changegonnacome

Over, under, kapow Its about being broadly right rather than precisely wrong Its a method used in SAT's - given a problem with limited information/time.........estimate the over, estimate the under......the answer (in multiple choice scenario should now reveal itself). In investing I would argue it's the bull case......the bear case.......with the expected outcome, on average, sitting in the middle of those two. Thoughts?

My understanding from the webinar and previous interviews on Realvision is that he believes that because the hurdle rate for investment has been lowered so much (low interest rates) & so much liquidity added to the system (QE) - that effectively every fixed asset or capacity/growth increasing investment that could or barely could be justified by any CEO/CFO has been done already. Increasing supply, driving down prices in the real economy & causing deflation. Indeed he also argues that a lot of investments that DONT make sense have been done too in the VC space with structurally unprofitable companies funded for years and years beyond what might be considered 'normal' growth capitalism or put another way companies are burning cheap capital and engaging in below cost selling at a scale & for a length of a time that reflects that the price of money has been fixed at an artificially low level. Finally we are all aware of the concept that there exists in this cycle a greater than normal level of 'Zombie' companies who's continued existence is only enabled by cheap and abundant credit. Ordinarily these companies would have ceased to exist in the creative destruction sense of the word removing their supply of services from the economy. They have not ceased to operate in this cycle - increasing supply & causing deflation. For further reading I point folks to this thread and you can see what Druckenmiller is getting at - selling & delivering pizzas for less than they cost sure seems deflationary to me, ditto Uber rides etc. etc.: https://www.cornerofberkshireandfairfax.ca/forum/general-discussion/this-is-your-brain-on-venture-capital/

Think this might be it -Warren was never one to kick the US/Global economy when its down..................and well if you've nothing nice to say, best to say nothing at all (or as little as possible in the AGM case)

Just sold Bank of New York Mellon shareholding to the tune of $30m

Thanks timing & pricing sitting where I was thinking also Q2 has to be melt down for this group - mid-August earnings release/call with corresponding Sept 2020 120 puts could be good bet

Neat idea and hardly(to my knowledge) a crowded institutional idea either. How do look at structuring this in a cost effective manner? I gave it a quick glance and put it on the "take a look at" reminder list for later. But briefly, couldn't you construct a cheaper expression with an outright short and some calls to hedge? Or is this a "big expected downside so go really far out of the money" situation? I just buy long out of the money puts. Very interesting - what dates you buying on the puts?

Axis Capital Holdings with strong cluster of inside buys