lnofeisone

We only get something like 20M barrels of oil from Russia a year (which is about 1 day worth of consumption for us) - funny ramification of Jones Act. So this would be a very tiny amount and amounts to a symbolic gesture unless bigger players around the world will also start refusing oil deliveries due to financial sanctions/ being concerned that they would inadvertently end up on the sanctions list.

Sold half of my SRG calls (2.5x gain). The rest is on the house.

STNE, FB, SHOP, ATUS - half positions.

VET. Like CVE, they are deleveraging (with capital return plans once debt targets are achieved) and their financials are getting better, as long as oil stays high. VET just upped its European gas production by 50% (upping their share of Corrib gas field). For the foreseeable future, they are printing $ on their European exposure.

Bought UNG puts. Back to shorting it for a bit.

Found this somewhat interesting. ET reported their quarterly results (I'm long and underwater). Good quarter. It looks like E&P are prioritizing debt reduction, share buyback, dividend (CVE, VET, etc.) and pipelines (ET, EPD) are prioritizing distribution, debt reduction and buyback. I realize that these two aren't exactly comparable but fascinating divergence in strategies for FCF.

Sold 15 2024 SHLX puts on Friday. The floor here is $12.89 and puts are trading at 3.5. I think it will take way less time than 2 years to get this closed out with Shell's 72% ownership. There is also a potential that the bid will be increased - say if it goes the way TOO/Brookfield saga played out (28% increase in a bid). I not too optimistic on the latter scenario and see this just closing out similar to Enbridge roll up. Thanks @thepupil for flagging this one.

Couldn't help myself and bought more CVE-WS.

Fascinating rotation. PYPL, FB, and growth in general, is getting destroyed but market is up.

It's been a hot second since I was excited for energy earnings. Sitting on my CVE warrants at 5% of the portfolio.

I sold WMB close enough to 30 a while back. WMB and KNOP are my two panic-buys that seem to always work out.

Bought SNC, ABNB, LSXMK starters, CVE/WS now 5% of portfolio, KWEB calls (half a position).

Anything over 35 on VIX is a signal to core positions. Anything over 50 is my signal to buy new stuff for long term.

closed out my UNG short and put it into CVE/WS (now 3% of my portfolio), COST, V

DIS starter.

I agree Tencent and they also own a chunk of Epic (whose Unreal engine is used for game creation, e.g., Fortnite). If you want mobile, Unity is a way to play it.

This is a fairly comprehensive report - https://www.nsinursingsolutions.com/Documents/Library/NSI_National_Health_Care_Retention_Report.pdf with some general stats pulled out here - https://njsna.org/the-cost-of-nurse-turnover/ I also recall seeing somewhere that average revenue/nurse (lots of caveats here such as NP vs. RN, type of nurse, geography, practice etc.) is ~200k. So figure 40k turnover+30k bonus + 100k salary + hospital overhead + extra pay -> hospitals are probably breaking even now but things aren't great for P/L. Also bought more CVE warrants.

Added CVE/W and bought starter C (sold remainder WFC).

CVE/WS and bought bear spreads on UNG (1/3 position).

SD - thanks for this timely reminder. This is how OXY and its warrant traded a year ago or so. Easy to sell OTM calls to collect elevated premium until warrant becomes more popular.

I realize it's unrelated but curious. S corps aren't allowed to retain earnings so where does the rest go? IRS pursues these transactions with purpose and vengeance, going after promoters, lawyers, and accountants. Microcaptive insurance was a thing, until it stopped being a thing. IRS is also about to get a lot of money to close the tax gap and I'd hate to be on the receiving end of that document request.

Bought starters in KIND and XBI.

I can definitely buy the argument that ecological costs of O&G are just as high or higher than nuclear accidents and the nuclear is a cheaper and cleaner form of energy. But you are dealing with people who are looking at things and nuclear disasters are a terrible PR.

I am generally neutral on nuclear. I realize it will need to be in the energy portfolio but a lot more work needs to be done to make it safer than it already is. To understand nuclear and nuclear hesitation you have to look at every phase. If you look at lifetime nuclear (which is how a country should look at it) though investor's lens, it's not great. 1) Construction - just about every nuclear plant requires years (decades) of paperwork to break ground, always runs behind schedule, and always above budget. Vogtle is just the most recent example in a line of many. 2) Operations - probably the sweet spot. Raw material-wise it costs something like $0.1 for MWh to generate nuclear. Obviously not the $0 for wind or solar but close and you get the reliability bonus. The remaining cost for MWh comes from all the necessary things to operate plants safely and add $40 or so per MWh. This assumes that no mistake will happen and I think that's the wrong assumption. Mistakes happen everywhere and nuclear is not immune from it and mistakes with nuclear can cost close to $200B (that was the cost for Fukushima clean up). 3) Waste disposal - this is very costly and near perpetual. 1/3 of DOE budget is subsumed on a clean up in the state of Washington (Hanford site - great history here). Hanford site is expected to cost between $300-600B. Yuca mountain's cost is around $100B. So if focusing on 2, yeah, Germany's decision is a strange one but if focusing on 1-3, Germany is removing a lot of future risks and liabilities with cost being energy independences and elevated energy prices.

~80% in the taxable helped massively by energy names going up 100-300% (CEQP, AR, MPC, SWN, CLMT), WFC, and ETH (which I'm starting to unload and I own a rig). Late UNG short helped. At some point I was about 40% energy in taxable which was terrifying so I started selling a bit too early and left a lot on the table. Biggest laggards are ET and AVLR (still long both). Some detractions were busted plays (missed timing by a month) on LMND and PTON as I put decent amount into both of those bets. Retirement account underperformed S&P. Sitting on a 80/20 equity bond mix. Up about 38% across both. We also finished renovation at our primary residence and our neighborhood in DC exploded (maybe this another positive sigh for FRPH as we are few blocks south of Bryant St?). We got an unsolicited bid ~45% higher than what we paid 2 years ago (20% if you take into account reno that we put in) which is inline with that houses on our street are selling for. I had a rough year last year, underperforming S&P, being up only about 10% or so. Still trying to figure out 2022 but been nibbling at some defense, tobacco, chemicals, banks, and pot. Weird and eclectic mix.