lnofeisone

@no_free_lunch I subscribe to the idea that Russia should be out of Ukraine and it is starting to look like Putin is looking for de-escalation. I can also appreciate Russia's historical claim but there are non-military options to resolve this. What I don't believe is that this will be settled to pre-2022 borders. I think the reality on the ground is somewhere in-between of what western media and Russian media portray. As far as oil and its price, I don't think it will collapse anytime soon. Russian oil is now being blended with other oil (51 non-Russian/49Russian) and it's now magically a non-Russian oil. Even Shell is doing it. So money is still being made. Going through the summer is going to be tough but winter for Europe is likely to be brutal without Russian energy.

There was another video on Telegram where a blogger was embedded with a column that got wiped out crossing the bridge and the blogger was furious. In other news Azov battalion that held Azovstal is now surrendering. Rumor in russian channels is that all injured will go to Russia first and then be exchanged for russian POWs. The remainder of the defenders will be taken as POWs by Russia. I am also starting to think that this is now a precursor to potential de-escalation. Russia keeps what it got and Ukraine is largely in tact. Unclear what that means for the remaining geopolitics, oil, etc.

I'll preface this with, I bought ETH (along with few others) few years back and sold and haven't purchased any crypto since. I have a mining rig and convert excess of our solar energy because it's hella more profitable than net metering as long as ETH stays above $900. I think the ability to return stuff incentivizes the seller to provide quality product. Similarly, it gives the buyer a protection. Buyers don't always know how to test what they buying is quality and nor should they. An irreversible smart contract basically breaks that. I played with Solidity and smart contracts at work just to see how it all fits. My focus was on developing automated methods to test potential use cases that can break the contract, i.e., exception cases and bugs. I'm open to changing my mind but what I found was that it's great for small, very concrete, basic use cases. You get to "real" contracts, it becomes cumbersome and unwieldy. Honestly, it reminded me of a flatbed scanner I bought when I started college. I thought it would be cool to scan my notes and save them (that lasted about a month). I had people stop by and scan random stuff, until our library upgraded their printing machines with scanning (that would email you your file) that was embedded. Maybe that's what CBDC going to end up being. I can see a global DC that pairs with individual country CBDCs. I appreciate the fact that there are countries where central bank and gov't is not trusted. I came from one such country that was experiencing hyperinflation in the 90s. Dollar was king. I get that some people won't have the luxury of buying a dollar and have to resort to buying cryptocurrency to export their savings at a price of insane volatility. As far as automation, I haven't seen blockchain automate anything that UIPath or any other RPA vendor can't. I also haven't seen any real creative destruction. Just more people that previously didn't know how to write a macro can now drag and drop stuff and "automate."

https://www.currentaffairs.org/2022/05/why-this-computer-scientist-says-all-cryptocurrency-should-die-in-a-fire Interest read for sure and provides counter balance to all the crypto bulls.

Vertex reported today. Crazy numbers. Stock is hitting 52 week high. Quote from their PR to signify what Shell basically gave away: "During our first 30 days of operation, the refinery generated strong EBITDA, all of which came from conventional fuels production," continued Cowart. "Putting the significance of this performance in perspective, we currently anticipate Vertex will generate enough net profit to have paid for the Mobile refinery and related logistics assets in less than one full quarter of operations."

Added to STNE, NU. Overweight in VET but adding more.

And this is with China being in the lockdown and we are currently in the shoulder season. Diesel market is going absolute bonkers. Here is another article (I don't find it particularly well researched) that points to electricity shortages in the US. https://www.wsj.com/articles/electricity-shortage-warnings-grow-across-u-s-11652002380

Added to MEGEF and sold some MSGE 75 puts.

Hi all - a bit off topic but I am curious. I'm interested in the roof space of a storage facility (big box, publicly traded) with intent to build (put solar panels). I can't just go to the facility and ask for the roof rent as not on the menu. I feel like cold calling or emailing corporate office probably won't work. I've had a bit of success with personal relationships (e.g., someone bought a house and leased me their roof). I'm curious if anyone has suggestions or experience approaching these big box storage facilities. Feel free to message and I can give a bit more details. Thanks!

I definitely think you'll improve your chances of getting into a private school but the downside is elimination of getting into a good state school at reasonable cost. Penn State >> WVU in just about every meaningful way.

MEGEF - you have oil (and oil related products). You sell oil at existing prices. No hedges. You pay down debt and buy back shares when you hit debt milestones. Maybe a dividend. 30% FCF/EV ratio. VET - you have gas and some oil all over the world. A lot of it in Europe. You sell gas and oil at really good hedged prices. Good prices, not great prices. You pay down debt and buy back shares when you hit debt milestones. Maybe an increased dividend. 35% FCF/EV ratio.

Awesome trade. Well done!

@aws ET reports on the 4th so I expect IV to collapse. My guess it will be enough to to have ET called away.

Correct. I should have mentioned that as it may impact some on the board. Otherwise, if ET gets called away before the distribution ex-date, the K-1 is largely meaningless.

Quick "cash substitute idea" - buy ET at $11.40 this AM and sell 2024 10 calls at $2. ET is going ex-div on May 6th so odds are your shares will be called. You'll get 5% for holding this thing for about a week.

Strong earnings are coming from most O&G (not RRC that is hedged so low). CVE just tripped its dividend on top of a massive quarter (and that included a huge hedge loss). VET has additional strength coming from Russia acting belligerent and stopping gas flows to EU now. @Castanza - O&G makes me nervous too. I want to say that this time is different as there is discipline in the sector (debt reduction across the board) and OPEC isn't flooding the markets but I'm reading all I can for any signs of exuberance.

I'm in the same boat as gfp. I am getting adds from select blinds and hotels.com. From AdSense's TOS: Why this ad? This ad is based on: The time of day or your general location (like your country or city) Your visit to the advertiser's website or app Products often shown together Websites you've visited So it could just be your neighbors...

Added VET, CVE warrants, MSGE, and CLPR.

Welcome to the party...I added another slug of Dec 17.5 and 30 calls.

added to NOV and THNPY.

Hilarious. My only contribution here is that if you are a resident of DC, all municipal bonds (any state) are tax free for you. Obviously, not enough to juice returns to 10% but when there are massive dislocations (as Spek and Greg called out), it can be a consideration.

The plumbing on this one is interesting. Few things to keep track of: 1) The main rate resets happen May 1st and Nov 1st. (every 6 months). 2) When you buy iBonds for the first time, you are given the current rate. Your rate will reset every 6 months. So if you buy in April 2022, you will get the rate that was set on Nov 1st of 2021. Your bond rate will reset on Oct 1st, 2022 to the rate that was set up on May 1st of 2022. If you buy the ibond in May 2022, you get May 2022 rate and the next rate will be reset to Nov 1st rate (this isn't very advantageous if you think inflation is gonna tick down). This is why it's advantageous to buy this bond in April because you get the current 7.xx rate for 6 months until Oct 2022 and you will get the next 9.xx rate until Apr 2023. 3) Treasury credits you interest for the entire month when you made the purchase. So if you buy ibonds today, Treasury looks at it as if you bought it on Apr 1st. This is done so that the rate resets are easy to calculate. 4) The composite interest consists of fixed and floating rates. Fixed has been set at 0 for a while. There are some ibonds out there (circa early 2000s, and 1990s) that have fixed rate of 1-3% and are now getting additional 7.xx% in floating rate for a total yield of 10+%.

Found this mildly entertaining (Russian embassy in DC) and of course the musical version of it

https://www.rferl.org/a/ukraine-marines-surrender-russia-mariupol/31801246.html Unconfirmed but not denied either. I've also read several unconfirmed reports that Russia has started using precision missiles and small special ops against various targets such as ammo depots, underground command centers, and airfields. I think Russia is adjusting on the battlefield and in the info sphere.

I could never understand Navalny. I've watched his evolution for the last 15 years or so (my mom is a huge supporter all the way from Brighton Beach), including a video of him alluding that people from Asian (bordering Russia) countries are cockroaches and should be shot (and then he recommends a pistol). It seems that he shared many positions with Putin and only in the last 5-10 years started to diverge, taking anti-Putin positions (e.g., being pro gray marriage). He never denounced his previous positions so feels like DIS where he perpetually pisses off both sides and nobody trusts him. My personal view is that he is a populist and will say anything to stay relevant. His strongest points are that 1) he isn't Putin and 2) he's pissed off Putin so odds are he is doing something right. Neither are enough to convince me that he is a good guy.