Xerxes

I started watching Treason "so called Limited show" on Netflix (not exactly like Limited edition scotch, is it ?) It is a drag to watch this so-called thriller like most other stuff on Netflix. There is no lack of great actors, budgets. It is all there. What really sucks is the script and the directorship. If you show me bunch of shows/movies and not tell me the production/distribution platform (HBO vs Netflix), 9 out of 10 i can tell you which ones are from Netflix. With Netflix, it is almost about creating shows for the sake of creating shows. A show or a movie, needs to start with a good script and good story, and then into production (bottom up). Not other way around, with Netflix algorithm computing people's interest on a Thriller and then issuing purchase orders to the production companies to conjure up one out of thin air.

Just for clarity as I think there is a typo here.

In 2019, revenue dropped by 21%, do you remember why ?

All I care is that multiple to BV remain very modest for the long term so that I don’t have to make any hard decision.

I am overexcited to read what Buffett has to say in his letter in a few weeks. A lot of stuff happened in 2022, but we never got the Buffett side of the story.

Depends also who are we talking about, (1) long-term current/would-be-holders, or (2) those trade-in with a 12-24 month window. Most discussions in the past 12 months on FFH has always been on the merit of the company itself and not the investor side of it. Who are the investors ? For me, as I fall in category (1), the movement from 0.90 to 1.1 to BV is just noise, given that i am not selling when it goes to 1.1 (it has to go really parabolic high against BV for me to sell). Going from 0.65 to 1.0, was the real juice both for category (1) and (2), but going forward as a long term holding, I am holding it not because of it going from 0.9 to 1.1 but rather the NAV (or BV) compounding because of whatever better secular trend. For those in category (2), easy money has been made. They may wish to trade 0.90 to 1.1 to BV is just noise, if that is their forte.

Even more cooler than that, is the Swiss National Bank, which conjurs Swiss Francs out of thin air, Et Voila!, sells it in the FX market for U.S. dollar, and use the proceeds to buy the big U.S. technology names in the past decade.

I don’t have any unique 2023 ideas or any other year for that matter. Just letting the portfolio run and add to the same name as they dip and money becomes available. I got dinged on long-duration assets in 2022, however going forward the “expected return” ought to be better. Added more to Onex yesterday. I do plan to start a new position in BX sometimes in Q1. I lost Lockheed. Had a close eye on it in late 2021 but it went away. I like FFH and understand the cheaper then before argument. But that thing has rallied quite a bit. Hasn’t it.

Just verified on line https://www.forbes.com/sites/mattdurot/2022/10/31/saudi-prince-alwaleed-becomes-twitters-second-largest-shareholder/?sh=26e9bc69523a

For clarity, unless I am mistaken (from memory), Twitter investment that got rolled into that “private equity” was not from PIF but a personal investment of Saudi billionaire.

I ll do the honors for this year. https://s1.q4cdn.com/579586326/files/doc_news/2023/PRFFH-Annual-Dividend-Press-Release-January-4-2023.pdf "Fairfax Financial Holdings Limited (TSX: FFH and FFH.U) (“Fairfax”) announces that it has declared a dividend of US$10.00 per share on its outstanding multiple voting and subordinate voting shares, payable on January 26, 2023 to shareholders of record on January 19, 2023. Applicable Canadian withholding tax will be applied to dividends payable to non-residents of Canada."

Very well said. Likewise, I count/focus on quantity of shares in down years and their dollar value in up years.

Did you watch this episode >

Finally back home and can post my 2022 results. I am happy to report that my 2022 totally beat Cathie Wood star investor in the 2022 year. Assuming i have done the math right, it comes to -11% down for the combined TFSA/RRSP/LIRA. It is all in Canadian dollar terms. Account split: RRSP/LIRA where I hold the crown jewels (including the cut-in-half Alphabet and Amazon) are down a combined -3.2% for the year. TFSA had a monster -31.9% drop. Within that account I had IAC, Grab, Spotify, Angi, Onex Etc. I should add that in the prior year (2020-21), I had bought Microstrategy at about $377 and sold over $1,000. And had also multibagger realized gains on Blackberry and Lightspeed. So in 2022, I gave back what I unlawfully sold to the greater fools than myself, and became a fool myelf. Naturally, the RRSP/LIRA is more than 3.5 times larger than TFSA, so stupidity is hedged. Biggest +ve Contributor in TFSA/RRSP/LIRA (not counting dividends): Exxon 80% up Fairfax Financial 28% up Bombardier 27% Starbucks 27% up (from May when I started position) RTX 17% up Stelco 13% up Couche-Tard 11% up Berkshire 3% up If I am not mistaken in my math the above constitued in total dollar terms ~46% of the combined portfolio, which means there was the balance ~54% in dollar terms that went down in 2022. Either a little bit or a lot.

“The Initial of a Friend” ~ Not sure if this goes to the “joke” section or the GE thread.

That is actually very well said. That said, for clarity, my "inevitable" comment was not about the "outcome". The outcome of the conflict will be a titanic test of wills between the two giant forces. And a great leader can more than compensate other shortcomings. Agreed with that. My "inevitable" comment was specifically about the "collision" and the "onset of the conflict" that compounds those historical pressure points building over the long term. That future and the outcome of the war is yet to be written ... and there is an empy blank page of all the things that could happen. Anything is possible..... ---------------------- Unrelated to this thought, on Churchill, i have a comment/observation that I ll write later today, as i have to leave the house.

War started in 2014. There we agree. The outcome of the conflict is not inevitable. There we agree as that future is yet to be written. BUT the collision (step 2 and step 3) was inevitable. It happens to be centred around Putin and we in the west we all like a central figure for our narrative. but it would have happened eventually in other forms. More or less violent. Putin or no Putin. think of it this way, if it took +2 decades past 1945 for wine-drinking, peace-loving Western European nations and governments to finally stop their wars of imperial preservation and bow out and become “museum” nations (step 4), do you really think that the Kremlin, the heir to the Soviet Union, a superpower, and the Romanov before it, and the Golden Horde of Subotai and Batu Khan before them, would just chose to become a “museum” nation attached with gas stations !! ———- World War 2 WAS inevitable. As that part 2 had to happen to finish off what it essentially was a German challenge to the Anglo/French supremacy. What was NOT inevitable was the way it happened, with the the rise of Hitler and all that baggage. Hitler happened because of the fertile ground created for Nazisim post-Versailles. But Hitler or not there would have been that final contest. We just got the very worse version of it, as a reaction to seeds planted in Versailles. Hitler just rode the tailwind of what was inevitable and added his own demonic touch. We may have some control over the severity of conflicts, but we do not have any say on the massive general current of history. what needed to happen and would have happened.

very good article. It is one of those things where closer you are to the border, the more prescient you ll look to those afar, after the fact. Putin is the person we most refer to because his position. My view is that this was always bound to happen. Putin or not. But our Western need to associate narrative to a central figure is holding us. You can build a narrative around the persona of Saddam or Osama, but in Russia’ case it is very different. (Same with Iran) The transition from Empire to nationhood can take many forms. And it usually comes in three or four steps in my view: 1- disintegration as the centrifugal force holding the empire gives away. 2- the fight to establish/cut a “nation” out of the wreckage of the empire by the former masters. 3- DNA and the Imperial dream still there. 4-became a “museum” nation Let’s take some examples. The Ottoman and Russian empires. In Turkish case, the Young Turks, the Attaturk, worked hard, broke many eggs, fought and died but they secured the border of the modern nation of Turkey, even as the empire collapsed around them. In Russia’s case, there was no strong central figure to fight for Russian interest post-1989. And the post-1991 border became to be defined by USSR internal borders. So step (2) never got done in case of Russia. In short the disintegration was sudden, so the “inevitable” got frozen. step (3) is largely where Turkey is now. Decades later (a century really) it wants to become the paramount influencer in the Muslim world leveraging its imperial past. In Iran case, the disintegration of empire was very gradual. In fact over two centuries. The peak was the reign of Nader Shah, whose armies conquer vast swaths of territory lost to the Afghan, Ottomans and also went as far as Delhi. Iran’ Peacock Throne in fact was taken from India. Though the original is largely lost I believe. Hundred year after Nader Shah, as the British pushed their interest from the south and India, as the Russia pushed from North and Turks from the west. The empire just shrunk overtime and became the small nation that we know today. like how the passage of water curves into a stone over time. so in Iran case, I think they also in step (3) let take another example since I am in Portugal. The Portuguese dictator Salazar worked hard to preserve its vast colonial empire post 1945. The Portuguese fought wars of imperial preservation and still held Goa and other lands in India by the 1960s. Today Portugal is in stage (4). A “museum” nation. where UK is as well. European nations did not really have to do stage (2) as their colonies were geographically in distinct location. same with the French as well. Though they dragged US into Vietnam but it was only decades after 1945 that the French bowed out of their imperial past.

The current rulers in Tehran would never admit this, but Qassem Suleimani’ Quds Revolutionary Guards was walking in the footsteps of Khusrow, Shahpur, and other Shahanshahs of the past. The Sassanid fought the Romans in the plains of Syria. Their descendants, the Safavids fought the Ottomans in Syria and Mesopotamia. The enemy in the West always changed after few hundreds years, but Persian were always there.

the Ukrainian top general said it best: their action on Bakhmut is about “fixing” the Ukrainian position (capturing or not capturing not really that tangible to the war effort) if Ukrainian are forces fixed at Bakhmut then they cannot re-deploy those forces on their own terms, where they should be going. —— you want to see grizzly, check out the story of the Wagnor convict who deserted and was captured by Ukraine. He was interview by NY Times. His interview was “accidentally” published. (Whatever that means) He was returned by Ukraine to Russia in a prisoner swap. The Russian mercenary outfit had his head taped to the a piece of concrete and made him confess on video, as they swung a sledgehammer into his skull. I didn’t see that part.

Completely agree. Your best and brightest (who can afford to have a future aboard) are leaving. Samething with brains leaving Iran for the past 30 years. Drip by drip. I am always amazed how Iran can still punch above its weight, (not economically but geopolitical influence) with all the sanctions, all restrictions all the helps that it peers are getting.

Barron’s Top Ten idea for 2023 had Toll Brother. In their podcast, they mentioned that the patriarch passed away (or is of a very old age), and it could be a good fit for BRK as a full purchase.

The Russian border were kept precisely open such that troublemakers, anti war folks, anti special military operations folks all leave. I think Kiev is trying its hand at propaganda, this time not so well. I think Russia does not need more manpower (beyond the annual round up) but what it needs are munitions, artillery shells etc.

Agreed @Viking well earned and well done !!