Xerxes

People can say what they want, but there is nothing Western powers can do if Russia goes nuclear tactically. But at this point I would think the chances are low, as they have not exhausted the landmass for its resources. And Motherland is not at risk. Nuclear wasn’t that taboo, when Mcarthur was planning to drop 50 of them on Manchuria. Even the mighty President Bush (‘41) considered it using against Iraq in 1991 as a threat. A threat is not a threat if you are not willing to pull the trigger. https://www.orlandosentinel.com/news/os-xpm-1991-03-10-9103090421-story.html

If a democratically elected leader (LBJ) of a major Western power couldn’t come down his high horses and find a way to end Vietnam, I don’t understand why people in this thread think that the gangsters running Kremlin are not going to double down. There can be no strategic pause for Kiev. As they can re-arm at a much faster than Moscow can, thanks to the Western inflow of war material. Russian Motherland and the regime are not at any existential risk thanks to the nukes and the internal controls and incentives built over decades and the Rubicon has already been crossed on Western sanctions. So no incremental gain there for Kremlin to play nice. Zelensky is no fool. He already know all this. That said countries like Turkey can play a role here as mediator over time. But a mediator cannot see things in a “cartoonish” ways of bad guys vs good guys. here is a good interview from yesterday with president of Turkey. I must admit I found his answer on Crimea very confusing. Not sure what design Turkey has on the ancestral land of the Tartar khans.

Viking, During the 2018 AGM, Prem specifically said that FIH and FAH were built as independent vehicle and FFH wants them as far as away from us (FFH). I suscinctly recall, he contrasting them with the "explorer ships", so that if they go down they dont take mothership. I dont know how much 'salesmanship' was in those statement, and how that perceived risk and/or regulatory landscape changed, but this is very different than Brookfield Properties where it was created purely to have a currency, just like Brookfield is doing it again now with the "Manager" of BAM. For FFH, the creation of FIH was primiarlly for risk-management tool (and as currency tool as secondary objective) whereas for Brookfield it was primiarlly to have it as a M&A currency (which in turn made total sense to buy it back since that currency undervalues the NAV and was no longer doing its prime objective). Naturally the question would be, if with the deep discount that FIH is trading at, is that 'perceived' risk less so for FFH. And I think that is a fair question.

i wouldnt call that chickening out, they would be doing their jobs by pivoting away if the real economy falls over. Right now, they got to raise rate as much as they can since the economy can handle it, but the caveat is that what you see in financial market has a lag to the real economy. The big question is how high too high and that no one knows.

^^ Thanks "Terror" is based also on the real story as well but has survival-monster-horror tilt to it. It looks very chilling. It is i think really seen from the eyes of the men on the expedition, slowly losing it. AMC's 'The Terror' Is More Than a Chilling Monster Show - The Atlantic The novel from which it is based was written in 2007. Dan Simmons - Wikipedia The Terror: A Novel : Simmons, Dan: Amazon.ca: Books

House of Dragon last night :: WowooooW RIngs of Power on Friday: very enjoyable; makes you want to watch the old LOTR on a different note, Shetland Season 7 is out. But dont be fooled (like i was). I immediatly signed-up for BritBox on Prime for it, only to realize that it is dropping 1 episode per week. Instead watching Terror on prime, about the famous Franklin's expedition to the Arctic Franklin's lost expedition - Wikipedia

This Peter Zeihan (i dont know who he is) doesnt understand the Iranian-Russian relationship. They are not allies. They sometimes have shared interest but more often than not, they do not. And in fact Russia has been helping Israel limiting Iranian influence in Syria. Russia is not in Syria for Bashar, it is there for the port of Tartus, and by extension the government that provides that legitimacy. So Bashar is not going anywhere as he is the only one that provides that legitimacy. Peter Zeihan calls this a Russian Alliance. Capital "R" and Capital "A". That is the a typical Western one-dimensional thinking mumbo-jumbo. Russia does not have alliances. It has satraps (Belasarus) and close geopolitcal regional part-time associates when interest aligns (Iran, Turkey etc), "oil world order" part-time associates (Saudi Arabia/OPEC+) and "geopolitical world order/big league" part-time associate (PRC) etc.

Spek, While it is truth that Azerbaijan was heavilly backed by Turkey, Armenia however was not really backed by Russia in its most recent war last year. Russia did not do much to help Armenia, as Putin and the Armenian president didnt see eye to eye. But yest, the Turkish drone played an outsize role in the 2020-2021 war last year. A captive ally: Why Russia isn’t rushing to Armenia’s aid – European Council on Foreign Relations (ecfr.eu)

Mark Mobius is making the rounds on CNBC and Bloomberg, talking about Fed raising interest rate by 2% in one shot !! And the nominal rate reaching 9%

Looks like a lot of concentrated positions in “Alternatives” https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/09/13/royal-family-wealth-charles-inheritance/

Thanks for sharing @bizaro86 What are the odds indeed !! there a lot of them in Saskatchewan as well A remote Canadian province luxuriates in the global supply crunch | The Economist "Nor, it seems, can the world. The 15m tonnes of wheat and 20m tonnes of other crops that the province produces in a typical year will be vital to markets roiled by the war between Russia and Ukraine. So, too, will almost everything else Saskatchewan produces. When Ukrainian immigrants first streamed into Canada at the end of the 19th century, the government of the day had a role in mind for them: to settle the vast prairies between the forests of Ontario and the Rocky Mountains. The minister of immigration knew what he wanted: “a stalwart peasant in a sheepskin coat, born on the soil, whose forefathers have been farmers for ten generations, with a stout wife and a half-dozen children.” Those with uncalloused hands could look elsewhere. It was a good match. The landscape reminded many of Bukovina and Galicia in western Ukraine. Its aspen forests needed clearing but the soil was lush and the land dirt cheap. By the first world war tens of thousands had come, settling around onion-domed churches, often living next to the same neighbours they had back home. That migration established what would become the world’s second-largest Ukrainian diaspora, behind Russia’s. In Saskatchewan, where a tenth of the population has Ukrainian roots, events in eastern Europe are again shifting local fortunes. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has not quite prompted a stampede towards the prairie—the refugees arriving in Canada mostly prefer the comfort and energy of cities in the east. But it has caused the price of many of the commodities which drive Saskatchewan’s see-sawing economy to rocket like never before. ................. Like most of Canada, the province also suffers from a shortage of workers. No other province has seen such slow population growth. Over the past century the ranks of Saskatchewanites have increased by half to 1.2m while the country’s population has quadrupled. The provincial government has been keen to take as many Ukrainian refugees as it can get. But despite ample jobs, cheap housing and a diaspora, Ukrainians have not come flocking. "

General "Mud" donned an Ukrainian uniform back in March-April when the so-called multi-mile Russian military convoy was trying to pull its weight (unsuccesfully) toward Kiev kicking and screaming. Will General "Mud" don a Russian uniform come Fall as Ukraine overextende its line of communication ?? I think like everything else, you cannot just take a snapshot and projected to the future. If someone were to tell me about the subtlies of "declaring war" and "special operation" for Russia pre-Feb 2022, I would have laughed. After all, that subtly was less aparent with U.S. conducting a full scale war in Vientnam without declaring war (yes, yes, U.S. was already drafting). Point is, there was something there that I didnt know and seem to mean something to Russia. How many more other variable & mental tripwire there is for the Kremlin that we do not know about. The one think we can be clear is that the Kremlin (under current regime) cannot have any sort cease-fire that would allow Kiev to replenish itself. (i.e. Kremlin gets a vote too) I am about 1/3 through my book on Peter the Great. It is an incredible read. Will post it in the book section once i am half way through. The author did the world a service by writing such a biography. So well written. I am at the early stage of the 20-year Great Northern War, where a losely colliation of Peter's Russia, Poland and Denmark embark on war against one of the most powerful imperial force of its day : Charles XII's Sweden. At the battle of Narva (a fortress near the today's border with Estonia-Russia), Charles XII sweep a Russian force many times it size, after knocking the Danes and the Poles out of the war. That was just the start of this long 20 year war (and no one knew it at the time) that would end with Russia ascendence and Sweden losing its empire, if we can use that word. What this has to do with today. Nothing other that, just that whatever you think you know, prepared to be surprised.

Watched Episode 3 of the Rings. This show is really immersive, even the bloody Hartfoot are fun to watch. You can see the similarities between Gondor and Numenor. Very different style than the cartoonish Peter Jackson’s Hobbit Trilogy. The Southland story line with Orc tunnels is pretty interesting (no spoilers) https://www.cnbc.com/amp/2022/09/09/amazon-the-rings-of-power-firsttime-showrunners.html

@Spekulatius Forgive my ignorance, but what is LOS ? is that your aberivation of Rings of Power or something else ..

I would word it rather this way. Oil became a global market with introduction of supertankers that connected various markets in the 1960s. For natural gas, the global market is still in the making with proliferation of LNG tankers and accelerated by the war that distrupted status-quo. As late as a 10 years ago, the natural gas contract prices to Europe were still based on crude prices and wholly independent of prices in Japan or the U.S. And rightly so, since the product was and still constraint by the geographical reach of the NG pipeline network.

Thank you, The "Making of Hong Kong" looks interesting. Will probably buy that one. I finally finished reading "The Last Kings of Shanghai"; great fast read and contrary to my first post, the story does not end in 1949. Of the two families, the Sassoons were the stronger than Kadoorie family up until 1949. Their mistake was putting all their eggs in Shanghai. After the fall of Shanghai, Victor Sassoon, the patriach, folded his card and left Asia entirely somewhat disappointed and disillusioned. In contrast, the less powerful Kadoorie had some holdings in Hong Kong so had a diversified set of assets. After losing Shanghai, they stayed in Hong Kong and doubled down in a time where there were threats of Red invasion of the island, their patience and their commitment to stay in the game, was rewarded by being there in the region when China re-opened. At the time of writing of the book (few years ago), they were worth north of +$10 billion dollars and committed to Hong Kong and PRC. The book quotes President Xi telling Michael Kadoories, the current patriach, that "they were always friend of China", and reportedly he is the only western Hong Kong billionaire in business meetings (involving HK) with Beijing. Their two main holdings are China Light and Power Company & The Hongkong and Shanghai Hotels CLP is worth HK$165 billion market cap while HongKong & Shangai Hotel is worth KH$11 billion market cap. Next time you are staying at a Peninsula Hotel, know that there is an interesting history behind it going back to the Baghdad and an exiled jewish family. Contrast that legacy to the Sassoons who are now history. --------------------------------------------------- There is another book that is coming out soon. The focus is really just on the Sassoons at the height of their power in the 19th centuary. That timeline is also covered by the first book that I mentioned but this one goes into great depth. The Sassoons: The Great Global Merchants and the Making of an Empire: Sassoon, Joseph: 9780593679029: Books - Amazon.ca

There was something that I heard from Walt Disney a while back, that as they move more on the periphery of the Marvel Universe with the characters that are less well known, the die-hard fan base backlash is also correpondingly less. The Second Age, with its rings, Isildur etc., has enough 'backbone' to make it highly relevant to the overall LOTR franchise, but probably doesnt have enough meat for the die-hard fandom to claw at it. Amazon will be ok, as long as they do not make the mistake that Apple made with Foundation series. (i.e. really bad writing coupled while overstreching a galactic arc, where the story gets diluted).

Elon Musk complainng about Rings of Power is no different than Bezos throwing darts at Musk for his bid for Twitter. Just two billionaires with nothing else to do. I think Rings of Power need to be judged indepedently than Thrones. The latter was always more intriguing to an adult audiance, and given that House of Dragons and Rings of Powers are being relesaed in parallel, people would implicitly making comparisions. The fact is both are being released in a time, when the consumer is overwhelm with content. Could you imagine how Lord of the Rings would do if it was released TODAY in the threaters amidst all these content instead of early 2000. It was then the only fantasy-with-sword franchise out there and had the whole market to itself. Game of Throne came later in 2008 and established itself as the adult oriented (more geopolitically relevant) genre and took that market for itself. I gave bad grades to Apple' Foundation series, but after watching a good few episodes to confirm my initial suspisions. I actually think Rings of Power looks pretty intriguing. (and btw i dont care about effects or CGI; all i care about is the story and character development)

Natural gas is a smaller component of Russia's federal budget and exports when compared to sales of crude oil. The natural gas exports to Europe were always a tool of leverage ... and getting paid for having a leverage over Europe. When compared to overall export in 2021, less than 14% of it was from natural gas + liquidifed natrual gas vs. +36% for crude and refined oil. I could not find a good source on Russia' federal budget itself, to put those export dollar sales against it, but putting them against export sales provides a good proxy. The Economist also had a good article few weeks ago about Rosneft and its importance given the outsize role crude/refined oil sales play vs. natural gas for Kremlin. From Jan 2022 (pre-invasion) Factbox: Russia's oil and gas revenue windfall | Reuters - According to the central bank, Russia's total exports reached $489.8 billion in 2021. Of that, crude oil accounted for $110.2 billion, oil products for $68.7 billion, pipeline natural gas for $54.2 billion and liquefied natural gas $7.6 billion.

Watched the second episodes. It is getting good & i am getting excited in terms of where they are going with this. I never read the related source material (never cared too much about the Second Age; preferred the Third Age), so have no clue on the details.

To the Allies, Americans were like the rich uncle. So they let the uncle to pay the tab. A recurring event post-1945, that was perhaps offset by the U.S. dollar hegemony over others. I think either the Fourth or the Fifth Republics (i.e pre- or post-centralization of presidental power in France), DeGaulle and his minister of coins had major qualms about that hegemony that allowed the American to just print U.S. dlollar and buy fine french wine and other luxuary, while the French laoured. He did not hesitate to let the American know.

Only if JRR Tolkien knew that some day +$400 million would be spend on some obscure appendix attached to Lord of the Rings. It is not easy what Prime is doing. With Game of Thrones, HBO has access to the source talent, and the show has more of an adult theme to it. And that is what the market wants. I think Peter Jackson Hobbit’ 3rd movie left a bad taste and turned the whole thing into a joke. The third movie had no substance, beyond being an amalgamation of jokes. unclear how this will unfold in this day and age. The first episode was ok.

@maxthetrade i enjoyed also the “D-Day” beaches but like more than 15 years ago. There this one place I ll never forget, it was cliff overlooking some of the “beaches” on one side and “Utah beach” I think on the other side. It was packed with German battery installations. when I went to see it there were no howitzers, but their placement were there and massive cavities caused by the Allied bombardment. The massive bunkers are still there. For some reason, I remember the name Pointe du Chut but looks like it is called Pointe du Hoc. Even Call of Duty back in the day had a level where you had to climb those cliffs and disable those howitzers, only to discover that the Germans moved them more inland. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pointe_du_Hoc

I found this to be an illuminating and hilarious read

@Viking i think I have done my fifth day trip down to the Adirondacks (for hiking) this summer since border re-opened. will probably go to Vietnam, Cambodia and Thailand for Christmas but not for hiking or biking. Just normal tourist stuff.