lnofeisone

Sold 60/70 bull verticals on LMND going out to march. Small tracker position.

Pure gamble - OPK 6.5 calendar July31/Aug7th. OPK earnigns are Aug 5th. Looking to short it otherwise.

Wabuffo - I always appreciate your posts. Wanted to give you a heads up on the archaic world that is the IRS data (and more specific Statistics of Income). Ignore if you already know all this. I think the report you are looking at is here: https://www.irs.gov/statistics/soi-tax-stats-corporation-complete-report This is the filtered version that goes to SOI and it's mostly final accounting for exam (audit), adjustments, appeals, tax court. There are few other versions that get published before going to SOI but you have to hunt for them. For example https://www.irs.gov/pub/irs-pdf/p55b.pdf If you want to get even more exotic you can get reports by IRS BOD: Large Business & International, Small Business/Self-Employed, etc. but then you'll have to aggregate by type of return that's filed. Other sources I occasionally use are TIGTA reports, congressional reports, and (my personal favorite due to colorful language frequently used) Office of Taxpayer Advocate.

This wouldn't show up as a wash sale as trades in IRA account aren't reported. It's a loophole for those that can afford to hold a naked call position in non-tax account.

I think this is a little hard to generalize. One thing I’ve noticed is that a lot of young professionals here seem to be going Metro-free. They live not too far away from their offices, walk/bike maybe 15-30 mins to work, and use Uber for everything else. Areas like Logan Circle are/were indeed doing quite well even though there are no conveniently located stations nearby. I would agree that it's hard to generalize. My general rule of thumb was 0.25-mile walk to the metro is ideal, 0.5-mile walk to the metro is OK, anything beyond that better worth it. I totally forgot about biking. It's definitely one of the more serious and widely used modes of transportation, especially amongst young professionals (and old). I'd consider myself on the "older" side of professionals and bike to work anytime it doesn't rain.

When it comes to looking for living arrangements most people prioritize: affordable place, decent neighborhood, minimize their commute to work. Most people I know go out where they live unless it's a big event (hockey/baseball/parade) or they are trying to go to a new restaraunt. Very rarely someone that lives in DC will go to VA or MD to go to a bar or on a date even with the advent of uber (which is much cheaper here than in NYC). I am very guilty of that. DC housing spans DC, VA: Arlington, Crystal City (National Landing ;D), Alexandria, MD: Silver Spring and some other MD cities that I don't know well. The general cost of renting goes up the closer you get to DC. Bus commuting in DC is pretty straight forward, less so once you go to VA/MD. If your job is not near where you live, you will look for a place near a metro. Jobs in DC are consultants, lawyers (which are really legal consultants but they hate being called that ::)), govvies, and political/non-profit. There are very few tech shops here (non-consultant tech firms) and a smorgasbord of other types of jobs but they make a very tiny fraction of jobs. If you want to figure out where someone is going to live, it's best to stratify folks by salaries and age. Loads of new (under)grads join DC area and they tend to live in apartments or row houses that have either been subdivided or they rent as a group. Grads (which tend to be lawyers and mostly in big firms) tend to live by themselves in apartments or they rent houses as a smaller group. This is a consistent trend for younger consultants, lawyers, and polotican/non-profit jobs. When people get older, get families, etc. they tend to move out to MD/VA. Govvies young/old tend to prefer to live in VA/MD just because it's much more affordable. Crack epidemic. In the 90s, you could've bought crack maybe 10-15 blocks away from the WH. Homelessness was a problem but with neighborhoods gentrifying, homeless just get pushed up north. There are still mini-campus north of Union Station (under the bridges). There are few spots where you'll find 10-15 tents one after the other. Today, DC counts about 1% of its population to be homeless. I saw there was a comment on DC being friendly to developers. I would disagree with that. NIMBY is definitely a thing. a) We have a height restriction and lots of old houses. People have been expanding their houses (building them forward and back and pop-ups) to very absurd levels and in some cases have really screwed up the appeal of some areas. https://www.washingtonpost.com/local/is-this-the-ugliest-addition-to-a-row-house-in-dc-and-should-that-matter/2013/08/12/aadf3dba-0363-11e3-a07f-49ddc7417125_story.html. Because of that, building up or out became generally hard (with new laws and regulations) and your neighbors have A LOT of say and ways to stop you. For example, we are adding solar panels to our roof not because it's a good investment but because our neighbors can't build up to block them. b) There is a reason why new condo buildings in DC span the entire block. Developers have to buy out every house or get them to agree to build up. The Wharf you are referring to took 8 years to just get the necessary approvals before they broke ground in 2014. c) There is also a "historic" designation. Getting your neighborhood designated as such will make everyone's life much harder when it comes to building. Capitol Hill is one such area. Bloomingdale, Emerland street are a few others. d) Trying to build in affluent neighborhoods is extra hard. Trying to build in DuPoint, Logan circle, Georgetown something that doesn't fit is nearly impossible. Less of an issue in low-income areas. Living next to waterfront is not that big of a premium. On the west side, we have Potomac and very affluent neighborhoods with single-family homes overseeing the river. On the east side, we have Anacostia which is dirty. Neither has beaches. At best you can walk along the river in Georgetown or Navy Yard/Waterfront. maybe hike in one of the few islands that are parks that are adjacent to DC. I can only speak to DC. Online dating was alive and well pre-covid. Getting around the city on metro/uber is easy and affordable. Otherwise going out in your neighborhood bar will net you a well educated attractive person. Families tend to move out to the burbs but those that want to stay move into neighborhood-like burbs in DC (eastern market, Brookland, north DC). You'll find similar affordable start homes in those areas. I find that VT/UVA/UMD have good representation here but not as dominating as you'd think. I'd say all ACC schools are well covered. My immediate group of friends and coworkers comes from NY/CA and some mid-west. Anywhere east of Anacostia is a no-go for me and I grew up in East New York projects. East DC but west of Anacostia is barely OK with some exceptions spots. West of Union Station is basically as safe as it gets with some funny exceptions.

This is hilarious though a bit outdated given how fast DC has been gentrifying. @BG - is there something specific you are looking for? DC is a very strange city. The first thing that took me a second to process but now acts as my compass is the fact that DC comprises of 4 squares aptly named SW, NW, NE, SE. The center between these 4 quadrants is the Capitol with streets such as East/North/South Capitol St emanating from the Capitol Building. The National Mall acts as a de facto West Capitol St. This is the geographical separation of DC. DC also subdivided into 8 wards. A ward can span multiple quadrants. Most span two quadrants. Ward 6 is the only one that comes to mind that spans 3 (SE, SW, NE). Not an exclusive list but possibly a start below: Ward 1 highlights include Adams Morgan (hipster/young crowd), Columbia Heights (Target and really emerging), Kalorama (Obama has a home here), Howard University, Shaw and U street. Lots to do in terms of food and exploring. Good mix of young crowd and families. Decent metro access. Ward 2 highlights your prototypical DC. DuPont Circle, Foggy Bottom, Georgetown (quaint?), Downtown (Chinatown-light is here) Logan Circle, Penn Quarter. Lots of touristy stuff, food, Government buildings. Definitely an interesting mix of residents. Georgetown - very rich or college students. Logan circle - lots of professionals. Phenomenal metro access. Ward 3 brings you to American University, Chevy Chase, Friendship Heights, Glover Park, Woodley Park, Telnleytown, Observatory cicle. Largely residential (you will find a lot of co-ops with beautiful architecture here) with some great food places and general activities. Great place to walk around and spend the entire day. Basically no metro access. Ward 4 is the northmost ward in the city and home to Brightwood, Crestwood, Fort Totten, Petworth, and Takoma. Definitely improved in the last 5-10 years. Lots of small shops and things to do. I'd say a lot of blue collar or just starting out professionals live here. OK Metro access. Wards 5, 7, and 8 (basically south and east of the city) are predominantly minority wards characterized by below-median salaries, below-median property prices (affordable?), mixed-use land (residential and light industry), and higher than median crime. There are some hidden gems here (in terms of neighborhoods and things to do) but they are still being discovered. For example, Brookland reminds a lot like Forest Hills in Queens. Bus system is generally extensive but the metro access is rather mediocre. If you are lost, missing your phone, and are looking for a heuristic, you want to walk west of here. Ward 6 is probably the most gentrified in the last 5 years. Not the most expensive but definitely getting there. This ward is the home to Mount Vernon, Navy Yard, Eastern Market, NoMa, Southwest Waterfront, and (my personal favorite name) Swampoodle. Plenty to do here in terms of art, music, food. Metro access is great.

It probably helps the railroad side of BRK as now oil out of Bakken will not travel by pipeline. Statistically speaking, it's less safe for ND. The decision isn't really surprising. Trump intervened on behalf of DAPL and the judge called them out on not having an environmental impact statement. There is another pipeline that runs along DAPL (Northern Border) and it's operating just fine. Not really the point the tribes were initially arguing but I think they will take any win.

It wouldn't surprise me if D trades down a bit more. Looks like they sold decent assets cheap and they are cutting the dividend but this is for the D board. I think BRK got them this cheap because they were willing to buy the entire portfolio. There are more natural buyers for the pipelines (e.g., EPD for Questar and TC for Iroquois) but that would require a lot more work/time/regulatory hurdles.

BRK's press release is a good start though I think it could be better written. For example, the press release lists that BRK is buying Questar Pipeline but what I think they meant by it was Questar Pipeline LLC which in turn owns Questar Pipeline (UT-CO), Overthrust Pipeline (WY), and Southern Trails (CA, AZ, NM). The press release also says that the deal doesn't include the acquisition of the Atlantic Coast Pipeline which technically doesn't exist. Short version: D is getting out of mid-west entirely and focusing on retail in midwest and east coast + LNG. BRK is getting regional pipelines in the mountain west and some good assets on the east coast. The most curious part about this is that BRK will be the one operating the Cove Point export terminal. I don't think they have any expertise in the area and are buying it in this transaction. Given where LNG prices are globally, they are probably not paying much premium for the Cove Point. I think once they get comfortable here they can go after LNG (for growth?) or WMB (to complement their assets?). Long version - D's nat gas profile is very fragmented with presence in the mountain west (UT, WY, CO), a little bit of midwest (OH, WV, PA [i realize WV and PA aren't really mid-west but I don't view them as east coast because they aren't on the coast and it will make this example a tad bit easier]), and east coast (SC, NC, NY). These fragments are not connected by D-owned pipeline. I always look at each fragment two types of operations: pipelines & storage and distribution (to retail/industrial customers). Currently, D performs both operations for every fragment. After the deal, it looks like BRK will own: 1) Pipelines & storage and distribution in the mountain west 2) Pipelines & storage in midwest - I think this is the crown jewel of this transaction as pipelines here move more nat gas than all others combined and it sits in a low break-even zone of marcellus/utica basin 3) Pipelines & storage on east coast

It's nice to see that you got to set your own terms for the bankruptcy while everyone else has to play according to the country's laws. Orchard - I think this is a snarky comment but I'm going to assume positive intent here and ask. What part of my statement shows that I set my own terms while everyone else has to play according to country's laws? CEQP has a MRG contract for CHK. There is hardly a contract that's more favorable to CHK (or anyone really) so why would the court reject it?

Added some CEQP preferred. Some highlights of my thinking: 1) CEQP's contracts with CHK were changed in 2017 and I don't think CHK will be able to reject these in Ch11 2) If CEQP fails to pay on the preferred, the preferred rate starts to go up

I used to do that as well. Over the years, we have gone to Costco more as we believe their berries and fruits are generally superior. The steaks are higher quality. Plus you need milk etc for the kiddos. Yeah, meat is very cheap in the US in general. We really do enjoy high quality of living in this country. Reading this thread is making me question our grocery bill/habits but it's a one non-negotiable in the house that's obsessed with healthy food. We straddle: 1) Costco: for meat (fish)/cheese/nuts - hard to beat prices and quality 2) Whole Foods: Granola and more specialized staples - hard to find items that we don't need 10 lb bags of and I have an obsession with mustard 3) Chinese market: Leafy and specialized greens 4) Farmer's Market: Fruits/Vegetables - I grew up outside of the US and fruits/vegetables in box stores are tasteless/bland to me (probably because they are picked before they are due). Also a great way to have meal rotation as fruits/veggies in DC are seasonal.

and from the conference call for Q1: I can't tell from the 10-Q, if the tax benefit they quote is equal to the expected cash refund they expect to receive. It's also unclear if they have factored any tax refunds in their original liquidation estimate of $3-$6 per share (including the common shares of EVFM that have since been distributed to PDLI shareholders). PDLI has 116.3m common shares o/s, IIRC. wabuffo wabuffo - digging through 10Ks/10Qs from 2018-2020, it looks like this is the ballpark of an estimated cash refund they would be eligible to receive from the operational losses they've accumulated and effective tax rate of year's prior (2015-2020). It doesn't look like they included the tax benefit in their estimate however the skeptic in me says I'm missing something somewhere.

Demand will be key. As far as spigots go, I'd say in the US, 10-15% of wells will not come online. Restarting a well after a shut-in (which is a complicated thing to do) requires a lot of expertise and, dare I say, luck. This will be especially challenging for frackers. The other constraint will be the lack of money E&Ps will have access to. I'm watching cashflow and bond/equity issuance (especially of O&G operating in Permian as they are the most profitable and will have first-mover advantage) and so far nothing is pointing to elevation in CAPEX which will translate to lack of new wells and careful rationalization of the existing well portfolio. Ironically, O&G is being forced to cope with discipline and are probably learning for the first time in the long while what profits actually look like ;D.

Thinkorswim side of TD doesn't let $1 put spreads trade >$1. I got lucky and closed out my puts 2 weeks ago. Was looking at put prices today but they are really out of control on HTZ. I'll probably do a $1 calendar 21/22 calendar spread at 0.1.

When our realtor told us this I was genuinely shocked. Turns out south of Union Market has become very trendy. This was the worst. On average where we placed a bid, there were probably 5-8 other bids. We ended up buying a house from an estate that started to renovate (they got through probably 30% of it) to sell but ran out of money. The beneficiaries had a contentious relationship and were not willing to finance the remaining reno. Let's hope that our calculation + margin of safety will be enough.

Pupil - I think DC market needs to be broken down into Anacostia/east of the river vs. main DC vs. MD/VA burbs. These are distinct markets with very unique characteristics. In main DC the layers tend to be 650K-850K, 850K-1.2M, 1.2M + (Georgetown and NW). 650K-850K the liquidity depends on where the property is and how much work is involved. In the 850K-1.2M range, anecdotally, we've heard 850K houses getting 5+ competitive bids, with escalators over asking, waiving contingencies as of 2 weeks ago (east side of H Street corridor - Emerald district). That's a sharp drop from what it was pre-covid but still amazing to me. When we were house hunting, the worst we've had was us being 1 of 17 bids and we were #16 despite the escalators of +10% over asking (we didn't waive contingencies). We had friends report nearly identical bidding on the lower end of the spectrum of the 850K-1.2M (eastern market/stadium armory area) when a basement with a certificate of occupancy is involved. Things markedly slow down at 1M+ range and appear to come to halt at 1.2M+. There is also an open house not far from where we live and there is a line of people outside. Market in DC seems to be resistant to COVID and economic issues.

That's damn impressive engineering undertaking. If I remember correctly, the longest high voltage line is about 2k km.

I saw the same trend here in DC. Lots of availability in the high-end market. Few of our friends are now playing hardball with management companies because they are not getting amenities that were originally promised. Mid-market seems to be doing a bit better. Had friends rent a basement in about a week with plenty of qualified applicants.

You read my mind. I, too, would be interested if anybody has thoughts on a good hedge. ASPS?

+1 and will definitely take you up on the beers in DC (Big Board seems appropriate. "As co-owner Eric Flannery explains, the fluctuating beer prices come from a special algorithm which “changes depending on how many people are here, what day of the week it is, what type of beers are being ordered.” But the bottom line, he says, “is the more type of beer that somebody orders, the lower the price goes.”)

Yes, PGR is a LT winner. They have increased their revenue growth going into property insurance (they used to do only car) and it’s not clear if they have the same advantage there. It’s trading a bit above its LT valuation baseline. I would buy it if I can get it below 1x EV/ sales. PGR doesn't write its own property. They offload it to the likes of Homesite and First American. This is the reason for their wildly inconsistent policies and pricing across the markets, interesting complaint rates patterns, and varying agent experiences. They are very strong when it comes to auto/motorcycles though I'm not a buyer at these valuations. On a personal note, we switched from Progressive to Erie (home/auto/umbrella) because the quote was about the same but Erie's coverage was substantially better.

I'm selling bear call spreads going out to Jan 21 with bottom leg anchored at 10. E.g., 10/16.5 today is selling at $5.10 so lose 1.40 to get $5.10 and you only need 25% decline to break even.

Don't we compare vacuum tubes to transistor when we look at progress in computing over time? We certainly put them on the timeline to see computations per dollar spent but I've never seen them compared (Maybe if I search EE papers circa 20s-50s.). It's hard to compare the two due to technological discontinuity. That's the primary reason why Moore's law (rule of thumb) starts with the invention of a transistor. I'd argue going from Alexnet to ResNet-type of architectures is a similar discontinuity.