Myth465
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Posts posted by Myth465
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Manitok announced very good results inmo. Currently down quite a bit but I still really like the company.
Will review Manitok and PWE over the weekend.
http://www.manitokenergy.com/files/file/manitok-corporate-presentation-2014-11-12-v005-final.pdf
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More buyers in the US.
US capital likes US securities.
I have followed oil and gas for 4 years, and didnt realize how cheap Canada was.
You can get securities for 2-4x cf in Canada with debt to cash flow less than 1.5 times.
You can get yields of 6% which are sustainable.
Good market.
US investors were just coming back and now we have almost a repeat of 2008 from a decline perspective in O&G.
Good time to buy, if you werent already overweight... I was a bit overweight...
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I would probably buy Legacy Oil and Gas.
Was a top pick on Market call. At less than 3 x cash flow.
Plus no other issues now that it is delevered. It will recover quicker than LTS, PWE, and Manitok which all have a few fleas.
At this point everything is cheap in the sector...,
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How many of you still have significant weighting in this sector?
i've been trying to move away from resource stocks (a fondness for which is a weakness of mine), but i hold probably more than i should now and will be buying more if prices stay down long enough for me to accumulate cash.
We have the same problem, was wondering if I was the only one.
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IM in fully.
Added to PWE.
Think we will see a good asset sell soon, its tough, but the fundamentals for the sector are quite good.
My only fear is options. Down to 2016. I have 20% of my port in MEI and am quite comfortable despite the setbacks.
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Aw first world problems....
I just cant find the right meme for this one.
You are doing pretty well if you are pondering this question in the morning while drinking coffee in the morning.
(I am included, I was trying to work out the answer when I read the question for a while then thought about how unnatural it is for most of the world).
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I always like watching you argue this point.
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I have always liked Ritholtz.
Listened to the Gundlach one. Its very entertaining.
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Hmm. Warren Buffett vs Palantir. Thats a tough one.
-CM
That is a funny but cheap shot.
Funny though. ;D
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I dont know. Mr Market is funny.
Could see up to 10% or 2%. I think they are getting all the bad news out, and are killing it operationally. Lots to love in that report, but the details get lost with news like this.
Oil companies tend to trade on cash flow metrics. Personally the numbers dont matter much. The issue is PWE will be in the dog house for 4 quarters longer. Canada is filled with great ideas. The leaps give you good leverage on a turn, but why bother is what most analyst will say. I cant blame them, they cant recommend the idea with leaps and its not so attractive without them.
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Penn West Announces Management-Initiated Internal Review of Accounting Practices and Decision to Restate Certain Historical Financial Statements
Jul 29, 2014
No impact on previously disclosed cash and debt balances
Penn West anticipates possible delay in reporting second quarter financial results
http://pennwest.mediaroom.com/index.php?s=27585&item=135220
Not good.
Would have preferred a billion dollar plus asset sale, but you dont always get what you want. Operationally the results were excellent. I think this is largely noise, but wise they put a bit more color behind it. The release is quite vague and Mr. Market will run with it inmo.
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MLP/REIT/YieldCo madness is going to be looked back fondly by bankers for many a year.
+1
Made good money in ROIC (4 x or so) and hoping to do ok in Extendicare, but imno this pay is over done.
These assets dont deserve a 20x yield...
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Not at the party. I'm just now dealing with the noise from a few houses down versus calling the cops. Teenagers will be teenagers, and I just need to let it run its natural course - I just hope it's not from an overdose that lands them in the hospital, rather just a slight hangover.
Be honest - You are the old guy yelling get off my lawn, back in my day .....
JK. I remember our posts back in 2010 / 2011. Amazing we still are at this point. Also really good point on everyone wanted a pullback.
I watch BNN Market Call and I hear it in every other call.
People are hyper aware of 2008-2009 and looking for the next fall.
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I decided that Walmart is a bubble stock.
It's at 15x earnings and those earnings are inflated by government welfare programs. Essentially, they pay less than a living wage, then the government buys food for their employees "the working poor", and the Walmart shareholders pocket the difference.
Not sure when that market distortion is going to end. It would take a big political change to get the federal minimum wage raised up to the "living wage" level. That would be the level at which Walmart would be feeding and clothing their own workers, rather than having the government essentially make payroll for them.
But I dunno... those kinds of obvious bubbles can go on for a long time.
I was reading this on my phone, and thought it was a very asute analogy.
Was really wondering who posted it, now it all makes sense. ....
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I sincerely feel bad for him. Something has to be off with his thought process to go this long fighting one of the greatest bull markets in history. Markets just are not that inefficient to be wrong for this long. And his obsession with pinning everything on the Fed is bizarre!! The ECB balance sheet has contracted significantly yet the European market has done fantastic. The BOJ balance sheet has exploded, and the market hasn't budged in a year.
Bottom line - he needs help. I was a bear, and I sought help and figured it out. I wish he would do the same.
Welcome to the party, its been fun.
I am still having a good time but drinking a bit more water to reduce the hangover in the morning.
All hell has broken loose, you were our perma bear* . Not sure what to do now.
@ Stahleyp - I am positioning my AUS retirement account to be mostly cash. I think the US and Canada will be fine (minor pullbacks).
I think AUS is due for a rough patch. 20 years of no recession has to end at some point.
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Hussman will be right* one day. Hell anyone who is bearish 100% of the time is eventually right...
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Humm what makes you say that.
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Eric Nuttal on Market Call.
He is inmo the top O&G Analyst in Canada.
Up 45% YTD.
I own PWE and Manitok and keep kicking the tires around Lightstream. 3 Names he hates....
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I copy everyone.
Basically check every VIC idea and have about 6 value investors blogs I follow, plus read most ideas on the board.
Also read seeking alpha.
Difference is I give no importance to who post the idea. Half the time I dont know much about the author.
I read the thesis and it basically chooses me. I am drawn to some ideas. I usually need cash flow or assets with a catalyst for the turn.
I seem to like oil and gas / cyclical plays.
Lately I have copied the hell out of IA Michael at ABC Funds.
So much so that if I hung things up I would put a big chunk in his fund. His results arent the greatest, but I love the way he thinks about ideas.
I think he has had a few bad runs, but is well positioned for upside. I just bought Bri Chem....
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I would say general correction, everything in the patch is down...
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Bought HLC.to today, it's a fairly small position. Thanks for the idea Myth! Myth lays out the thesis in the more recent section of the clarke page.
No prob. I will likely buy more overtime as the thesis is confirmed. Right now its 10% of my portfolio.
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The COO left to start Panterra.
Which is buying assets in the foothills.....
My guess is its a disagreement and the COO wanted to be the CEO and found it easier to leave and do his own thing.
He is buying acreage in the same place.
His leaving has caused Manitok to be undervalued and hated by the street for a year. Not surprising the CEO is a bit bitter.
It looks like he took alot of the team. Basically poached Manitok. He is buying similar acreage so the assets are fine inmo.
http://www.panterraresource.com/management.html
https://www.google.com/finance?q=CVE%3APRC&hl=en&ei=dvOxU6DsEKmjiQKc2IDgDg
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There is a link to the audio recording from the Manitok annual meeting.
I really like this management team, will be selling some Clarke to buy more.
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This reminds me of Clarke. The CEO here is so articulate. He knows exactly why they are cheap. No natural Foothills buyer because few others are in the play, and no set of inventory like most other Canadian stocks. Instead of complaining about it, they buy into Entrice to get natural repeatable inventory, expand in the foothills, and buy back a ton of stock. I really like thier plan and they are spending much more then I could buying back stock and insiders buying shares. Will be interesting to see what Entrice results are like.
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Monitok is now my largest holding.
They have a gas well that they own 70% of which is throwing off 2000 BOE.
I like the CEO, like the buybacks, like the strategy.
I think the Foothills is quite complex Geology. They have found some amazing acre with the Stolberg play.
It has allowed them to grow quite quickly but its running out.
I think they are very shrewd. Sold shares at $3 or so, buy back 10% of float at 2 or so.
Also buy something easy, simple, with lots of run room. Buy something that is predictable and repeatable.
I think they may have found that with Entrice. Once its up and running the street will revalue them at 4-5x CF, vs. the 2.5x CF.
After that happens they will continue to expand the acreage positions and asset base.
In the meantime they can do what they really enjoy - Play in the foothills area.
They can take some of the capex, use it to explore, and will likely find many more Stolbergs.
Dry wells and what not will not effect their valuation because they will have the predictability of the Long Run and Entrice farm in / freehold lease.
I like it and will go along for the ride.
Keep in mind that the CEO significantly increased his ownership in the company.
He just used the companies cash to shrink the share count and asset base by 10%.
I agree with Trapeze that this is worth $6 or more by end of next year.
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I have just bought Manitok and Iona. Both are quite cheap.
Canadian oil patch for sale!
in General Discussion
Posted
Its a strange situation.
The Juniors have been massacred, the majors killed.
Great value and once in 3-4 years ops, but most are sitting down 50%.
I was fairly overwieght oil. I have sold service companies which were down 10%.
Now I can buy more Manitok or wait.
I think the shares I have will recover, but you can make real money buying today.
Entrice is looking great, they may produce more from it in 2 years than Stolberg. Stolberg is back on line.
I will listen to the call and think about it over the weekend.
They have upside in Stolberg, and tremendous running room in Entrice. They can even pick up the other acreage from PS / Encana Spin CO.
Lots of good options and good hedges and 50 / 50 nat gas production to help with the dip in oil.
The real question is - is it a dip?
Interesting. times....