Castanza

The best take on the situation imo https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/hidden-forces/id1205359334?i=1000565338940

I don’t understand what’s going on there yet you equate it to slavery and the Holocaust…. Putin has been saying and has said what he was going to do since the 2000’s. He’s doing exactly what he said he was going to do. 2008 - Bucharest NATO Summit - NATO discussed expansion and recognizing Ukraine. Russia explicitly drew a line in the sand and said what they would do and why. 6 years go by and NATO pushed on with their goals. Then you have the 2014 Russian response in Crimea. Another 8 years go by and the west continues to ignore the line drawn in the sand. The Soviet Union fell a long time ago. Why are you not pounding the table for the dozen other wars going on around the globe? Don’t call me selfish because you can’t separate your emotion from reality. Here you go https://fightforua.org/

Is there a winner if all the infrastructure is destroyed? There are certainly a lot losers. If Ukraine holds off Russia and Putin runs away with his tail between his legs but all their infrastructure and industry is destroyed are the people there better off? How many will stay? How much will it cost? Who will pay? Why is Ukraine already asking for money to rebuild? The war shows no signs of slowing. Record breaking amounts of lobbying for Ukraine; many “pro bono”. 10k contacts made with congress before the war even started . More than the Saudis. Think Tanks, Lawyers, you name it. How is it that Zelensky can claim he is being hunted constantly by spec ops and survived multiple attacks yet somehow the guy doesn’t miss a zoom meeting to ask for money? https://www.vox.com/platform/amp/23188403/inside-ukraine-foreign-lobbying-blitz-washington-fara-justice There is undoubtedly a shit ton of fraud going on. “Never let a good crisis go to waste” Paging Dick Cheney

That doesn’t answer the question as to why the US is taking the lead. At the end of all this who do you think will incur the majority of the cost? People have been war weary in the states for well over a decade and have been very critical of military spending. Now all of a sudden that stance goes out the window? The US is pricing itself out future power by constantly expending itself and footing the bill. We have enough problems back home to deal with. When you try to apply morality to geo politics you end up with situations like Vietnam, Kosovo, Libya, Afghanistan and Iraq. NATO went from being a defensive tool to an offensive regime changing tool and it has failed miserably. NATO is what lead to this entire situation. If Russia takes Ukraine what changes? I’m skeptical of the view that Russia would push any further. Disregarding their ability to even do so, where would they go and why? I would rather the US take in the refuges than fork over billions of dollars with zero oversight to a nation with very corrupt politics. Our current involvement is possibly going to drag us into a land war. Very few militaries including ours is prepared for a land war. Ukraine was one of the largest armies in Europe equipped to fight a land war. While the US and other nations have been perfecting small unit tactics, Russia has been practicing and focusing on large scale land warfare. People are not giving them credit where credit is due. Look at the US in 03. Logistics were a mess and we barely took on an already weak Iraq army. From my layman perspective it seems like we are spending a lot of money now and future by prolonging the inevitable. What we’re doing now is simply destroying more infrastructure and ultimately draining resources. I think negotiation should be top priority

Does any nation truly have a "right" to exist? You either choose to exist and defend it through strength of arms or you get conquered. That is history. Why does the US need to take the lead on this? Ukraine is not a NATO country. EU needs to step up...otherwise what's the point of the EU? Anyone concerned with the lack of oversight regarding funding? This is going to get expensive for the US. Ukraine now announcing that 750 Billion is required to rebuild....

The new hippy communes destined to fail

ATCO, BRK.B, CLF, INTC, BAC, ALCO, PENN Edit: MSGE

Picked some up as well! Finally had the price alert hit

SCCO starting to look a little interesting here

BRK.B

https://www.benzinga.com/news/22/06/27713137/xi-jinping-signs-order-directing-chinese-troops-to-take-special-military-operations-abroad?utm_campaign=partner_feed&utm_source=SmartNews&utm_medium=partner_feed&utm_content=site Clickbait but could cause some more waves in the Chinese Equity market

I'll call that Sold my remaining heating oil I had in left in the tank (120 gallons) to some guy on craigslist for $4.75/gal. Paid about half that for it last winter. Going to be a good market for wood stoves this coming winter.

Bingo "Experts" have nothing to go off of but hindsight analysis or textbook definitions. Throw in "unprecedented times" and it's like throwing sand in their microchips. They can't process it and flounder. I find it helpful to look for the simplest approaches. What's a problem(s) that was highlighted during covid that will persist for the next 5-10 years AND could persist or create business(company side)/buying(equity side) opportunity if we get an economic slowdown? Energy, commodities, materials, shipping, microchips, housing All of these categories show increasing demand over the next 10 years in any environment (if you look in the right places).

INTC, BRK, VET, CLF

Depends how long your view is. Kuppy has recently made some interesting remarks regarding nuclear investment. Bill Gates is working on new reactors (and he always has the ear of WB). So to say there is no reason to look at nuclear from an investment point of view is a bit short sighted (but I agree it may not be actionable outside of a nuclear ETF). Energy plays are almost always far looking because the transitions are slow and full of regulatory hurdles. What is your high level view on energy over the next 20 years? More solar and wind combined with nat gas?

There is no pleasing the religious climate crowd. They don't see the world as it is which makes it impossible to reason with them. Fact is, life has to go on and no amount of solar and wind can easily or readily provide enough energy for even half the baseload. Not to mention the decades or more it will take to implement such infrastructure all while ignoring the unintended consequences of massive strip mines, recycle refuse, solar fields, etc. Nat gas and nuclear is the clear path forward. Unless Musk discovers Unobtanium on Mars, there is no other way to keep up with current energy demands and trends.

Lucky man Nice I'll have to check them out! Unfortunately no Costco in my area (probably different stock anyways). I am lucky to have a friend in KY who I have grab a few bottles for me whenever we meet up. His wife actually designed the new tasting room at Heaven Hill.

I'd be happy if I could find a bottle of Michters, Leadslingers or hell even a bottle of Larceny.

Link to report https://www.census.gov/construction/nrs/pdf/newressales.pdf

Dude is one Hell of an operator https://www.tasteofhome.com/article/arizona-iced-tea-99-cents/

INTC

lmao will be a good snapshot into the future of politics for sure.

Yeah and that make sense. I agree that rates in general have been too low for too long, but I’m worried about (and it seems like the Fed is as well) of overrunning the thesis of inflation. This situation is very different from past scenarios and it seems like uncharted waters. Let the market work! There are still countries just opening up including China. idk, I get what you’re saying but this situation feels like every move you make there is an equal or opposite reaction waiting in another sector to push back. Look at the situation with fertilizer production and gas prices. It’s impossible to produce this stuff at a profit right now. Couple this with droughts in the US, war in Ukraine and we are going to have very high corn prices resulting in bleed through to other sectors like livestock. Interest rates aren’t helping here at all….Maybe sometimes they should just let it shake out. The Fed has a worn and rusty tool box that gives them very little precisions. Politicians almost always focus on the wrong issues and situations ($30 min wage to combat inflation LOL c’mon man!…) Global most major countries are in same boat. They have right around 7-9% inflation. After this mess clears I think it’s going to be a race for de-globalization. At the end of the day this is mostly noise to me and honestly provides investment opportunities so I guess I can’t complain too much.

Does the Fed even need to raise rates? Most of this inflation is supply chain related. Hopefully shake out over the next 1-2 years. Curbing demand is temporary…and difficult to manage without unintended consequences. Rates hikes help in some areas but hurts in others…Seems we need an act of congress and not the Fed.

IQ definitely plays a big role in success. The correlation between IQ distribution and US class breakdown is pretty damning. The further up the social ladder you are the fewer financial variables you have to deal with in life. I'd argue that's why those numbers are better correlated. The further down you go the more mobility between classes you have, but the more "shit" you have to deal with that can impact your ability to make that change. If I'm a blue collar family man I'm not taking additional risks in life during a recession. I'm likely trying to reduce costs, thinking of my immediate family and hoping the local plant doesn't close. Talk to any blue collar worker who went through 2008 and their primary concern would be job availability/security. Most of them didn't give two shits about the "market" because they probably didn't own any stocks other than their 401k. You're not sweating car repairs, college tuition, groceries, little league/local sports costs for your kids if you're upper/upper middle class. You're thinking about not renewing the golf club membership or possibly bumping down to a single vacation. _______________________________________ US Upper Class Percentage of Population = 19% / 111-120 Above Average Intelligence = 15.7% of Population US Middle Class Percentage of Population = 52% / 90-110 Average Intelligence = 51.6% of Population US Lower Class Percentage of Population = 29% / 80-89 Below Average Intelligence = 15.7% of Population _______________________________________ 121+ Gifted and up = 8.5% 70-79 Cognitively Impaired = 6.4% (probably not in the workforce) US Poverty Rate Population = 11.4% (likely the bottom portion of Below Average Intelligence IQ Population) *83 minimum for military entrance. So if you're below that, the government basically is saying there is no job you are capable of performing