DooDiligence

That gives a value under $20 & if that happened, I'd load up. That said; if it drops to the low to mid $40's I'll add more (I'm also shopping for a sword, pike & bow right now as the Zombie apocalypse seems imminent...)

All statements & figures (rounded) are from the RGR 2015 10K unless otherwise stated. Actual firearms are their primary product with over 90% of manufacturing being done in the USA as well as 95% of revenues. Uses investment casting & metal injection molding (MIM) & could improve margins & response times with the introduction of CAD & CNC. No union employees & performance based compensation accounts for at least 15% of wages which allows for quick adjustments in payroll in the event of slow downs (10% of labor is temp.) Transferred defined benefit pension to 401K in 2014 with a $40.9m income charge & $7.5m cash outlay to fully fund the new program with no future obligation other than discretionary matching which they've been consistently doing at around $4m to $5m per year since 2014. Sales are through distributors with 4 accounting for the majority of sales (Davidson's 18%, Lipsey's, 17%, Sports South 13% & Jerry's/Ellett Bros 12%) & management believes that the loss of any distributor would not affect long term sales (maybe a slight short term decrease as a new distributor picks up the business.) Bad receivables & advertising expenses are minimal. R & D has been less than 1% of revenues for quite some time (they expense instead of capitalizing.) Properties include a total of 915,000 sq ft (most of which is manufacturing & warehousing) with 275,000 leased & the rest owned (no major lease obligations or purchase agreements.) They use LIFO with around a $43.5m reserve (Q3 2016 10Q) & I admit to not fully understanding the implications of LIFO over FIFO (other than it seems like it could be used to game EPS.) Is LIFO just a numbers game or do they actually have $43.5m worth of old guns laying around in cosmoline? The company is very agile with CAPEX as the business environment changes. They accelerated depreciation slightly in 2013 by changing the useful life of machinery & equipment from 10 years to 7. The company uses sell through estimates & inventory levels from distributors to plan production levels & has no access to retailer figures. They also monitor units sold to distributors vs NICS background checks (adjusted for renewals) to anticipate production needs (I find the corrolaries a bit lumpy & would appreciate if anyone would look at this & make better sense of it than I can.) They appear to be very disciplined with buybacks & the dividend varies as a % of earnings from 20% to 60% with an average 49% payout. Risks are obvious & include potential changes to the Protection of Lawful Commerce in Arms Act, which management has stated could have material effects on the companies ability to operate. Product liability has been minimal & contingent liabilities are recorded & charged to COGS as incurred/anticipated. The "Investment Community Communications Policy" states that they won't meet individually with investors or analysts & won't issue guidance (I kind of like this...) I don't own a gun & have no desire to either but I'm not going to steer away from what I believe to be a fact (guns are not going away in America.) (I am however, contemplating the purchase of a samuri sword, pike & compound bow to deal with the potential of a Zombie apocalypse ) We've had an assasination attempt on a Republican president with major injuries & deaths; horrendous shootings at our nations schools, theatre's, etc. & still, politicians & the public continue to leave gun ownership largely untouched (Waco? hello...) Alcohol, tobacco & firearms (and Rick's) are here to stay albeit with varying regulatory changes which will affect them all & cannot be ignored or anticipated accurately; but I can't just refuse to invest in one or all strictly for moral or ethical reasons. There are a ton of gaps in what I've written here (mostly the future regulatory / statutory implications) & any comments would be welcome (I bought a third of what I'd like to own so someone talk me out of buying any more...) I won't attempt to hang a valuation on it (I kind of already did with a purchase at $49.80 but I'm basing it on historical PE, PB, PFCF, PS & my own GIGO discounted FCF using a 12% discount & 6% 1-5 years, 8% 6-10 & 8% 11-15 years growth with a 4% terminal & no tangible added.) Earnings call coming up 22 February.

You weren't kidding about Breakthrough Advertising ($450 minimum & interestingly enough Amazon offers to let you trade in your copy for $2.) Thanks for these suggestions (added to the stack...)

That's a great idea. Let's use our powers for good, guys and gals. I'm for Colorado or Amsterdam!

Can anyone recommend a good book(s) on this? I found these on Amazon: https://www.amazon.com/dp/0130957011/ref=wl_it_dp_o_pC_nS_ttl?_encoding=UTF8&colid=PYCT6KM3B94B&coliid=I2JINMPD6W8IJW and https://www.amazon.com/dp/B008O5K0JE/ref=wl_it_dp_o_pC_nS_ttl?_encoding=UTF8&colid=PYCT6KM3B94B&coliid=I1YDQUWMZ80FX4

Great job Schmucko (stay douchey!)

You just made me realize that my aversion to debt in personal finance has bled over into my portfolio. I still feel comfortable with this approach because I know that I'm incapable of analyzing situations where complex debt structures are employed (can't separate good from bad...) & just about any increased level of debt seems complex to me. I've looked at many of the ideas presented here & when I see big leverage (especially when coupled with lumpy cash flows) I just walk away (believing it's outside my wheelhouse when maybe I'm actually just being lazy.) I like Howard Marks idea that protecting for downside is more important that planning for upside (I view debt as a big factor in this & realize that I can be neglectful of MOS in the process.) I'm wrong for not trying to learn how to look at these things & I'm right for staying with a consistent philosophy?!? Can't always be right but I can remain comfortable...

Be of good cheer my long distance friend! Berkshire provides customers with all of their physiological needs: Air - NetJets Water - Boats US Food - Kraft Heinz, Dairy Queen, CTB & of course See's Shelter - Clayton, Johns Manville & MiTek, etc. Safety - via a myriad of insurance products (Not to mention covering you arse with Fruit of the Loom) Berkshire provides a path for self actualization & self esteem for employees & "Here's to Love" with Helzberg Diamonds! Now if it'd just trade down to 1.2 or below (I probably shouldn't wait but I'm a tightwad...)

Desire for gain or fear of loss One leads to the other

I've never thought about this (thanks for bringing it up...) http://philosiblog.com/2011/07/01/if-you-only-have-a-hammer/ ----- This recent thread is interesting as well... http://www.cornerofberkshireandfairfax.ca/forum/general-discussion/my-new-formula-predicts-a-73-2-move-by-friday-your-details-inside/

I laughed, I cried (the "feel good post of the year...")

That's probably the best way to do it...

A bit off topic, but have you looked at BEAN? Think pampered chef for kid's clothes. I owned the shell company Noront (NOR) which did a reverse merger with BEAN. Sold some but not all of the BEAN I got because I am intrigued with the business model. I think it is pretty damned expensive and not bombed out at all however. It is early days with their growth strategy so time will tell. Just downloaded SEDAR filings & IR presentations (interesting at first glance - thanks...)

I'd like to start an idea factory here in a distressed sector... I've been looking at retail clothiers a lot over the past month or so & the Buckle has always stood out but... Most retailers are being forced to initiate online channels (no surprise here) & those who are most effective with omni channel will probably survive. Buckle's online sales declined significantly in the last Q & management says that's due to lower unit pricing (through discounting...) They've had a long stated policy of not doing promotional pricing & yet a recent visit to their local store showed big "Sale" signs in the front windows & 3 sale racks in the front of the store which IMO should have been in the back of the store. Buckle has relied on getting clients (not customers) who want to feel catered to (they're buying off the rack but with a tailored experience) & they rely on an aggressive sales force to make this happen. If you want to stand out in a club, they definitely have jeans you won't find anywhere else & this is what they built the business on. BTW every clothier in the mall had "SALE" signs & multiple discount racks (if retailers are able to specifically source product with "faux" promos in mind OK, but if they're losing margin from unplanned promos...) Read the latest BKE earnings call transcript (in particular, the pointed questions asked by Ujjval Dave...) If they were a bit more nimble with omni channel & had strong brand awareness (particularly as a high end jeans manufacturer) & were vertically integrated with manufacturing capability (unique & stylish jeans "made in America") I'd be more excited about the future (but I remember Merry Go Round.) In all my research, I chose the children's (new born to 8 yo) clothing space (lower price points & toddlers are cute as heck in nearly anything.) This is also an area of intense competition & promotions but it was easier to compare & the promotional price points are all very similar (Carters / Oshkosh, Childrens Place & Gymboree.) My choice of Carter's is due to low single digit declines in bricks & mortar with same store increases in new concept dual store formats (Carter's & Oshkosh) & the fact that Oshkosh is way behind Carter's & IMHO has room to grow. Their omni channel initiatives are showing strong increases & a new GA warehouse designed for online & ship to store, plus a new Amazon fullfilment program beginning now, will hopefully support these efforts. Plans to roll out around 40 to 50 stores between Canada & the US over the next 5 years & 1 new store in China with another coming online in the 1st few months of 2017 (management says they'll go very slow in China as they are aware of others getting beaten up there.) Children's Place does as good a job as Carters but they've had a really big run up over the past year & I like Carter's numbers better (Gymboree didn't impress me at all & Old Navy was poorly merchandised as well.) Ralph Lauren has a very nice line (expensive & very little promotional pricing...) I'm not creating a thread specific to either of these companies but hopefully a few will spring up... (Also looking at more vertically integrated Hanes & VF Corp) Does anyone think that manufacturing capabilities will be important in the new retail environment?

Kindle Paperwhite for books & iPad for K's, Q's, proxies, etc. (almost zero paper.) Back porch, comfortable chair in the living room & bed...

Trump should have taken Art of the Deal out of print...

Amen. آمن

Doh, several feet. I have probably about 50ft of books I haven't read... 8) :-\ The pile rarely shortens (as long as titles get replaced regularly, it's all good.)

Are you still holding the 3 for more?

I stand corrected... Do you think the book is sufficiently encapsulated in CPG Grey's vidis?

Obama used mind control

$2.99 for Kindle https://www.amazon.com/Dictators-Handbook-Behavior-Almost-Politics-ebook/dp/B005GPSLHI/ref=lp_6165851011_1_4?s=digital-text&ie=UTF8&qid=1486138330&sr=1-4 ----- By the same guys who brought you this wonderful YouTube vidi (1st intro'd here by Liberty) ----- the authors/producers follow up to the above vidi

I think he does these (if he still does them) because he enjoys the exercise...

Genius but like Meohistopheles said, this could encumber an estate. How about selling it to one of those "will work for food" guys? To the OP - Are there any restrictions on transfer of ownership?

I used eBay to get rid of one of these for my Mom & Dad years ago. As RK said, you gotta pay up to get rid of it. Arson might be another alternative...