Castanza

;D I hear it works on Wall Street! https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-11-24/u-s-bankruptcy-tracker-march-of-the-zombies-is-coming-soon Here's a Bloomberg article that discusses 2020 being the worst year since 2009 for numbers of bankruptcies for firms with greater than $50 million in liabilities. Seems like rent/mortgage deferrals, PPP loans, EIDL loans, etc really did help small businesses stay afloat temporarily. But how many can remain that way in 2021 without that ongoing support? According to U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, 20% of small businesses fail within the first year and 33% make it to year 10. So many nuanced variables that will have drastic impacts on the outcome of small businesses in this environment. I imagine the bankruptcy numbers will increase substantially post covid. Even with ongoing support, it feels like a death by 1000 cuts. If consumers are slow to pick up the reigns post stimulus, I think a lot of owners will simply not bother with the effort and hang it up. This could change the appetite to start or own small businesses. At least in the short term 1-5 years.

Michael Burry had an interesting tweet this today. https://twitter.com/michaeljburry/status/1346565099750793217?s=21 Claim was 529k company bankruptcies in 2020. Apparently that is a 35 year low. When the cocaine wears off....

And then in the very next paragraph: I think he is partially right and partially wrong. How can he say fundamentals are merely metrics used to sell stock, when he asks the same question to private investors. Asking "how soon can I get my money back?" and ignoring earnings or sales ratios is kind of silly. BTW, have you or anyone read the book he recommended, "The Number by Alex Berenson"? Probably I should post in the correct forum. I figured some others on here saw the article. Yeah he definitely does contradict himself a bit. I tried to ignore those points and focus more on the psychology of what he was saying. Read the Footnotes sums it up nicely. At some point (hence the 1999 thread) it seems like fundamentals don't matter at all. At least for the broader market. It seems like as long as some analyst is willing to slap a BUY rating on a stock it will go up. Cathie Wood has made a hell of a lot of money using this psychology to her advantage. I have not read the book.

https://blogmaverick.com/2013/01/10/the-stock-market-2/ Mildly interesting blog post from Mark Cuban in 2004 regarding the market and his personal experience taking a company public.

Gheez Castanza, we are 9 month into this, your wife is a nurse and that’s how well you are informed? You are correct, there are no LT studies on the vaccine and there is Little known a out the LT effects of COVID-19 either, except indications that there are some that could be a problem. Most importantly, the vaccine will absolutely absolutely prevents you from carrying COVID-19 and infecting others - in fact that’s one of the main benefits of vaccination. https://abc7news.com/covid-vaccine-masks-mask-wearing-pfizer/9139874 “Here's what the studies don't yet show. They haven't looked at whether the vaccine prevents someone from carrying COVID-19 and spreading it to others. It's possible that someone could get the vaccine but could still be an asymptomatic carrier. They may not show symptoms, but they have the virus in their nasal passageway so that if they're speaking, breathing, sneezing and so on, they can still transmit it to others.” Obviously if you don’t have symptoms you’re far less likely to spread it since you aren’t sneezing and coughing all over. Yes, the vaccine helps reduce spread but it is t an end all solution. Hence the requirement to continue wearing masks and social distancing. As I said before....I will take it...but currently there are others who should get it first. That’s why my original question was....are there any SIGNIFICANT benefits for a person under 30 to justify getting the vaccine early over those who are high risk or work on the front line.

What is not plausible? And for the record, I’m not against the vaccine. I will gladly take it. I’m asking what the benefit is health wise for a low risk individual. I work from home, my wife already had it (three days of symptoms). I tested negative towards the end of her 14 day quarantine and I quarantined for an additional 14 days. Didn’t bother getting tested again. I’m young and healthy. Seems selfish to take the vaccine when it’s in scarce supply. But I guess to the “bUh mY OuTDOOr COncERt” crowd; I’m the selfish one? My wife is a nurse. If I go get tested for covid and test positive she has to quarantine. If I get the flu and test negative for covid, she has to quarantine. If I get the vaccine and experience symptoms of covid, she has to quarantine. If I get covid, have symptoms, and self isolate away from her....she still has to quarantine. If I get covid and have no symptoms she doesn’t have to quarantine because it’s unknown if I have it. If I get the vaccine and don’t get covid symptoms I could still spread it and be contagious. (Per CDC) Effectively she has to quarantine for everything and the vaccine provides no benefit to me or her (if I take). I simply take a dose from someone else when the vaccine is in short supply. Just stop while you're not too far behind. Behind on what? Do explain. Living up to your username. George was frequently obtuse as well. What did I say that was wrong? If you’re young and healthy you are very unlikely to experience any adverse symptoms. The vaccine is in limited supply. The vaccine does not prevent you from carrying covid, nor does it prevent you from being contagious and spreading covid. So far from what I’ve read, there is no additional benefit to getting the vaccine for individuals who have already contracted covid and gotten over it (unknown for me). Longterm studies on vaccine: none Longterm studies on covid: none Is there any significant health benefit for young healthy individuals from the vaccine to warrant getting it before high risk individuals? As it stands if I get covid the worst I’m am likely to experience is bad flu like symptoms for 14 days max. For me personally, it’s easy enough to self quarantine if I get it. Why would I want to take a rushed to market vaccine if I am extremely low risk? If weighing current risk vs current reward is obtuse.....well, I guess I’m obtuse.

Attending live concerts, international travel, admittance to in-person university classes, contributing to the greater good as it relates to herd immunity. And, you know, Gates and Soros whispering in your ear through the chip You can still spread and carry covid even after receiving the vaccine (per CDC). Edit: I love the responses from the holier than thou assholes on this forum. Neither asked me why. Neither answered the question from a health perspective on an individual basis. Here is a question for you two. Why should a young person take the vaccine which is in limited supply over and elderly high risk individual or frontline worker? Overly emotional individuals like yourselves are cancer to society. Scream louder. You didn’t list health benefits. And you equated me to an anti Baxter conspiracy theorist for asking a rational question. Which ironically nobody has answered as of yet.

What is not plausible? And for the record, I’m not against the vaccine. I will gladly take it. I’m asking what the benefit is health wise for a low risk individual. I work from home, my wife already had it (three days of symptoms). I tested negative towards the end of her 14 day quarantine and I quarantined for an additional 14 days. Didn’t bother getting tested again. I’m young and healthy. Seems selfish to take the vaccine when it’s in scarce supply. But I guess to the “bUh mY OuTDOOr COncERt” crowd; I’m the selfish one? My wife is a nurse. If I go get tested for covid and test positive she has to quarantine. If I get the flu and test negative for covid, she has to quarantine. If I get the vaccine and experience symptoms of covid, she has to quarantine. If I get covid, have symptoms, and self isolate away from her....she still has to quarantine. If I get covid and have no symptoms she doesn’t have to quarantine because it’s unknown if I have it. If I get the vaccine and don’t get covid symptoms I could still spread it and be contagious. (Per CDC) Effectively she has to quarantine for everything and the vaccine provides no benefit to me or her (if I take). I simply take a dose from someone else when the vaccine is in short supply. Just stop while you're not too far behind. Behind on what? Do explain.

Not being selfish and spreading it to the community and potentially harming / killing those at risk. I also know a healthy 30 year old who died... so there's that too. Americans are way too skeptical of their government. Just take the damn vaccine to help yourself out and those around you. Be a good neighbor.

What is not plausible? And for the record, I’m not against the vaccine. I will gladly take it. I’m asking what the benefit is health wise for a low risk individual. I work from home, my wife already had it (three days of symptoms). I tested negative towards the end of her 14 day quarantine and I quarantined for an additional 14 days. Didn’t bother getting tested again. I’m young and healthy. Seems selfish to take the vaccine when it’s in scarce supply. But I guess to the “bUh mY OuTDOOr COncERt” crowd; I’m the selfish one? My wife is a nurse. If I go get tested for covid and test positive she has to quarantine. If I get the flu and test negative for covid, she has to quarantine. If I get the vaccine and experience symptoms of covid, she has to quarantine. If I get covid, have symptoms, and self isolate away from her....she still has to quarantine. If I get covid and have no symptoms she doesn’t have to quarantine because it’s unknown if I have it. If I get the vaccine and don’t get covid symptoms I could still spread it and be contagious. (Per CDC) Effectively she has to quarantine for everything and the vaccine provides no benefit to me or her (if I take). I simply take a dose from someone else when the vaccine is in short supply.

Attending live concerts, international travel, admittance to in-person university classes, contributing to the greater good as it relates to herd immunity. And, you know, Gates and Soros whispering in your ear through the chip You can still spread and carry covid even after receiving the vaccine (per CDC). Edit: I love the responses from the holier than thou assholes on this forum. Neither asked me why. Neither answered the question from a health perspective on an individual basis. Here is a question for you two. Why should a young person take the vaccine which is in limited supply over and elderly high risk individual or frontline worker? Overly emotional individuals like yourselves are cancer to society. Scream louder.

What is the benefit of taking the vaccine for healthy individuals under the age of 30?

Merry Christmas all!

Robinhood to lower margin rates from 5% to 2.5%

An acquaintance of us bought an Airstream this summer. I have seen his wive walkthroughs of the interior and a lot of pictures but none where on the road. I wonder if they used it at all. I do think 2 years from now there will be a buyers market for used ones. My parents own a Bambi model. They drove all over the country this past year. Honestly, they are pretty sweet little campers.

Agree with all the above. I'm adding quite a bit more here. Getting close to a 15% position

ATCO

Richard what evidence is there regarding this statement? You and I both know that you don't care at all about the answer to this question, because the answer's obvious to everyone who's followed American pandemic news even the tiniest bit for the past 9 months. One doesn't need to provide supporting evidence to say that the sky is blue, ice is cold, and the sun rises in the east. So, I'm just going to save us both time, and not bother with an answer. I do care about the answer. And see? You don't care about any of this. That's what I mean by it being as obvious as the sky is blue. And it's equally as obvious that you don't actually care to have an accurate view of how the actions of the President of the United States may have contributed to the explosion of cases during the worse pandemic in the USA in 100 years. That's why it's a waste of both our time. By the end of JULY there was 26 million people who attended BLM rallies and protests crossing state lines. Since then that number is likely about 50%+ more. It was the largest event in US history. You can take all of Trumps rallies and its population total is a drop in the bucket compared to GLM rallies, protests and riots. Rule for thee, but not for me. The fact is all of these behaviors likely influenced the spread rate....plenty of foolishness to go around.

What do you mean by false positive? -not contagious, no disease, no virus (true error) -not contagious, no disease, immaterial virus -not contagious, immaterial disease, virus+ As you likely know, the distribution of results along the Ct-threshold axis is different in the community vs when becoming hospitalized with Covid-19 confirmed by both clinical criteria and PCR test. Still, the trends in positive tests and test positivity in the community vs hospitalizations tend to be correlated. Do you think people who have become hospitalized with Covid-19 are falsely labeled positive as a result of the casedemic? I think the heart of the question is at what CT is an individuals a risk of spread? PCR is sort of rudimentary no? I mean at a CT of say 40, you have found the covid virus. But you’ve also “amplified” it way beyond the actual existing amount. I guess it doesn’t really matter if the goal is to err on the side of caution. I find it interesting at the lack of standardization from a global perspective. If the US is counting 40CT as positive and Portugal isn’t a positive until it’s 25 then there is clearly big discrepancies of Covid cases. I guess that’s not all that important either as the individuals who are in hospitals are there regardless.

Yup, I brought this up in the spring, and it was widely determined by the experts here not to be relevant to anything even though cycle threshold is 10000% relevant to everything regarding spread/severity of this "cold". Or that the vast majority of positives in the US would have been negatives in other countries..... So the questions are ... if I’m reading the article correctly. What CT is indicative of infection and spread? What is the average CT of current test history in the US? Edit: current CDC stance Can cycle threshold (Ct) values be used to assess when a person with COVID-19 is no longer infectious? No. Although attempts to culture virus from upper respiratory specimens have been largely unsuccessful when Ct values are in high but detectable ranges, Ct values are not a measure of viral burden, are not standardized by RT-PCR platform, and have not been approved by FDA for use in clinical management. CDC does not endorse or recommend use of Ct values to assess when a person is no longer infectious; however, serial Ct values may be useful in the context of the entire body of information available when assessing recovery and resolution of infection. Nov 18, 2020

I'm not the landlord...

That’s what I figured would be the case. I pretty much told my friend to just leave and then clean when they get back if they’re worried about catching covid. It’s got to be give and take. Landlords have it pretty rough right now too. I can see a lot of renters putting up a fight over this though. And in some cases, say an immune compromised person I can see some reason for caution.

Not sure where to put this but... For those of you who are landlords, how have you been handling showings during the pandemic? I had a friend who is moving out of an apartment and is pissed because their landlord is showing the place as normal. They work third shift in the healthcare field and people coming in during the middle of the day doesn’t work well. They also are pretty nervous about covid and don’t like a dozen different people coming in their home every week. They also are supposed to be extra careful because of their occupation. I haven’t seen any laws or restrictions on this. And quite honestly, haven’t thought about it since I don’t rent. Seems like a pita to deal with.

Encourage masks, hand washing, social distancing. Encourage high risk individuals to stay home/be cautious and to get the vaccine when it comes out. Allow others to go on with life. To me that's reasonable It remains to be seen if there will be enough hospital beds. What’s your point?

Encourage masks, hand washing, social distancing. Encourage high risk individuals to stay home/be cautious and to get the vaccine when it comes out. Allow others to go on with life. To me that's reasonable