Castanza

How does that look rough? He looks like he has a fever and a headache....lucid enough to make jokes.

I've often wondered if China would have the balls to forcefully take over operations of the Tesla factory in China and blatantly steal their IP. I could see it happening if tensions got high enough between the western world and China.

Yes, avoiding/mitigating the virus causes lots of issues. There is the other side of the coin which is... the virus itself. What are the health (and death) issues for those who get the virus, their family member, their social network, work network and the community where they live? And those who have been around someone shortly before they tested positive? What happens to a family when a member is diagnosed positive. Lots of mental anguish for everyone. First waiting (feeling sick but not knowing if it is the virus). Then getting tested. Then waiting for results (Sometimes a week). Then contacting everyone they have been in close contact with that you may have spread the virus to them and their ‘bubble’. But you do not know. Once results come in, if it is positive, then return phone calls to lots of people. Lots of explanations. Other people then need to decide if they need to quarantine (or physically distance). Testing? Notify others? I can see how individuals can get ostracized over being around a positive test. And it you test positive yourself... not good. Think about all the mental anguish the millions who have tested positive (and their families and their social networks have gone through). And of course there are the tens of thousands who have lost their life to the virus... lots of stress and anguish for everydoby there too. And tragedy of course. Not to mention what all the front line workers are going through every day (health care, food production, grocery stores etc). Soon teachers are going to be in the thick of it. The virus is wickedly complicated. That is why it should be managed by health care professionals and the politicians should stay in the shadows. In terms of how it has been handled by developed countries the US response to the virus is near the bottom of the list. 7 days to get a test result? In August? Gates said delays that long make testing useless. Crazy. But that is what you get with Trump as President. (And yes, it really is that simple.) 323m in lockdown > 5m positive Covid. Of the 20ish people I know who have had Covid. Not a single one has had “anguish”. Maybe one of them, but they were elderly so it’s understandable as they’re high risk. Perhaps the media should stops making it sound like if you get Covid you have been diagnosed with stage 4 brain cancer. 13% of the population takes anti depressants. And the AMA agrees that the majority of cases go undiagnosed. 48k people already commit suicide in the US every year. https://academic.oup.com/qjmed/advance-article/doi/10.1093/qjmed/hcaa202/5857612 Ben Franklin “A working man is a happy man. And idle man, is a most unhappy man.” I’m not saying open everything up. Just saying I think it deserves more attention.

Is anyone aware of more current studies touching in the correlation between unemployment and deaths? There is an older study often referenced which says for every 1% unemployment goes up, roughly 35k people die. Well sitting at 11% in the US (if true) we’re looking at 300k plus deaths. This is going to be a balancing game longterm. You can only overlook suicides, poor home situations, elderly people locked up wasting away, and general mental health concerns so long. Cabin fever isn’t good.

Same, not to mention there are over a dozen segments which AMD doesn't compete with Intel in.

Classic. Xenophobic rant when called out for using misleading stats. Didn’t you claim protests had no substantial influence on spread? 30m+ people protesting and rioting in the streets for over two months....

WFC - Broke even on my position. Plenty of other good banks out there at good prices. I think the thesis should be kept relatively simple. Too many "if they dos" for my liking. Couple that with the current environment and I'd rather try to find a better place for my money. I do believe there will be plenty of opportunities to re-enter a position within the next year should I change my mind.

Grocery store price increases aren't necessarily due to inflation. I think they can be more attributed to a lack of production in the meat slaughterhouses and produce farms. Also price gouging to prevent hording is also an aspect. It probably would be better to watch prices on consumer goods that are not "necessary". You very well may find inflation there, but I cannot speak to that.

Bullshit! You pretty much have to wear a mask anywhere you go in Ontario for a long time. I was a Skeptical too. But they do live in a small town so maybe the guidelines there are different. At the very least I figured Toronto and big cities would have mandates.

I talked with my brother in-law today. He lives in Ontario and said that they haven’t been required to wear a mask up until just two weeks ago.

My company which has a 45B market cap just decided to not renew office leases in California locations Chicago and possibly Miami and Phoenix. They also canceled the building of a new office building where I live which wasn’t even going to be started until 2025. My company is not in any type of fundamental trouble. They simply said they want to adapt to the changing work environment and will pursue permanent work from home accommodations. If they need office space for “employee get togethers” they said they will rent out work spaces for weeks at a time. They said employees have proven to be productive while working from home and that this frees up capital to improve the business in other areas. Edit: should have clarified. This is not across the board but for one business segment (tech/infrastructure)

Thanks for the recommendations, I will take a look.

I think what Spekulatius posted here is true, with regard to Europe. It will eventually change over time, I think [about air condition in homes]. I'm working on it for my own household. I think some threshold got broken here back in 2016 [i simply got enough of the heat in June 2016]. I have been told that persons of high age simply gradually "shut down", loosing their feeling of thirst and hunger. It creates a mess when we have heat waves. Old people are like leftovers. They require constant refrigeration so as to not spoil. ;D

Interesting read Here is the syllabus for the course Jim teaches at Yale. Plenty of links to articles and book recommendations with specific chapters referenced. Not sure if Yale does open courses like MIT that would be easy to find online. http://portal.som.yale.edu/sites/default/files/files/MGT%20848-01%20Financial%20Fraud%20A%20Forensic%20Approach%20-%20Spring-2%202015.pdf

Any YouTube Video Tutorials etc? I don't use their gear (not sure why anyone would pay those prices) but they have good instructional videos for loading a pack properly etc. In short, keep the weight high in the pack and close to your body. Use poles if you have bad knees. https://www.goruck.com/keep-training

Working from home was a bit of a change from the office. More distraction that can eat away at your time. I started using an app called Tomato Timer a few months ago after I continually caught myself being less productive. Changed my work pace and helped to keep me on track. I’m probably more productive than when in the office and will probably continue to use it once (if we ever) we go back. Also, I have been busting my ass three nights a week doing rucks. Exercise is important for mental health and productivity. It helps you feel accomplished through other means. The nights when my wife works I take a pack and load it up with 50lbs of sand pills I made. Head to a nearby trail that’s 8 miles out and back and start humping. I backpack a lot throughout the year so this is really just added training. Also really helped me improve my cardio. Getting closer to my 5 mile 40 minute goal.

Back then, there was a real fear that the Fed was going to run out of Treasuries as it was acting as a direct lender to financial firms that were desperate to exchange bad collateral for good (US Treasuries). At the time, the program was euphemistically known as "Treasuries for trash". Thus this announcement was declaring that the US Treasury was issuing $585b of T-Bills directly to the Fed and in return the Fed was crediting the US Treasury with $585b in settlement balances in its General account. The US Treasury did this to give the Fed more "ammunition". We've seen this again in this crisis, where the US Treasury has added $114b in "equity" to absorb first losses from some of the new Fed lending programs that could expose the Fed to losses. If the Treasury's Fed account can go negative, that constraint is eliminated and the Treasury may spend an infinite amount of dollars without any revenue. Even though the US left the gold standard in 1971, I think the old concepts when the US dollar was subordinated to gold have refused to die - even if they are no longer applicable. Through trial and error, we are finding that since severing the link to gold, the US Treasury has more fiscal capacity than we previously thought. Dick Cheney turned out to be an armchair Nobel economist when he said "deficits don't matter" - even if his utterance may have been a cynical exhortation to Congress to pass the Bush tax cuts in the early aughts. The reality is if you look at the Fed and the US Treasury on a consolidated basis - their three forms of private sector financial assets are all debts in that they are liabilities of their consolidated balance sheet (currency in circulation, bank reserves, Treasury debt). What is cash? It is a Federal Government IOU. In fact, here is a UK 20 pound note. These banknotes have a smiling Queen Elizabeth saying "I promise to pay bearer on demand the sum of twenty pounds". It sure sounds like some form of IOU. It seems like one could present a 20 pound note to the Queen, and she will give you a ...hmm...uhh... a shiny and new 20 pound note in exchange. 8) If one accepts that currency and banknotes are IOUs, then why is US Treasury Debt the only one of the three forms of Federal government liabilities that we consider debt? We think of money as a unit of account but what if it is really government debt? Why are they IOUs? Because banknotes are basically scrip that the private sector must obtain in order to extinguish its Federal tax (and fee) obligations that are imposed on the private sector by the government. The Federal government must operate in a deficit with the private sector so as to allow the private sector to accumulate the government's money to pay its taxes. Once the cycle starts, it becomes a flywheel that almost makes the original premise secondary (i.e., that the government's money is really a sort of "tax anticipation note payable"). Recently when States like California and Illinois got into financial trouble they would issue IOUs to suppliers. These IOUs were accepted locally because attached to these IOUs was a provision where the IOUs could be used to extinguish State govt tax and fee liabilities. Thus, not only were they accepted, but they also achieved some limited local circulation in commercial transactions with banks, for example. There are other historical examples. During the War of 1812, a cash-strapped (and gold-strapped) US government issued short-term US Treasury debt that paid a low nominal interest rate (but could also be used to extinguish tax liabilities). These notes circulated widely and some even continued to circulate well past their redemption date (and thus no long paid any interest). They continued to circulate because they became a form of banknote (money) as they could be presented to the Federal government for payment of taxes or tariffs owed. I think this forms the basis of MMT's theoretical framework and I am generally sympathetic to it. My problem with MMT is that it has been embraced largely by the left and thus it is hard to separate its explanatory features from its prescriptive (Green New Deal, Guaranteed Employment, etc). It also refuses to reconcile the opposing forces of fiscal capacity expansion versus currency debasement or give a nod to the economic benefits of low taxes and sound money. MMT-adherents tend to ignore the currency debasement part even when the evidence piles up (eg., gold). wabuffo Thanks for sharing your thoughts and explanations throughout this thread wabuffo. Was wondering if you have any books or resources you recommend to become better versed in this area? You clearly have spent a lot of time on this topic. thanks

Seems overweight from a Buffett perspective. Also, Apple's valuation seems a bit stretched right now. On the flip side BRK nets about 800m in dividends.

Castanza, You are a naughty boy! [ ; - D ][Actually, you remind me a bit about myself ...] ;D

So strip clubs are open and schools are closed? Interesting priorities, if true. Everyone in a strip club is probably already running a low grade fever anyways

I know this is about India and China but I figured it was better than starting a new thread. How long will the world stand by and watch this happen? - People blindfolded and loaded on buses (verified by western intelligence) - Forced sterilization of women including forced abortions - Suspected organ harvesting - 12 tons of human hair confiscated (https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/jul/01/china-muslim-labor-camps-uighur-hair-products) How would you go to war with a country that provides so much of your resources and products?

I'm jelly....tight lines

Pikesville Straight Rye

That's not really how we're supposed to do medicine and drugs. There's a reason why we bother with all those pesky drug trials and have prescriptions and stuff. These are not sugar pills. Drugs also have side effects and can be dangerous. I have yet to hear of a dream catcher side effect. That's why promoting wrong drugs is dangerous and irresponsible. People will seek those drugs. Doctors are supposed to be the gatekeepers but in many cases they just fold. That's how people were able to get huge amounts of oxy and kill themselves. Oh right and just cause the promotion comes from a buffoon doesn't make it any less harmless. After the disinfect yourself with bleach press conference there was a remarkable number of people that actually drank bleach. BLEACH! I must have missed the part of the conference where the lady doctor told everyone Covid was some alien sperm related thing. Did the other doctors who spoke subscribe to her strange views as well? There are plenty of quacks out there both known and unknown. I'd suspect if all of the quacks were known, there would be an awful shortage of "reliable" doctors, dentists, and scientists. Yea everything i've said just went woosh. Right back at ya :o Well it’s Thursday....time to head over to the booze thread ;D

That's not really how we're supposed to do medicine and drugs. There's a reason why we bother with all those pesky drug trials and have prescriptions and stuff. These are not sugar pills. Drugs also have side effects and can be dangerous. I have yet to hear of a dream catcher side effect. That's why promoting wrong drugs is dangerous and irresponsible. People will seek those drugs. Doctors are supposed to be the gatekeepers but in many cases they just fold. That's how people were able to get huge amounts of oxy and kill themselves. Oh right and just cause the promotion comes from a buffoon doesn't make it any less harmless. After the disinfect yourself with bleach press conference there was a remarkable number of people that actually drank bleach. BLEACH! I must have missed the part of the conference where the lady doctor told everyone Covid was some alien sperm related thing. Did the other doctors who spoke subscribe to her strange views as well? There are plenty of quacks out there both known and unknown. I'd suspect if all of the quacks were known, there would be an awful shortage of "reliable" doctors, dentists, and scientists.