rogermunibond

What’s your favorite YT business news channel? I’m quite impressed with the longer 8-12 minute programs from FT, CNBC, and Morning Brew.

Japanese are complaining quite loudly about the wave of gaijin tourists.

Small study shows GLP-1 effect on opioid cravings https://www.statnews.com/2024/02/17/opioid-cravings-glp1-weight-loss-liraglutide-penn-state/#:~:text=Among 20 patients for opioid,the Advancement of Science conference.

Didn't WEB do something similar with Gen Re. First buying shares then the whole thing.

Really good post by Net Interest/Marc Rubenstein on Substack. https://www.netinterest.co/p/banks-in-disguise

What about power generation/utility usage of copper? No substitute for turbine electrical generation or for high voltage transmission cable?

Robert Friedland has been banging the copper bull story for years. If the prices do rise 4-5x, what's the likelihood big substitution effect comes into play - electrical uses of copper move to aluminum or home building uses to PVC etc. The total value of some copper uses in electrical and home building is pretty low right.

Has anyone noted if there is any liabiiity to the owner of Grace Ocean Ltd, which Bloomberg has reported as Mitsui, the Japanese trading house? I suppose the liability insulation is why the trading houses own ships in limited companies.

Commissions have been coming down for a while now already. 1.5% to 2% (3-4%) is pretty standard in my area for seller and buyer agent commissions. If sellers no longer pay the buyer agent, that'd be another huge drop though.

https://www.ft.com/content/5fdef37a-1f5c-4f22-976f-07d9066583db Wild

That’s it, thanks!

Does anyone know the name of the company/website where software engineers can practice writing code and get "credentialed" for having specific software coding skills? I came across the name a few months ago as various software engineers were saying they worked at Google or FB and spent 30% of their time working for the company and 40% on this platform so they could get a better paying gig elsewhere.

Isn't prompt engineering like Google-fu?

Exelon, ComEd, Ameren outlooks lowered by financial firms after regulator rejects grid plans Ethan Howland December 21, 2023·3 min read Moody's Investors Service on Wednesday lowered its outlook on Exelon’s Commonwealth Edison utility subsidiary to negative from stable, citing an “unfavorable” rate case ruling by state regulators. "The outcome of the rate case, which ComEd will likely appeal, indicates that the utility is facing a more contentious and restrictive regulatory environment in Illinois, which has significant negative credit implications," said Toby Shea, Moody’s vice president - senior credit officer, global project and infrastructure finance. Earlier this week, Morgan Stanley analysts said the “surprisingly negative outcomes” in the Illinois Commerce Commission’s decisions in the multi-year rate cases for ComEd and Ameren Illinois will result in lower earnings per share for the utilities’ parent companies, slower rate base growth and further regulatory overhang in 2024. The decisions could lower Exelon’s EPS for 2025 by about 5% and Ameren’s by 2.5%, the analysts estimated. In the decisions, the ICC set return on equity levels at 8.72% and 8.91% for Ameren Illinois and ComEd, respectively, and denied their multi-year capital expenditure plans, according to the analysts. The ROEs are among the lowest in the electric utility industry, they said. “The [Illinois] Commission is proving to be less predictable and much less supportive than expected,” the analysts said. The approved ROE for ComEd is among the lowest 5% of all authorized ROEs for U.S. electric utilities in the last three years, according to Moody’s. “This ROE level stands out as particularly low given the company exhibits high reliability and has reasonable rates compared to many peers,” Moody’s said. “Moreover, there has been some upward movement in allowed ROEs in other jurisdictions as the industry's cost of capital increases in a rising interest rate environment, making the Illinois ruling stand out as particularly unsupportive of credit quality.” The ICC authorized a $506 million revenue increase over four years for ComEd, down from its $1.5 billion request, and a $58 million hike for Ameren Illinois, which asked for $448 million over four years, according to the Morgan Stanley analysts. In Securities and Exchange Commission filings, ComEd and Ameren Illinois said they plan to appeal the decisions. Ameren Illinois said it intends to take “prudent steps” to align its 2024 operations with the decision, while ensuring safe and adequate service. Options include significant reductions to its capital expenditure and operations and maintenance expense plans, Ameren said. In its decisions, the ICC said the utilities’ grid plans failed to adequately incorporate customer affordability into their proposals or outline how 40% of plan benefits would go to low-income and environmental justice communities, as required by the Climate and Equitable Jobs Act. The commission gave the utilities three months to propose revised plans. The Citizens Utility Board, which advocates for residential ratepayers in Illinois, supported the ICC decision. “After a decade in which electric utilities exploited lax oversight, scandal, and rampant rate hikes to reap excessive profits, the ICC made it clear that ComEd and Ameren must be held accountable to their customers and provide more affordable electric service,” Sarah Moskowitz, CUB executive director, said in a Dec. 14 statement. “Today’s ICC ruling delivered an important message: Utilities need to prove that their grid plans will actually benefit consumers.” This story was originally published on Utility Dive. To receive daily news and insights, subscribe to our free daily Utility Dive newsletter.

HomeServices has $5.4B contingent liability for various broker commission cases. Odd that there was no mention of this.

Anyone have research on the utility rate/ROE issues that WEB mentions. I found one involving Minnesota and Xcel. https://sahanjournal.com/climate-environment/xcel-rate-case-minnesota/

It's not just wildfire suppression and general land use policy by BLM and State agencies like CalFire. Many homeowners in these wildfire risk areas haven't done the work on their own properties to reduce wildfire risk. Concrete shingles, siding, clearing trees around the homes. https://www.fire.ca.gov/dspace

https://www.federalreserve.gov/econres/feds/end-of-an-era-the-coming-long-run-slowdown-in-corporate-profit-growth-and-stock-returns.htm Expect lower profit margins going forward.

Well said @Parsad

Sinica podcast is a more balanced. Bill Bishop Sinocism podcast and Substack are good as well. Adam Tooze on China is great imo. It's amazing to me how much people are drawn to the sensationalistic analysis on YT. Must be the algo working.

The evidence for GLP1RAs and addiction is mixed from previous generations of compounds. And then safety with AUD patients is another thing. Many with AUD are already underweight or normal weight so could be dangerous for them to lose more. There's a good commentary in Nature Medicine on it but it might be pay walled. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41591-023-02634-8

Is there an index or tracker that shows the SP500 performance minus the big seven tech stocks? Doesn't have to be SP could also be MSCI.

RadMan - I've noticed this as well. PacificCorp now yielding 6.8% and has been joined by 30 year paper from other western utilities. SCE, Tucson Electric, Entergy, Evergy all yielding > 6%. Even 30 year paper of BHE the parent of PacificCorp and Nevada Power is trading at 6.48%. It's like some investment grade bond PMs have decided that wildfire risk is just too much.

A good write up on Japanese trading companies from Daye Deng at Valuepunks. Part 1 is free and Part 2 requires Substack subscription. https://valuepunks.substack.com/p/deep-dive-japanese-trading-companies

Latest from Martin Wolf on how China can avoid the Japan trap focusing on underconsumption. https://on.ft.com/3LCi1SM