lnofeisone

So this is what I'm really trying to understand. Will Germany and any other non-eastern European country allow for new infrastructure to be built to support this? Seems like the only new infra that's being built is the LNG terminals. They will also be taking down 12% of total capacity down for 6 months or so.

I'm still trying to digest this move by Germany. For example, Schewdt is directly connected to Russian "Friendship" pipeline and configured for that oil. How is Germany expecting to operate these assets and get oil from Russia? Separately, I think, European energy companies are now put on notice. Pull back in production and risk being nationalized. I think most will comply and produce at least what they are producing now and pay the solidarity tax.

I currently share this opinion as well. I think Europe is ready for an average winter. I don't think they'll get to 100% of their storage capacity but it will be offset by decline in use by the industrial base. The part that will be most painful is going to the price shocks but far from economic collapse.

@Spekulatius - there are now predictions of 3rd year of Le Nina which is rare. Le Nina mostly impacts the US, Asia/Australia and to a lesser degree Europe. When it does impact Europe, more often than not it hits it with cold weather. So basically, cold all around. https://apnews.com/article/un-weather-la-nina-predictions-d81072d4b78112256e9807ba4178ae1c

Half position in VRRM and some Mar 25 VET calls.

Even if the war stops tomorrow, I can't see Putin/Europe normalize relationships so fast that sanctions are lifted and gas flow is restored. It will take time. Weeks, months, maybe? As far as the weather, just about the whole planet is expected to have a cold winter. You only need cold weather in Europe or Asia and gas prices will stay high. It makes 0 difference if US and Canadian E&Ps drill more. There is no LNG capacity to be had anywhere. Maybe once Freeport goes back online and then Europe gets roughly 2.5% of their LNG fill. Unfortunately, Europe is staring at a real crisis here. I'm hoping politicians use the real crisis as a shield to allow for somewhat more market-friendly policies (e.g., let Gronnigen field in Netherlands produce through 2030) at least until other energy alternatives are figured out.

I think my glimmer of hope will be when the labor market takes a dive and stay there for a short bit. Currently, the market is still extremely strong. We've had few folks hired away just few weeks ago and these individuals had numerous performance issues with us. My firm has 2 large office (20+ floor) buildings in the DC region. One is known as the densest office for our firm in the world. They are both employee-light - maybe 20% of what it used to be. My teams go in 1x every 2 weeks and I think they will just leave if I ask for more. Still early, IMO.

I got Dec 25s@$5.70 and currently in process of getting Mar 25s. I got few Mar 25s @$6.90 but lowered the price a bit.

Reloaded on some VET calls. Love how it trades with oil news but it's a nat gas company.

Thanks for the names. I'll look into them. Any stories here?

Can you share any names in the E&P space? I spent a little time looking at the names but shelved it as I'm too heavy in energy as is. Few that I was looking at were EnBW in Germany and CEZ in Czech republic and Mol Magyar in Hungary. My thinking Eastern European cos are probably better from regulatory perspective (though VET is already doing some of this) but haven't fully developed my thinking here.

Without disclosing the company, there are now efforts underway to incorporate image processing into pricing algorithms. Things like fixer-uppers, remodeled kitchen, etc. are now being detected with fairly consistent accuracy and recall. You can even get reasonably good numbers guessing what brand cabinetry the house has (Wellborn vs. Ikea, for example). Obviously, things like mold and termites are still detected by physical inspection only.

Sold about 25% of my VET exposure. It is still around 20% of my total portfolio.

Added to MSGE and CASH.

This was me riding out CVE warrants when CVE went to 24 and back down to 16. $8 in foregone gains. Should've paid the taxes .

Picked up STNE, JOE with VET proceeds.

Selling some/most of my VET Sept 15/22.5 verticals. Hoping for a dip to reload with later expirty.

Surprised nobody said flat out no. I got a late start in investing due to working for a start-up that went belly up and then going to grad school for 5 years. While we certainly beat the average assets/401k/income size by age that you will see in publications, but our asset income||expenses would be horribly mismatched. We have 1 child whose day care pulls down $36k/year with another one likely in a year. Can't wait for private school bills because DC life is so expensive and our schools are, on average, absolute garbage. Can't really move because of where I work. So I'll be working for a while - at least 10-15 years - unless I hit something like UAN trade that @RichardGibbons uncovered. The big reprieve for me is that the firm I work for has an insanely generous retirement defined annual benefit of average of 3 highest earning years. This benefit gets activated once you reach a certain level and stay at that level for at least 10 years. Then have to make it to 62. As far as market investments, I generally track to slightly underperform averages with occasional big years that more than make up for it. This year it's VET/CVE but I also have a bunch of losers (e.g., weed...maybe I should buy some product and help the companies). Last year I was also heavy energy (something like 40%) and crypto and those holdings went bonkers. If I pay off the mortgage and go 3% withdrawal for the remaining assets it will cover our most basic needs. I'll probably have to keep my teaching gig (or my wife keeps working) to keep the health insurance going because it is that expensive in the US.

Spek - thanks for observation. I think your brother is right about Germany being able to get through this winter with the assumption that Russia maintains its current gas flow. Poland will also have the Baltic Pipe from Norway so they are covered and can probably spare gas. I suspect NG will stay elevated because there are still shortages for the entire EU but I don't have a crystal ball. This article is particularly handy to see where all of Europe stands for their NG needs and storage. https://www.intellinews.com/how-many-days-of-gas-consumption-are-in-europe-s-storage-tanks-250065/

Got JOE put on me. In at 50 (-the put premium).

come join the VET party

@RedLion - this is awesome to see the theory combine with practice like that. My only suggestion is to roll your trades on the Friday of expiry around 3PM or so. This way you pay 0 for time value when you close a leg(so theta = 0). Rolling strike prices higher makes sense, as long as you are at least 1 or 2 strikes away so you get paid more for volatility. Just my 2 cents and have I have no money in this trade :).

So for 2 you would do just the call diagonal. You may need to play around with good strike prices. 3) ATM will give you lowest IV premium. If you go up a bit to OTM, you'll collect a bit more premium for generally same risk profile, especially on weeklys. 4) Doing index vs. individual companies has pros and cons. Index - you won't get the risk of being acquired but there is no earnings premium on indices. With index, you have to track overall volatility probably via VIX and put on your position when VIX is low and sell weeklys when VIX is high. Economic calendar will be your friend. Companies - you have a risk of being acquired but you can collect fat premiums around earnings and have volatility crush further boost your return profile.

This is super neat and I love this academic exercise with real world $$$ attached to it. This looks like a double diagonal spread but the way you structured your trade your strike prices will result in a bit of overlap causing it look like a busted up single diagonal. I think if you do the calculations you'll be mostly gamma neutral (long on long call/long put and short on short call/short put) but you are long vega (volatility). Few general comments: 1) I would put on this position when the stock trades with HV > IV. So right after earnings when all the volatility comes down. You are basically betting that weeklys will worth more as you are approaching earnings. 2) The position you built is leaning bullish so you will probably be better off having just one diagonal (call side) and just keep rolling up or down but I am super curious how this plays out. 3) When you sell ATM options, you are taking lowest IV value (assuming it fits the volatility smile) so you may modify your trade to get paid a bit more for essentially same risk profile. 4) You are spot on with big moves. Pick a big co that's unlikely to be acquired (e.g., Google) and you can mitigate this risk.

I bought a starter in META. to force myself to do work. Added a bit to DIS, FRPH. Bought back Aug and Sep 22.5 VET puts. VET is still 20% of portfolio.