shalab

Can someone post a summary? Thanks!

If the library copy example is anything to go by, you may never get your copy back. My library no longer lends the book.

I got $1300 for mine! Best investment I ever made Reading the book or owning it?

What is the upside for FFH moving forward? If there is a catastrophe ( cyclone, earthquake etc. ), it seems it could hurt FFH. The law of large numbers will also start to affect FFH as its market cap is 8 billion now. Given that FFH will always be a pure insurance play, I think the upside is limited. I would be interested in contrary opinions.

One can buy chinese currency as it will eventually increase in value. Or one can buy commodities futures such as coffee which is consumed irrespective of the financial condition. One can also hold berkshire stock.

Looks like LUK is overvalued when compared to BRK, FFH and WSC.

Guesses on Berkshire intrinsic value after Q3? Looks like WFC stake increased and Conoco stake declined. Also, it looks like the remaining Conoco stake has unrealized gains which is interesting. cheers! Shalab

Good upswing in book value. The stock is trading at 6% discount to book value compared to 3% discount for FFH. cheers! Shalab

See my other post from the yahoo board...

This was an exchange between prez barack obama and veryearly in the yahoo board. It is great because it examines the biases of the snowball author and I think it is right on the ball. --- A few examples, from Schroeder article: Buffett considered the top grading the company's "most precious asset," something he would never do anything to endanger. He has downplayed the loss of the rating in public, but a motive of the Burlington deal is that it allows Buffett to protect his legacy by diluting Berkshire's exposure to financial services.I do not think that Buffett thinks that way. He did not have a motive of protecting berkshire's rating, which is what is implied. He found a deal he liked, and he would throw away the AAA rating in a heartbeat if it made economic sense. Buffett has to be thinking about what that means for his successor, yet another motive. For some time, he has been floating the name of David Sokol, who runs his utility business and NetJets, as a trial balloon (meaning he can yank the string back at any time). He is not floating trial ballons. he has an envelop in his desk. He knows he might get hit by a bus tomorrow. That is not rescindable. Buffett doesn't do trial balloons anyway. He answers to no one. A final motive I am confident about is that Buffett finally has a plausible excuse to split Berkshire's B shares. That's total BS. I know I am talking about it too, but if Buffett wants in the S&P, he would just call them hat in hand, ask what they need, and comply. It is just too easy to do. Actually, he already knows what's needed and he could have made the leap at any moment in the past 20 years if he chose to do so. If this deal includes getting into the S&P, it is not some veiled excuse, a rationalization. No way. If it does happen as a result of this, it can only be because he already made the deal and is simply executing his part of it. Buffett would never admit to wanting Berkshire to join the S&P, but becoming an acknowledged peer to other major companies is part of the path to his legacy. I question who is trying desperately to build or establish a legacy. I say it is the writer. Berkshire is already the greatest company every, and Buffett, the greatest manager ever. His non-membership in the S&P is an embarrassment to the S&P organization and every company in it. Of course, this is about Buffett's ego, but then so are most great achievements. Uh, no, it is not about his ego. The man is as humble as can be. A man who says "I do not know if I would be a thief because I have never been poor enough to have to steal" and "I won the ovarian lottery by being born in the USA and being wired for economics, if I were bron in India I would be poor as dirt still.", is not ego-driven. He feels humble and lucky beyond normal human measure. I could go on and on. Not that I do not like her, I actually do. But I have to reverse-filter everything she says with my own anti-filters to undo her particular corruption of the facts that she witnesses. -p --- In chucks_angels@yahoogroups.com, "veryearly1" <veryearly1@...> wrote: > > --- In chucks_angels@yahoogroups.com, "prez_barack_obama" prez_geo_w_bush@ wrote: > > > > After listening to Alice, and reading more of her work, I am beginning to wonder if she really made such a perfect assessment of Buffett's inner character. You know, we all exercise psychological projection in our daily lives. Maybe she has projected a little more of herself upon Buffett than is really there? > > That's an interesting point. I thought the same as I read Snowball. > > What specifically did you disagree with, just out of curiousity? > > I agree with her commentary today on Bloomberg about why he bought BNI. First and foremost, it's a good investment. > > But I was also thinking that Buffett probably wants to make BRK as idiot-proof as possible before he goes, and that means deploying all the capital if not a little bit more (borrow some so they don't have excess cash too soon). > > I think his move in supercat is driven by opportunity and price, but one can argue that that is also a part of making BRK idiot-proof, as Buffett is perfectly willing to accept large event risk, but his successor(s) may not be. > > VE >

I think it is the derivative risk that got the downgrade although fitch tried to downgrade because of Buffett's age. I do think Buffett has thought through the split issue carefully and I havent seen him do things without reason.

Two things: Berkshire gets 5.4 +billion in interest and dividends per year. Also the subs kick off cash. BNI itself kicksoff 1 billion cash per year. The debt is around 8 billion paid out in three years. Thus the analyst's thinking seems to be a bit off. The splitting may be helpful for shareholders if BRK gets to SP500. There has been more selling than buying recently from foundations such as the Gates foundation. I also think there may be more selling pressure from estate planning people as long term shareholders redo their plans. If Berkshire gets into SP500, then potentially the number of buyers will increase.

WSC is going for book as of 6/30/09. The equities ahve gained atleast 20% since then. cheers! Shalab

Talked to a person that works in USB lending dept for small businesses. He said he is not seeing commercial real estate tanking yet even though occupancy rates have fallen. He says the sellers are holding tight and this may be the last thing to correct before the economy recovers. He thinks most of the damage in residential is already done. cheers! Shalab

The system in the US is broken ( for the patient ) for several reasons: Although the insurance companies are blamed ( they face the customer ), there are numerous parties with large lobbies. Atul Gawade of the "Check List" has written some nice articles on this. He had one where one of the counties in Texas with the lowest per capita income has the highest per capita medical expenditure. It was pretty interesting to read. People are referred to multiple specialists Each specialist will recommend the same tests again and again Although Atul won't say this, the entire system and lobbies are setup for the various constituents who are happy with the current arrangement Recently NPR aired a story on how the drug companies and insurance people are fighting each other. e.g; generics cost $40/prescription and insurance company will pay it in full. The brand will cost $600 for the same prescription but the insurance company will charge $80/copay. Here the drug company will reimburse the customer for $80 and still come out ahead. Then there are the lawyers and others who like the system. The system can't continue as is. Even a multi millionnaire can go bankrupt in the current system in the US without insurance coverage. When my son was born, the first day he had some difficulty breathing and had to be kept under watch for a couple of days in the hospital. Fortunately my insurance covered it, otherwise I would have been down some 50K. cheers! shalab

It is only the emergency stuff that kills you. For non emergency stuff, one can shop around. It is possible to get a bypass surgery done with hospital stay + food expenses costing about $2500 if you are willing to go to India. The doctors are also world class - e.g: Narayan Hridayalaya which was features in business week. There is also the Apollo group which apparently is looking at doing telemedicine. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Apollo_Hospitals If there is enough demand, one can setup a ship in international waters off the US coast and ferry the passengers to that location ;D

The total number of shares outstanding 20.297 million including the new issuance. Not sure if this means the BV will reduce in the next quarter as ORH comes in and was paid a premium to book.

While the results are impressive, not sure if the stock met the whisper estimates from this board. One may say that the whisper estimates were unrealistic to begin with and never have been :-).

People arent worried about succession plans for a guy who is 82 years old and starting from scratch. Amazing.

Question to the board members on the checklist. ( Gawande article ). What checklists people in this board use? I think it is pretty interesting as a whole. cheers! Shalab

While I like WFC and hold it ( along with USB ), I think WFC carries more risk right now than USB. While it is likely that it will play out fine, the risks I see are: 1. TARP related regulation 2. Break up of large banks. ( it is unlikely it will happen but Volcker has recommended it ) 3. TARP not paid thus exposing the company to TARP related regulation Some others I found: http://seekingalpha.com/article/168500-wells-fargo-is-doing-worse-than-it-seems

USB is growing through acquisitions but it is not making first page headline grabbing acquisitions. I think it is in a very strong position mainly because it has paid back the TARP money. WFC is yet to pay it back - although the execs have said they dont want to dilute the existing shareholders, no one knows for sure till it is done. If they dont dilute, the upside is good.

1000 tonnes of gold are held in gold etf reserves. Also, public sentiment affects gold demand/supply. If a lot of people are piling into gold, it is likely that there is already a bubble of some sort. From wikipedia: Given the huge quantity of stored gold, compared to the annual production, the price of gold is mainly affected by changes in sentiment, rather than changes in annual production.[11] According to the World Gold Council, annual mine production of gold over the last few years has been close to 2,500 tonnes.[12] About 2,000 tonnes goes into jewelry or industrial/dental production, and around 500 tonnes goes to retail investors and exchange traded gold funds.[12] This translates to an annual demand for gold to be 1000 tonnes in excess over mine production which has come from central bank sales and other disposal.[12]

Any recommendations on a good bond trading desk? I am using Fidelity right now and I am wondering if people have recommendations on better ones.

Happened to visit Walmart today after a long gap. I found a remodeled shop which looks a lot prettier with wider aisles. Before I would bump into someone or the other with my cart on narrow aisles. The items were re-organized and on the average, they tended to be pricier. It is possible to find deals if you look for them but generally the price levels have gone up compared to where they were a couple of years back. The shop was very crowded with a full parking lot. Some sections like the underwear section were being replenished constantly as the demand seemed pretty high. The service was pretty poor. Got a pair of running shoes for $12. This was a somewhat cheaper item as I couldnt find anything less than $15 two years back. Got fruit of the loom underwear and didnt notice any change in price either. One of the things I could find before was $4 T-shirts which were pretty decent to wear around the home. I couldnt find any of those this time. It was atleast $10 this time around. Looks like the Chinese labor cost has gone up. Found some clothes made in Bangladesh. Electronics has a special section as Walmart successfully has bankrupted circuit city and put pressure on best buy. But prices for things such as watches has gone up. What was available for $5 has gone up to $10. I think target generally has comparable prices and choices. The counters were very busy. The shop looked somewhat better. I noticed hardwood floors and nicer labels. Guess this is where the capex dollars have been going. Expect the capex to taper off somewhat as the hardwood floors dont need replacement every year. cheers! Shalab