nwoodman

The performance fees are calculated on a 3 year basis so the first performance fee should be paid at the end of this year From the Q1 FIH report (BVPS $12.50): The performance fee is accrued quarterly and paid for the period from January 30, 2015 to December 31, 2017 and for each consecutive three-year period thereafter, and is calculated, on a cumulative basis, as 20% of any increase in common shareholders' equity (including distributions) above a 5% per annum increase. The amount of common shareholders' equity at any time which must be achieved before any performance fee would be payable is sometimes referred to as the "hurdle per share". The company determined that a performance fee of $45,941 should be accrued for the first quarter of 2017 as the book value per share of $12.50 (before factoring in the impact of the performance fee) at March 31, 2017 was greater than the hurdle per share at that date of $10.98. If a performance fee is payable for the period ending on December 31, 2017, it will be paid in subordinate voting shares of the company unless the market prices per share of those shares is at least two times the then book value per share, in which event Fairfax may elect to receive that fee in cash. In the first quarter of 2017, the performance fee recorded in the consolidated statements of earnings was $44,571 (2016 - nil). Not sure what will happen in terms of revaluing their stakes in BIAL, but simplistically if the share price is tracking NAV, then they have exceeded the hurdle of 10*1.05^3= 11.58 => Out performance 16-11.58=4.42/share 20% Fee = 0.884/share Shares out 140m Performance Fee = $123m I am sure it won't wash through completely but the point is FIH has the potential to make a bucket load of money for them. Fairfax can run their holding from the current 30% of FIH up to 49% after that it is to be paid in cash. Not difficult to see them reaching that level of ownership relatively quickly cheers nwoodman

Nice summary and worth a read Fairfax Financial’s Evolution to Global Player http://www.economicswire.net/fairfax-financials-evolution-to-global-player.html

Thanks, for the update. Do you have a reference for the other jurisdictions mentioned? Arkansas Approval http://www.insurance.arkansas.gov/news/2017/jun/19/kerr-approves-1b-acquisition/ New Hampshire Approval http://www.nh.gov/insurance/legal/documents/order_alliedworldacquisition06.22.17.pdf OMERS - not related to the above https://www.nh.gov/insurance/legal/documents/nh_forma_omers_alliedwld.pdf Looks like the Delaware hearing is scheduled for next Tuesday http://insurance.delaware.gov/wp-content/uploads/sites/15/2017/05/public-hearing-regarding-individual-licensee-fairfax-UPDATED.pdf Cheers nwoodman

The Arkansas Insurance Department has approved the acquisition of two domestic affiliated companies, Allied World Surplus Lines Insurance (AWSLIC) and Vantapro Specialty Insurance Co., by Swiss and Canadian companies............The acquisition must still be approved by Delaware, New Hampshire, and four foreign governments. http://www.insurancejournal.com/news/southcentral/2017/06/19/455052.htm cheers nwoodman

If it makes you feel better. Brian Bradstreet is also buying at these levels https://www.thecerbatgem.com/2017/06/21/fairfax-financial-holdings-ltd-ffh-director-f-brian-bradstreet-purchases-1000-shares.html cheers nwoodman SVTItdOneLineDetailNoDerivIns.pdf

BENGALURU: Karnataka's Energy Minister D.K.Shivakumar has sought the intervention of Chief Minister Siddaramaiah to block any further sale of stake by the Hyderabad-based GVK Group in Bangalore International Airport Limited (BIAL). Canadian billionaire Prem Watsa-controlled Fairfax Group has announced its plans to purchase 10% of reminder stake from the GVK Group which will pave way for GVK Group's complete exit from the international airport. http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/industry/transportation/airlines-/-aviation/karnataka-minister-seeks-to-block-gvk-groups-stake-sale-in-bengaluru-airport-to-fairfax/articleshow/59193671.cms

This could be an interesting development, especially in light of Fairfax's tilt at Catholic Syrian Bank in India http://www.independent.ie/business/irish/bank-of-ireland-ceo-boucher-weighs-up-new-role-with-billionaire-prem-watsa-35800984.html cheers nwoodman

I am getting 1.16 +/-5%. Cheers nwoodman

I certainly agree with that. Nice work and thanks for sharing. Probably irrationally, I am also willing to pay up a little for the opportunity to participate in India. cheers nwoodman

Don't disagree, but if it ultimately "converts" to yet more geographic and/or strategic coverage for the insurance ops then I would be more than happy. cheers nwoodman

This one seems to be working out very nicely. From the Independent http://www.independent.ie/business/irish/fbd-faces-battle-for-control-after-shares-soar-35687594.html and A move to more of these "paid to wait" type deals is very welcome cheers nwoodman

Looks like an interesting prospect with a strong growth profile http://m.economictimes.com/news/company/corporate-trends/prem-watsa-deepak-parekh-and-2-others-join-bial-board/articleshow/57927501.cms

Nothing solid, but suggests they might get $1bn+ for their ICICI Lombard Stake "Shares of ICICI Bank gained 2 percent intraday Thursday after a media report suggested that global private equity firms are looking to acquire Fairfax's shareholding in general insurance company ICICI Lombard. "Global private equity firms including The Carlyle Group, Warburg Pincus Llc and Advent International have evinced interest in acquiring the 35 percent stake in ICICI Lombard General Insurance held by Canadian financial institution Fairfax Financial Holdings," a media report said quoting people aware of the development. According to a report, the proposed deal will value the joint venture at USD 3 billion (around Rs 20,000 crore). ICICI Lombard General Insurance Company is a joint venture between ICICI Bank, India's second largest lender and Canada’s Fairfax Financial Holdings. ICICI Bank holds 65 percent stake and the rest is held by Farifax in joint venture." http://www.moneycontrol.com/news/buzzing-stocks/icici-bank2-as-pe-firms-shows-interest-for-stakelombard_8584341.html

Looks like Suncorp is throwing their hat in the ring.... "Suncorp chief executive Michael Cameron has raided Tower’s share registry, as part of a potential new strategy of building up the bank’s life insurance business by carrying out some big name acquisitions. The Queensland regional bank, through its Vero brand, is keen to buy 19.9 per cent of Tower, the New Zealand-listed insurance business, which is now the subject of a takeover tussle. Canadian firm Fairfax Financial Holdings launched a $197 million bid for Tower earlier this month, which was supported by the board and major shareholders. But, in a surprise move, Suncorp commissioned UBS to enter the market after the close yesterday and offer $NZ1.21 a share to buy the stock." http://www.theaustralian.com.au/business/dataroom/suncorp-makes-play-for-tower/news-story/4243124ba76af926dc14edc5736ce28a

Allied world results https://www.twst.com/update/awac-allied-world-assurance-company-holdings-ag-allied-world-reports-fourth-quarter-and-full-year-2016-results/ YE CR 96.2% Cheers nwoodman

Recent Planet Money Podcast on Ed Thorpe http://www.npr.org/sections/money/2017/01/20/510810752/episode-749-professor-blackjack

It strikes me that this is the kind of deal you would do when you are about to take a hit to book. It is always difficult to know exactly what they hold but my guesstimate is Equities= Flat Bonds = -300m even after the sale of UST. If they hadn't sold they would have wiped a further $350m Hedges = -250m even after reducing them by half. If they hadn't closed out half then it would have wiped a further $300m So another quarter with assets dropping around 500-600m Add back (perhaps) U/W profit of 175m and say $75m of interest and divs Gives a loss of around $250m - $350m pre-tax I am tipping book value declined by $10-15 during the quarter. Also why wait until now when AWH was trading much cheaper (-20% to -30%) for most of 2016. I guess by the time the deal closes in 2017 book value will hopefully be back to the level the deal was made at and then some. Perhaps this is why they want the flexibility to do cash rather than stock in the event something radically changes in the next 6 months. As it stands Prem seems to be sending a pretty strong signal that, at the current share price, the stock ain't cheap cheers nwoodman

"The deal, under which Fairfax will pick up a majority stake in the capital-starved lender for Rs 1,000 crore (USD 147m), is unique because it gives the Canadian company just 15% voting rights in the bank in line with the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) regulations. In other words, it opens up a new door for investors wanting a piece of the lucrative Indian banking sector within existing regulations. " http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/industry/banking/finance/banking/how-prem-watsas-deal-to-buy-stake-in-csb-offers-ray-of-hope-for-ailing-banks/articleshow/55843011.cms Any thoughts to how this works? My guess is two share classes, with the second having negligible voting rights but equal rights economically when it comes to distributions (eg Brk.A and Brk.B). Interesting that if it closes, Fairfax will be the first company allowed to invest in such a way cheers nwoodman

Thanks for posting. Certainly a couple of points cheaper than a few weeks ago. Politically a very high chance it will close. A very interesting litmus test for what the middle game in India could achieve cheers nwoodman

It might also be partly due to the cluster$%^% that is India (at the moment). Prem's bullishness there is all about PM Modi reforming the economy. For this to happen Modi needs to last more than one term http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-11-17/indian-economy-grinds-halt-after-cash-ban-demonetisation-has-shaken-our-faith-moneta cheers nwoodman

Are the US deflation hedges next? Cheers nwoodman

Opening remarks and Q&A attached cheers nwoodman Opening_Remarks_FFH_CC__4-11-16.mp3 QandA_FFH_CC__4-11-16_.mp3

That was the standout for me too! cheers nwoodman

With respect to all, can we please quit this line of reasoning. The IQ thesis debate, has been well argued by both sides, so let's leave it at that. My original post was simply drawing attention to Prem's view on the prospects for India. This will either work or it won't. I think a more interesting topic of discussion is whether PM Modi can make changes required for growth, that in turn, will achieve above average returns for Fairfax. Cheers nwoodman

http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/et-now/experts/very-bullish-on-fin-services-in-india-prem-watsa/videoshow/54689041.cms Cheers nwoodman