ValueArb

I bought a smaller position in a merger arb a couple months ago, NEWA, trying to pick up a 9% return from $3.35 to cash sale price of $3.65 in hopefully less than 6 months. But wierdest thing happened today. This weekend they announced shareholders had overwhelming approved merger, and it opened over $5. By the time I found out I was able to dump all my shares at $4.77. Announcer: It was not all his shares. Too late I figured out I had a bunch of shares in a account I had taken out of my trading group and was only able to get $3.87 for the rest. Still no news to explain this. It can't be a trading error, the trades went on for hours. This is the weirdest market ever.

This is a very good point. But if corporate rate goes up to 28% AND inflation/interest rates increase, that's a double whammy to the market that could start a slow avalanche. The way I look at it is given near zero interest rates and record low tax rates the Schiller PE should something like 50% higher than normal, but instead it's more than double. I believe that happens because as prices gradually rise to their correct valuations for lower interest and tax rates, they tend to overshoot. Everyone is making money in the market so money piles in and people take lower yields because thats whats winning (and FOMO from those late to the game), and thats how we get to a Schiller 38. But when those valuation factors reverse and people start dealing with losing months and a losing year, it works in reverse. Even if interest rates only go up to 3% and taxes to 28% and a "fair" average PE is still around 20 or so once the market hits that level it might keep going down for a while as no one wants anything to do with stocks after a 50% loss.

Focused Compounding by Andrew Kuhn and Geoff Cannon is easily the best value investing podcast I've found yet (even better than The Acquirers Multiple with Tobias Carlisle). I listen to it exclusively while I work out. I'm trying to work my way all the way through their entire episode history. https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/focused-compounding/id1352422076 They are also members here, so "welcome! welcome! welcome!" if they read this..

I’m really enjoying QuickFS.net, it makes it super quick to review the companies recent by and long term before investing time in reading its filings.

Thanks, I'll read that article and hopefully it gives me a better framework for valuing BTC.

What's BTC's intrinsic value? Not being snarky, obviously it's not backed by the PV of a DCF, but it's utility as a medium of exchange does give it value. Question is how do we estimate a reasonable value (or range of values) for it's utility? $100,000 would be close to $2 Trillion, does the world need $2 Trillion of BTC for remittances, protection of net worth in oppressive countries like Venezuela, etc? I owned a small amount of BTC when it was $400 and remember making the argument that it had utility for those uses so it wasn't going away. But I don't cry over selling it at $450 because I've never been able to figure out what even a broad range of value was for it. Obviously its a lot more than the $8 Billion it was then, but even if I had come up with what seemed at the time to be a ridiculous valuation like $100B, I'm out before $5,000.

Thanks IceCreamMan! those are good tips, especially the Text Box. I know enough Excel that I don't know why I didn't think of it myself but am grateful you did.

Thanks for the draftable tip! I really want to use Google sheets for all the reasons you've given, but Excel is just so far superior in all the little things like data formatting and entry that I gave up on Google and paid for Excel. Right now I have three excel files, "2021 A-L", "2021 M-Z", & "Dashboard Summary". First two files every idea gets it's own tab by ticker symbol, Dashboard Summary keeps a list of my currently active positions with estimated returns at current price. I'd kill for a way to store individual spreadsheets along with free form notes, right now I keep one column super wide and paste in key notes and quotes from thier SEC filings in their tab, which leads to some awkward formatting when I also paste along side the notes financials and create FCF and tangible equity estimates.

There was a mask shortage a year ago. Fauci and others said the masks should be reserved for medical personnel, because if lots of doctors and nurses got sick, it would make treating people that much harder. It’s seriously not that hard to understand what happened if you aren’t trying to play the gotcha game. "Fauci and others said the masks should be reserved for medical personnel, because if lots of doctors and nurses got sick, it would make treating people that much harder." - That is only part of what Fauci and others said. The surgeon general said - "STOP BUYING MASKS" .. "They are NOT effective in preventing the general public from catching #Coronavirus ..." Fauci said in March 2020 - "There’s no reason to be walking around with a mask. When you’re in the middle of an outbreak, wearing a mask might make people feel a little bit better and it might even block a droplet, but it’s not providing the perfect protection that people think that it is. And, often, there are unintended consequences — people keep fiddling with the mask and they keep touching their face." Fauci and the surgeon general's comments went well beyond simply stating that masks should be reserved for medical personnel. They definitely changed their public statements on masks. Maybe they changed their minds. Maybe something else. Regardless, it is not a gotcha to point out that their public statements on masks changed. That's what happened. https://www.reuters.com/article/uk-factcheck-fauci-outdated-video-masks/fact-checkoutdated-video-of-fauci-saying-theres-no-reason-to-be-walking-around-with-a-mask-idUSKBN26T2TR In the clip, Dr Fauci says “There’s no reason to be walking around with a mask. When you’re in the middle of an outbreak, wearing a mask might make people feel a little bit better and it might even block a droplet, but it’s not providing the perfect protection that people think that it is. And, often, there are unintended consequences — people keep fiddling with the mask and they keep touching their face.” "Fauci made this comment on an interview with 60 Minutes on March 8, during the early stages of the novel coronavirus outbreak in the United States ... The interview predates the CDC’s updated guidance on the use of face coverings. " ... "As Fauci told the Washington Post here , at the beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic, masks were not recommended for the general public, as authorities were trying to prevent a mask shortage for health workers and the extent of asymptomatic spread was unknown."

And as if that was signaling a top, BTC crashes.

There was a mask shortage a year ago. Fauci and others said the masks should be reserved for medical personnel, because if lots of doctors and nurses got sick, it would make treating people that much harder. It’s seriously not that hard to understand what happened if you aren’t trying to play the gotcha game.

Why get inoculated for polio or hepatitis? Because the cost/benefit ratio is extraordinary.

Got my first shot, but man the process was awful. My county had basically Walgreens or Fry's locations, Walgreens never had appointments. Trying to get an appointment through Fry's was worse. You'd go through a questionnaire, then it would let you pick an appointment for your first shot, but before you could confirm it, would require you to pick an appointment for your second shot. Problem was, there were no appointments for second shots. So I'd get stuck without the abilty to confirm my reservation. This went on for days before I hit on the idea of saying I already had my first shot, and voila, the system let me confirm an appointment for my "second" shot. I arrived 5 minutes early only to find a long line for vaccinations the store.This normally wouldn't be a problem except I'm recovering from ankle surgery and neglected to bring an ankle brace given I thought I had an appointment. So after 50 minutes of painful standing, I was able to get my shot. So now I need to schedule my second but site doesn't let you schedule more than 5 days in advance, and Arizona just opened up vaccinations to everyone ages 16+ starting tomorrow, so worried that I won't be able to get an appointment when I need one.

IBKR's service is getting worse over the years. The trading restriction for OTC stocks because they think you are an affiliated shareholder is getting ridiculous: first they flag you as an affiliated and restricted the trading; then only the compliance personnel can remove the restriction (not the service guy you get on the phone); and when you submit a ticket you are ignored; at last when the restriction is removed, it's only for two weeks and you need to repeat the steps again! LOL, this just happened to me on a position at the exact time I realized I had mistakenly overvalued it. So I was desperate to sell while the market was hot and there were lots of buy orders so I did not get stuck with the position but it took so long to get trading approval that I'm not liquidating at a loss. But I've found that if you have a master account and call their special line you get far better service.

Ticker Symbol is RYSAS. Down 10% today. If the situation in Turkey continues and Pabrai doesn´t sell, I will start a position. My strategy is to clone Pabrai here because there are no annual reports or financial statements in English, is all in Turkish Language Is this the one that shipped painted rocks instead of copper to Asia last month?

Thanks, thought I tried that but evidently I did not. FVIV should return FVIV U as a option but doesn't, and apparently I didn't think to type it in directly.

Hmm, my broker is telling me that only FRWAU exists?

You made a put position 5% of your capital? My goal is 5-10% of the portfolio in puts until this bubble pops. I figure I can make up the losses in special situation investments in rest of portfolio. Worse case is I go full Michael Burry for a few years, but I don't have investors to placate.

Yep, thanks for the list. Trying to build up a diversified portfolio of SPACs, so I've come full circle.

These WSB screeds just give me a headache. All allegations, no facts, just (deliberate?) misinterpretations of facts. Keep pumping those turds WSB traders.

We both must be happy today. "LATHAM, N.Y., March 16, 2021 -- Plug Power Inc. (NASDAQ: PLUG), a leading provider of turnkey hydrogen solutions building the global green hydrogen economy, announced today that it will restate its previously issued financial statements for fiscal years 2018 and 2019 and its quarterly filings for 2019 and 2020, which will be disclosed in the Form 10-K for the year ended December 31, 2020 (the “Prior Period Financial Statements”)."

I'd feel pretty stupid if I was the guy in that article you all were making fun of. But I'm not. I swear.

The blockchain has one use it’s apparently perfect for, scams. This will be a constant drag on the market. https://www.businessinsider.com/man-lost-560000-worth-of-bitcoin-elon-musk-scam-bbc-2021-3 A man in Germany says he lost bitcoins worth $560,000 by falling for a scammer posing as Elon Musk, the BBC reported. The man from Cologne — whom the BBC gave a pseudonym — described giving away his fortune in the mistaken belief that Musk would double his money. The BBC said his loss was the largest single amount recorded by a Dutch group that tracks so-called giveaway scams.

Former Crypto Firm Official Was a U.K. Fugitive, Bankruptcy Examiner Says A court-appointed examiner says Cred failed to perform due diligence on its investments and to uncover the worrisome past of a former executive Cryptocurrency investment platform Cred Inc. unwittingly put a convicted financial criminal identified by the U.K. as a fugitive in charge of raising and deploying the firm’s capital before its collapse into bankruptcy, a court-appointed examiner said. An examiner’s report filed Monday in the U.S. Bankruptcy Court in Wilmington, Del., said that Cred failed to keep reliable records, properly track customer funds, perform due diligence on the firm’s investments or uncover the “extremely worrisome past” of former Chief Capital Officer James Alexander, who was fired last June. ... Cred in bankruptcy filings has blamed Mr. Alexander for some of its financial troubles, accusing him of making off with bitcoin valued at millions of dollars. ... Mr. Alexander filed for personal bankruptcy last month amid intensifying scrutiny during Cred’s bankruptcy proceedings of his dealings with the company. He said in court filings in his own bankruptcy case that he and Cred are undergoing a “business divorce” and that he transferred the bitcoin to an account he controlled to maintain the operations of Cred Capital. The examiner’s report said that Mr. Alexander was convicted in December 2007 in the U.K. “for crimes related to illegal money transfers, for which he was sentenced to three years and four months in prison” in England. “At the time of his incarceration, there was a prison break at this facility,” the report said. “Mr. Alexander has been identified by the U.K. government as a fugitive.” ... Founded by former PayPal Holdings Inc. managers and based in San Mateo, Calif., Cred operated as a financial-services platform to give cryptocurrency holders ways to invest those assets with Cred or borrow against them. After Cred’s bankruptcy filing last November, the examiner was appointed to look into how and why the firm went under after taking in roughly $135 million in customer funds. The examiner said currency was allowed to move to overseas entities without the legal setup to retrieve it when needed. Customer assets were commingled without a method for determining which assets were deposited by whom, while certain accounting information kept in spreadsheets wasn’t regularly updated, according to the report. The examiner reported the state of Cred’s records to be “disorganized and incomplete.” Cred’s problems largely stemmed from failures in corporate leadership, but Mr. Alexander’s participation in poor decision-making is a recurring theme, the report said. ... A liquidation analysis of the business estimated that unsecured creditors would recover about 30 cents on the dollar of what they are owed, according to a Cred bankruptcy filing. The examiner said Mr. Alexander, despite a court order to do so, hadn’t returned all the funds he transferred out of Cred. Cred and its unsecured creditors’ committee have alleged during the bankruptcy proceedings that Mr. Alexander misappropriated from the firm at least 225 bitcoin, now valued at roughly $12 million, while he worked there. Mr. Alexander has returned roughly 50 bitcoin and $2.8 million in proceeds from liquidated bitcoin, according to the examiner’s report. Write to Becky Yerak at becky.yerak@wsj.com

Don’t get me going on Virgin Galactic. Imagine naming your space company “Galactic” when its technology could never even achieve orbit. Oops, I got going...