but a  era recent purchases were AKBTY (Turkish bank, small position) and AVX (electronics distributor)

    Outstanding bank. Actually most of the Turkish banks are pretty good. Also Sabanci family has an excellent reputation. Pity about Erdogan though.

  9. Am compiling names with a value-based strategy in equities, that have a strong track record and are based in London. Have you guys come across following names and know more about culture, comp levels, discretion and the usual stuff that cannot be googled in seconds? Please PM me, if you do not want to share your thoughts openly on the shops.

     

    Oldfield Partners

    Marathon Asset Management (not the credit shop)

    Orbis

    Phoenix Asset Management

    Southeastern Asset Management

    Chilton Investment

     

    Thanks

    Yes, except for Chilton, I know all those firms reasonably to very well. Some of them I’ve known for years. Marathon is probably not Marathon anymore after Nomad and then later Jeremy left, but the rest still have their original culture intact. All certainly firms worth emulating.

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