Gregmal

Anyone know how Kraven is doing? I was just thinking about him earlier today. I was re-reading some quant stuff which led me to some antitrust legal canon concerning how Porter's Five Forces is basically bunk. I had a similar personal realization with M. Gladwell's stuff. I think my journey toward quant-esque investing has been probably kind of similar to his. I dont think I was here while he was an active poster, but we exchanged messages a little bit ago. He can chime in if he's still following but the gist was similar to what a lot of us have acknowledged the past few years. There is not a ton of unique investment related discussion here, and the investment related discussion that does take place, is often in the same trite names and largely an echo chamber...BRK, FFH, etc.

Bought some PSTH warrants

Dont forget to now mention all the liberal mouth breathers calling Sturgis a "super spreader event"....and here I took them at their word that outside events, like protesting the 1.5 dozen unarmed black people killed by cops last 12 months, were OK!

Trimmed a little more FIZZ and lightened up a hair on some MSGE(no less conviction just a very outsized position). Also swapped some SPAQ common into a few SPAQ/ws.

Muscle, this is the most productive post I have seen from you in months. The only thing I don't agree with is that some of the people who are down on Trump or are very concerned about COVID have not sold any stock and/or have been adding aggressively and selectively. The idea that people who think that Trump is unnecessarily killing US citizens and that this is NOT going to go away by Easter and that it is NOT as hoax, must be selling out of their positions and going to cash is just wrong. In fact I don't personally know any members of this board who report to have done that although there have been many accusations fearful selling lobbed in this thread and in the politics section, those accusations are likely off base. You have probably missed my prior posts. I was calling for a major top in the end of August. You may go back and read my posts in the end of August for my reasoning. There is no linear relationship between COVID improving -> buying stocks or COVID terrible -> selling stocks. People who think that way need to spend more time learning. I think I have understood you except for your use of the term herd immunity, which is a separate conversation from the one quoted above. My point in the quoted post above has nothing to do with you thesis. It has to do with the fact that in your post above you are giving advice to Dalal and others. There seem to be members of the board that assume that Dalal and others have gone to cash. I have not been following Dalal, so I do not know in his case, but I know in many other cases, those accusations are false. Just as many people who are political conservatives are called "libtards" and stuff like that. There are some very wrong assumptions regarding information that posters on this forum do not disclose such as how their portfolios are actually positioned, or what their actual political beliefs are. Oh boy. When one states something, all we can do on an internet message community is take them at their word. Of course, some people have demonstrated to be liars or incapable of honesty, which again, is what it is on an internet forum. But "I went to cash" or criticizing(or in many cases outright attacking) people relentlessly for saying the market is overreacting....well, I dont know how we can rewrite that. Everyone was in cash in March and now at all time highs everyone claims to have bought aggressively....just lol-worthy. Maybe some people are folks who can be described as " posters on this forum do not disclose such as how their portfolios are actually positioned" but given this is an investment forum, well, I dont really know what these people are doing here in the first place then. If you can't be transparent and honest on an anonymous forum whats the point? Other than freeloading off others? There's plenty of established investment professionals on this site that are more than generous with their disclosure and transparency...so there isn't really any excuse for some of the lesser-bodies. But yea "I hope you are invested in the market"....as they say.

A rally that he himself attended, no? What a crazy, suicidal guy! I mean he's nearly 80 and obese. So obviously, he was himself, in one of the small few groups of individuals with whom this would be much more than a "flu" for. And yet, he did it anyway! What a patriot. Regarding the first subject you brought up. Yea, its like basic 6th grade US history. Separation of powers. Checks and balances. But thats again, only if you are one of the tards who needs the government to tell you what to do in life...

LOL the academic talking about gymnasts and "enjoying the show"...so he likes to "watch" and perhaps taught at Michigan State? Eesh. As the pieces of the puzzle come together, more and more about this odd fella get revealed.

Who relied on what Trump was saying? I certainly didnt. I dont rely on any government official or agency to advise me on how to live my life. But to each their own. Maybe drop the "lib" but people who need the government to instruct/help them in how they go about life...they are just "tards"...there was enough data to get an idea of what you needed to do to be safe, so if you didnt...well, not my problem. Everyone with a brain knew the CDC was lying when they advised people not to wear a mask. They also understood the reason they lied was so there weren't even greater runs on supplies and that healthcare workers had supply. Same goes for stocking food/grocery stores/etc. You really, reeeeallly can't gander why?? it just might, make sense to manage the hysteria? Look at all the folks who reacted with hysteria in their approach to the markets...Now all they can do is embarrassingly say "stonks" and quote underperforming value investor adages about how the market is wrong and they are right lol. Start thinking for yourself.

Its just incredible to me how one ends up owning such a diverse portfolio of dogs. I get underperforming if you run high concentration strategies...duh. A position or two of size will hurt you if its goes against you. But its like everything some of these dudes own you wouldn't have been able to match if you dreamed up a perfect short portfolio. WFC, RFP, BHC, XCO....its almost funny. Just not as bad as Einhorn, who matches Chou 1 for 1 on the long side but then does the same thing on the short side as well. I remember one year he actually had the nerve to joke about how he owned like 3 of the top 5 worst performing S&P components, and was short 2 of the top 5 best performers....But it was just "bad luck"...

Yeah, some people are focussed on politics. Strangely, nobody on this forum is talking about France. Yesterday, France had 6,500 new cases for a country of ~65 million people. Yesterday the United States had 29k new cases for a population of ~325m people. Over the past week, looks like France took over the lead for the most significant covid outbreak amongst developed countries, relative to its population? Things seem pretty manageable in Sweden these days... So, shall we engage in a series of venomous statements about President Macron, now that France is "winning?" Is this MFGA? SJ Oh man. Prepare to be viciously attacked like the dozens of others who came before you; that dared present anything contrary to the narrative of the guy who got snubbed for debate team captain in high skool. Now back to crying about Trump. I heard yet another person who dislikes him is writing a book or prepared to make a statement about how much he sucks! Libtards....go crazy!

Posted in another thread...but figured this works here too. Seems to be a different year but the same story. https://valuewalkposts.tumblr.com/post/138102275370/2015-letter-klarman-tell-investors-he-is The “FANG” stocks (Facebook, Amazon, Netflix, and Google) gained $415 billion of market cap through the end of the year, a 55% jump. Netflix stock surged 134% in 2015; Amazon 118%. Their average price-to-earnings ratio soared from 49 to 120 times, according to Bloomberg. As in the Nifty Fifty era, money managers seem to have decided they’d rather be seen failing conventionally than risk trying to succeed unconventionally. Last year, the 10 largest stocks by market cap in the S&P 500 gained nearly 23%, while the other 490 stocks were down about 3.5% on average. “Value investors must be strong and resilient, as well as independent-minded and sometimes contrary. You don’t become a value investor for the group hugs. Indeed, one can go long stretches of time with no positive reinforcement whatsoever. Unlike some other fields of endeavor, in investing you can do the same thing as yesterday but achieve completely different reported results. In the long run, the research and analysis you perform should overcome market forces; the fundamentals ultimately matter. But in the short run, markets can trump effort and insight.”

He's not alone. Was sorting through some files at one of my offices recently and found a print out of this article from what is now half a decade ago. https://valuewalkposts.tumblr.com/post/138102275370/2015-letter-klarman-tell-investors-he-is

Slow day at the hospital I guess.

Thanks doc! Busy day at the hospital today?

Bought more 9/25 $100 AAPL puts.

I think part of the problem with guys like Klarman is that they are already rich, and did it their way. Type A, especially, forgive the language, nerdy intellects, are some of the most stubborn people on Earth. So yea, for a decade nothing some of these guys has done has worked...but they got rich doing it their way and they'll be damned if they ever listen to someone else who knows better. This is part of what is so admirable about David Tepper. He just kind of goes with what is working and is mentally able to change strategies on a dime.

Feel like this topic comes up every 3 months or so. Value investing works if you do it correctly. Nothing in investing is stationary. You need to be flexible in thought and disciplined in application. Buying a textile company at 4x just because Buffett did doesnt mean you'll become rich. Also worth pointing out that with money to be had this cheap, your 5x FCF isn't as valuable as you think it is. And if time isn't on your side, its even less so. Myself Ive gotten into trouble buying on the "discount to assets" strategy, as its easy to ignore the operational side because of "half NAV" or whatever. Where will your business be in 5-10 years is probably the most important question an investor can ask themselves. Sears didnt work for this reason. The properties weren't crap. They just had to continuously liquidate assets to keep burning all that cash on the biz...in which case the longer it goes on the higher the likelihood you are left with nothing. Trading at 50% of a $10B NAV with a $2B annual burn leaves you with nil after 4-5 years. Which is what happened.

I do recall Ichan pounding the table on AAPL, and doing his usual "hard sell" with a hyped up, headline grabbing price target of $250. Which adjusting for the split would have put the stock at $62.50.

I am actually looking forward to reading all the "Ill let others get it first" posts from folks who feigned concern and expressed partisan fueled, fabricated outrage at the humanitarian disaster unfolding as they screamed about "all those deaths!" and what could have been done to protect everyone. Like...eh, getting a vaccine to market for people!

To the extent that the virus is not out of control where I live, I will likely not get the vaccine for a while. In total, my county has less than 2000 cases, with the bulk being in nursing homes. The places I regularly travel are not bad either. However, should there be a noted uptick, or should I need to travel somewhere with a different profile, I would likely consider getting the vaccine. I only started getting the flu shot after having kids, and never really had a problem with the flu either. Just use common sense precautions.

The timing was fortunate and given how things have played out, I wouldn't be shocked to see things keep heading lower but with the very quick and outsized move I've always found it prudent to rebalance so that when things do settle you arent giving back your gains. For instance the QQQ puts went from 5 to about 12 in a couple days. VIX calls from $3.xx to 9. So take off excess, chuck it into "core" non speculative portion of portfolio, and work the rest to maximize leverage. VIX especially can cause profits to vaporize quickly. 35+ has historically not lasted long. The AAPL as well as most momo has shown a crack. So I think it makes sense that the sell off would play out sooner than later, if indeed its going to be one of those bottom falls out moments.

It was the only thing I had on my list of things to do today. Sadly a day late. Congrats on the timing. Thanks. Sold most of these today and rolled a portion down the chain, same November expiration. Also added to AAPL puts. Sold the AAPL puts and rolled a portion into closer dated Sept 25s, lightened up on the index puts as well. Bought some BIDU

Cant you buy it and then sell it to an LLC owned by your parents? A lot depends on how you are financing it.

Hmmm....maybe the COBF doctor psychiatrist can weigh in?

Ha! No one is upset. Its quite hilariously amusing. The "oh so serious" extinction level virus that we MUST! take every precaution against until we have a vaccine, EXCEPT! unless we want to protest/destroy property/shoot people/assault cops, now potentially has a vaccine and the tune changes as it always does. It can not be trusted! But if Biden wins it will be "the right thing to do"! and Joe will have "solved" the crisis.....Nobody wonders why the usual suspects always have the same stances when it comes to certain topics. I mean, hey, if you now all of a sudden dont trust Fauci, "the expert" everyone loved and claimed in the preceding months was a godsend, because you believe its "advantageous" to Trump....well, ok, dont get the vaccine... Keep doing whatever you've been doing since you have all the answers anyway.....you just might get dizzy and pass out as you chase your tail in circles. And dont walk into any goal posts...they might not be where you remembered them. You seem to move them a lot without knowing it.