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ubuy2wron

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Posts posted by ubuy2wron

  1. I have been doing this for decades and I expect this to be a banner year for implementing this strategy.

    To implement this strategy you look for a company that has been a loser for the year and selling at year lows or multi year lows in December and is experiencing increasing volume. Institutions and individuals will often sell their losers in December to trigger a tax loss to offset gains. The sellers sell fro tax reasons the buyers are buying because of valuation reasons. The selling will start to recede as we approach the end of the year and natural supply and demand forces cause a  pop in the stock. This is called tax bounce or year end or January effect.  It is most pronounced in companies with smaller floats and mkt caps. It is he single most consistent trading strategy that I have encountered. I have been actively looking at the energy sector as being a lucrative area as well as the mining sector. Good luck and good hunting.

  2. The current social signs does look like a warning, but I am curious how many value investors were calling for the top from 1991 to 1999? :)

    I think value investors tend to sell too early, and buy too early.

    My gut feeling is that the market will have a short dip to scare all these Common Man investors out, and then start to rally strongly after that. Then when these Common Man investors realized that the market has gone up so much after their panic selling, they got back into the market with a mood of revenge and hatred. :)

    Value investors tend to sell to early and buy too early. Right on the button and the plague of the value investor until you think of the curse of the momentum investor, you buy too late and sell too late.
  3. I'll tell you when to find the market top.

     

    The big name shorts keep predicting the market top and lose tons of $ on their shorts. when they start to give up, then we've a market top.

     

    Speculators don't use the words "Taking a moment to study up", "put my Stanford education to work". It is all about buying something because it is going up.

      See the following link it might open your eyes.http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-05-16/morgan-stanley-most-buying-has-come-shorts-covered-rather-longs-bought
  4. Who invented the "Keynesian endgame" hook? Must be very recent because I'm not finding hits before 2009. Kyle Bass probably? 

     

    http://goo.gl/mZ2ro

     

    Not working very well lately.

     

    Japan Sovereign CDS:

     

    Japan Corporate CDS:

     

    Milton Friedman on the "Keynesian Endgame" before it was invented.

     

    http://marketmonetarist.com/2013/05/25/two-cheers-for-higher-japanese-bond-yields-in-the-spirit-of-milton-friedman/

    I do not know who coined the term Keynsian end game but using the term does not indicate you are denigrating Keynes. I do not believe Mr Keynes would be supportive of Japanese economic policy. The end game in Japan if Kyle Bass is right will not result in a default in a classical sense, when it comes down to promises to voters and interest and princial payments to bond holders I believe the bond holders win in capitalist countries. The end game is a lot of seniors in Japan better like ramen noodles cuz they wil be eating them for the rest of their lives. Buying CDS on sovereign debt makes about as much sense to me as buying insurance against a large asteroid impact. I would write that policy all day long every day until the asteroid hit, then who cares. Japan seems to me to be as Kyle described a bug in search of a wind shield. The stock mkt and real estate market went to insane valuations then crashed (but no one went broke) Twenty plus years of extend and pretend have transpired in Japan while the govt. piled on debt and told the populace not to worry or to question anything. Now the central bank is leading a banzai charge to the edge of the cliff.  Well if central bankers can somehow repeal the laws of physics perhaps the economy will take flight when it gets to the edge but I'm betting the anchor of 240% debt to GDP kinda gets in the way of a soaring economy.
  5. A couple of comments based on those replies, and then a question...

     

    1)  defaults will remain low because because interest rates will remain low for a long time

    2)  defaults will remain low because underwriting standards have improved and the weak credits in legacy books have been culled

     

    What constitutes a long-time? 

     

    The earnings yield on S&P500 is 7% annually and the thing that threatens it (higher rates) is a long ways off according to Watsa (and the bond market seems to agree with Watsa, so he's not exactly contrarian in saying this).

     

    The trouble I see in using the Schiller P/E over the next few years is that if rates stay this low (as Watsa forecasts) for years and years going forward, then the Schiller P/E10 will begin to look a lot more benign even without a market drop.  You will then need a Schiller P/E13, then a P/E 15, etc...

     

    Unless its floating rate debt, I don't get the logic of #1.

     

    Why don't you get the logic of #1?  Given that defaults are low because of low interest rates, it naturally follows that continued low interest rates lead to continued low defaults.

     

    The low rates have been low for years now.  The loan portfolio is seasoned such that the remaining credits in the aggregate loan portfolio is either of low rate or they are hardy seasoned credits at higher rates (the weaker credits having already defaulted).

    Credit is tight? I do not think so, 1-junk bond issuance is off the charts with the greatest increases in the worst credit and2- the explosion in sovereign debt is breath taking and the world is STILL relying on credit rating agencies. Japan is rated double AA.  The Keynsian endgame will likely show up in Japan next ,its already happened in Greece and Cypress. I am guessing like Greece and Cyprus there are no winners only losers

     

  6. What a fu*king joke!  Apparently, according to this article, Cohen is mulling closing his fund to outside investors in exchange for admitting wrong doing at the fund.  So, the a-hole gets to keep his fortune, run a family office, as long as he admits to making his money illegally and unethically.  It's this type of bullcrap that gives the 99% something to protest about!  Cheers!

     

    http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-05-20/sac-s-cohen-said-to-mull-deal-that-would-shut-hedge-fund.html

     

    “One of the reasons why deferred prosecution agreements are such a powerful tool is that, in many ways, a DPA has the same punitive, deterrent, and rehabilitative effect as a guilty plea,” Lanny Breuer, then an assistant U.S. attorney general, said in a speech to the New York Bar City Association in September.

     

    I don't understand why, do you? It is almost like the prosecutors patting Cohen's head, saying: "oh, my poor little kid, don't cry. If you don't do this again, daddy won't kick your butt, ok?"

    See link re Lanny Breuer http://www.corporatecrimereporter.com/news/200/breuercovington03282013/
  7. What a fu*king joke!  Apparently, according to this article, Cohen is mulling closing his fund to outside investors in exchange for admitting wrong doing at the fund.  So, the a-hole gets to keep his fortune, run a family office, as long as he admits to making his money illegally and unethically.  It's this type of bullcrap that gives the 99% something to protest about!  Cheers!

     

    http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-05-20/sac-s-cohen-said-to-mull-deal-that-would-shut-hedge-fund.html

     

    “One of the reasons why deferred prosecution agreements are such a powerful tool is that, in many ways, a DPA has the same punitive, deterrent, and rehabilitative effect as a guilty plea,” Lanny Breuer, then an assistant U.S. attorney general, said in a speech to the New York Bar City Association in September.

     

    I don't understand why, do you? It is almost like the prosecutors patting Cohen's head, saying: "oh, my poor little kid, don't cry. If you don't do this again, daddy won't kick your butt, ok?"

    Lanny Breuer has since left the govt and works for a Wall Street law firm the represents the likes of Mr Cohen and the rest of the big banks.
  8. http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-03-15/sac-unit-cr-intrinsic-pay-largest-ever-insider-trading-case-settlement-no-charges-ar

     

    If I see "admits to no wrongdoing" again on a 9 figure settlement I think I will be violently ill.

     

    Agreed all around.  Have you seen the video of Elizabeth Warren asking the regulators when the last time was they took a big bank to trial?  Depressing!

      I watched a documentary on the lack of criminal prosecution of Wall Street ececs for the sub-prime fiasco. The head govt. official for determining prosecutions was interviewed extensively his arguement for the lack of criminal prosecutions was the uncertainty of conictions and the adequacy of civil remedies. this individual has since left the employ of the govt. and is employed by a "wall street" law firm representing the banks in question. If  in fact the justice dept. has been captured as well it just might make me turn religious as there is obviously no justice in THIS world.
  9. The CDS game is rigged as far a Europe is concerned. My understanding is the the Greece bail out was specificaly structured so as not to trigger the CDS's. It seems to me that if Japan does not default it will only be because they make their currency worthless, I presume Kyle Bass has positioned himself short both the YEN and the JGB.  Central bankers have not been able to repeal the Laws of Physics...yet.

  10. I think the only deterent is making Stevie , Bernie Madoffs roommate for life. The wonderfull thing about securities crimes are the victims are almost completely invisible. Any one who has bought or sold a security has likely paid a little more or received a little less because of Stevie he has almost certainly been on the other side of your trade at some point if you have dealt in the US capital markets in the last 20 years as SAC was responsible for as much as 20% of the volume  on some days... he took some of YOUR money. I am afraid that if Stevie cuts a deal his wealth will wash away his sins just like Mike Milllikens money did.

  11. When the mkt was obviously undervalued  (to me) in the fall of 2008 and the winter of 2009 there was a consensus here that the mkt was cheap, the concern was however that it may or could get cheaper. I see a similar dilemna today the consensus which is by no means universal is that the mkt is not so cheap, the concern however which is correctly expressed is that it may get even less not cheap. This is ALWAYS the dilemna for anyone placing any overall valuation overlay on their portfolio management.

  12. Taken from Zerohedge (so probably slighlt bear biased  )

     

    LOL "slightly bear biased." I am unable to not log onto this site daily. It is a fascinating conglomeration of conspiracy theorists, Libertarians, Gold Bugs, nihilists and anarchists. This is not the glass is half empty crowd this is there is no glass its all an illusion and we are the only folks smart enough to figure it out crowd.  It is a pretty decent book end to this site if you want to see how the other half lives and thinks give it a gander.

  13. I'll add my two cents here. Those holding cash at 50%+ levels just seems like market timing to me. I don't think anybody would make the case that we are in a giant equity bubble here.

     

    Sure there could be a pullback but when did we ever try to predict short term movements. Even Buffett has admitted that with the Fed's liquidity moves, the risk of inflation occurring could be much higher than people expect. To those that are big on cash, what happens if markets continue to move higher and then inflation starts ticking up? You can't just jump back in.

     

    That's my concern, it really looks like Bernanke is trying to monetize the US debt and cash savers could be left holding the bag. Don't get me wrong I have about 16% cash ($US) but it seems holding a huge chunk of cash is market timing and  ownership in strong undervalued companies like (Wells, AIG, BAC, FFH, MKL, BRK.B) will do quite well over time.

     

    Market timing vs margin of safety are basically the same side of the coin. My personal out performance vs the S&P for the last 13 years has to be at least partially the result of finding myself with lots of cash when valuations are rich. This is the first time I find myself aggresively hedged or short but that is because I see the tail risks as being frankly scary as hell. If any one thinks that a Japanese or major European government default is just a small or insignificant risk then I suggest you have your head in the sand. This type of event while not certain is certainly possible, the knock on results of that type of magnitude 10 financial earth quake will make Lehman look like a cake walk. Prem understands the risks so by the way does Warren , Warren just will not talk about it in public.

  14. Great minds think alike or fools seldom differ you choose...  I have sold pretty much all but three core positions most of them fairly recent buys (ABX) being the most recent. I have as much cash as I have ever had and I am about 25% hedged or short the S&P. I am pretty convinced that both Japan and Europe are going to go down hard the Euro can not work I think it will be a political event that puts them over the edge. I listened to Kyle Bass again on Japan sure wish I had given him some dough in Septemeber.  I will likely start buying SEPT put spreads if this mkt goes up much more

  15. Sanjeev, you should be in bed at this time, no? :)

     

    Looks like you are Prasad's babysitter. ;D

    Sanj can not sleep because his beloved Nuks lost the opening game in the play offs. I have never met Sanj but I just know that if I stood in the Costco hot dog line up before the game he would be there. 
  16. Ubuy2wron, I met Mr. Lopehandia and listened to his story. It is a mess of over-lapping claims which you could only sort out with a Chilean mineral claim expert. Here are some questions you might investigate. Who holds title to the Tesoros claims Mr. Lopehandia or Barrick? Has Mr. Lopehandia been the title holder of the Tesoros claims since February 1? Is there prior claims on the same ground subject to a Chilean order since 2001? Who will be the owner of the claims once the issue in that proceeding is determined? Are the prior claims on the same ground acquired by Barrick from Lac Minerals limited to salt or nitrates or do they include the rights to mine gold, silver and copper? Does Mr. Lopehandia own other overlapping claims? Does Barrick? Which take priority?

     

    Mr. Lopehandia appears to be an expert on Chilean mineral claims and comes across as a credible witness. I would not want to have a claims dispute with him. I have no idea myself who owns the claims and which take priority. I was upset that the various competing competing claims and lawsuits were difficult to find or were not disclosed in Barrick's securities filings and the CFAs I deal with at my brokerage didn't know anything about the competing claims either. Read the Der Spiegel article published in December 2012. I wondered how Der Spiegel could publish without being libelous. I was upset because it should not be necessary for investors or trustees to be private investigators. I should be able to rely on the CFAs, company filings and securities regulators.

     

    I suggest you do some due diligence. I placed it in the too hard pile and sold Barrick at $32.

    Thanks for the heads up. I must admit that I am only vaugely aware of this issue. I am going to guess that these legal issues can break either way and they will win some and lose others. I could not invest in any large drug company as an example if I started to try to determine merits of pending court cases.
  17. Moore, I hope this gets your attention. I was arguing pretty agressively a short gold stance and did in fact short both gold and silver at what looked to me to be a blow off top. Well I have switched I now have 10 percent of my portfolio in Barrick Gold which I think is as cheap as it has EVER been in relation to the price of gold and every other asset class I can think of. I am also short the US mkt as hedge against my long positions. This market is making me more nervous daily.

  18. Last time I posted a presentation by Mr. Raoul Pal, someone wrote me back, saying he thought this board was a high quality and a serious one…  :(

    It seems I never learn from experience!  ;D

     

    giofranchi

     

    “As time goes on I get more and more convinced that the right method in investment is to put fairly large sums into enterprises which one thinks one knows something about and in the management of which one thoroughly believes. It is a mistake to think that one limits one’s risk by spreading too much between enterprises about which one knows little and has no reason for special confidence. One’s knowledge and experience is definitely limited and there are seldom more than two or three enterprises at any given time which I personally feel myself entitled to put full confidence.” - John Maynard Keynes

    Well I just ended the week by reading this report I think I will now go home and hang myself. LOL Seriously this guy is a little depressing but then what can one expect from a report that is titled no gets out of here alive. I also have been getting a sense of impending doom but I feel like an incurable optimist compared to this guy.. Have a great weekend  giofranchi. Soon it will be fashion week in Milan when planeloads of young models decend on the streets of Milan and attempt to navigate the cobblestone streets in impossibly high heeled shoes.  I picture you at a sidewalk cafe waiting to offer your assistance to these poor damsels with the twisted ankles.
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