Gregmal

I looked. And there is almost no criticism of Trump in Feb/March. He is the President of the United States. He's going to get criticism (even if he did everything right). But blatant Trump-bashing was exceptionally rare on this thread. My guess is that you are recalling conversations from other threads. No need to bash Trump, the man is fully capable of speaking for himself this subject: “Just the other day, they came out with a statement that 85% of the people that wear masks catch it” “A lot of people say masks are not good, I’ll tell you who those people are, waiters.” "If we stop testing right now, we'd have very few cases, if any' When the overwhelming majority of people who test positive dont even know they have it or experience symptoms in line with seasonal allergies....then yea, it gets to a point where creating boogeymen isn't really productive. Especially when all those nothing burgers get translated into "OMG look at all the people testing positive!" across newsfeeds everywhere. A lot of people had breakfast this morning. Some didnt. Some might have choked on their food and experienced discomfort....But we dont attach negative superpowers to breakfast, nor do many people scream "AGH!" when they hear/see the word.

Cut 1/3 of BEAM

Who cares? At this point the virus isn't at all what everyone made it out to be and that is clear. If I read another story about "event cancelled because of covid" or "2nd wave, lets shut down" I think Ill just go "all cash" like many of "the experts" here did in March. Its preposterous what MSM and hysterics can do. This entire thing is summed up nicely by the ESPN article on FL and AL situations. Florida game delayed because of covid! is the headline. Bottom of the paragraph...all 15 who tested positive are either asymptomatic or have very mild symptoms. Then "Nick Saban positive for COVID"...bottom of the article, Saban is asymptomatic and while quarantining, basically running practice from Zoom! Yea, another 68 year old who's gonna die. Everything about this, at this point, is "the flu". Perhaps MSM can start a "flu tracker" this year to give people something to do when they arent obsessing over covid. Everyone says" oh but 200k deaths!"...well, we shouldn't have been seeing 8% death rates, but you know.... Just the other day Cuomo was at his podium now claiming hospitals "were nowhere near capacity and had plenty of room back in April"...you cant make this stuff up. I'll go ahead and agree that this is the perception of a sizable proportion of people and decision makers. There may be little to change that perception apart from there being so many cases that mortalities go up above spring highs and/or hospitals are overwhelmed. The question I'd ask you is what data or events will it take to change that opinion, if any? For me, if there are lower mortalities and serious hospitalizations through the winter, no matter how it happens, I'll be happy to change my opinion. My take on it is that is part of what is enabling the virus to continue to spread leaving the US in a precarious position going into winter, along with lack of a national strategy. And once enough seeds of "spreaders" are sown it is too late to stop the wave from becoming overwhelming. What worked in the summer isn't working in a lot of countries despite all the precautions being taken by so many. There is an overwhelming force of the virus transmitting successfully under certain conditions (indoors, colder weather, close gatherings, etc). In the spring, the playbook was set by China by wide shutdowns, with Europe and some US states following. This time it may be Europe and some predominantly Democrat-run states scripting how we will respond. Time will tell. I think, like with any illness, it needs to be taken seriously, but the primary driver IMO is making sure the hospitals/health care universe is not overwhelmed and beyond not just its operating capacity, but its capacity with regard to functioning at a high level. Having extra beds but understaffed chaos does no good either. This was the primary point of lockdowns early on...although it is now perplexing, and indicative of a high level, coordinated lie, somewhere, that Cuomo is claiming hospitals where never near capacity. If true this is a major lie and further indicative of a hand waving power grab. The other point, is that part of not overwhelming hospitals, ERs, and urgent cares, is not scaring people into thinking they need to run there at the first sign of seasonal allergies...or, that if you test positive its a death sentence. The more that comes out, the more clear it becomes that the majority of people should just go on living their lives, with a mask. Thats it. And if you get it, not to panic. I said before, the majority of the people I know who have had it, 1) didnt even bother to get tested, 2) have had worse cases of the common cold, 3) got over it on their own. This seems to be whats playing out at many universities...which then begs the questions, if universities can open, why are schools an issue? If schools arent an issue, why cant people go to work? No one ever avoided a restaurant because of the flu. Michael Jordan had one of the most memorable games of his career, supposedly with the flu. Now we're outright cancelling games and banning fans...its insane.

Added a little bit to V.

Interesting. Lets go back and read Feb/March/April again...when people where trying to have investment related discussions and the covid experts drowned everything out crying about Trump....

The September asset sales closing is still under appreciated IMO. This is now a pureplay on OLED, should be generating reasonable FCF for a growth tech co, balance sheet now pristine, and a focused management. I like tech overall, but think the big boys will have headwinds because beating them up is a bipartisan issue, and some of the other stuff is insanely priced...MX has huge growth ahead of it and the valuation is reasonable.

Who cares? At this point the virus isn't at all what everyone made it out to be and that is clear. If I read another story about "event cancelled because of covid" or "2nd wave, lets shut down" I think Ill just go "all cash" like many of "the experts" here did in March. Its preposterous what MSM and hysterics can do. This entire thing is summed up nicely by the ESPN article on FL and AL situations. Florida game delayed because of covid! is the headline. Bottom of the paragraph...all 15 who tested positive are either asymptomatic or have very mild symptoms. Then "Nick Saban positive for COVID"...bottom of the article, Saban is asymptomatic and while quarantining, basically running practice from Zoom! Yea, another 68 year old who's gonna die. Everything about this, at this point, is "the flu". Perhaps MSM can start a "flu tracker" this year to give people something to do when they arent obsessing over covid. Everyone says" oh but 200k deaths!"...well, we shouldn't have been seeing 8% death rates, but you know.... Just the other day Cuomo was at his podium now claiming hospitals "were nowhere near capacity and had plenty of room back in April"...you cant make this stuff up.

There are two very distinct groups in the big urban based workforce. The younger folks, work to play. They want to be in the city. Not half an hour away. Then theres the older crowd. They work to support families and lifestyles. The latter is flexible. But the former? Dont think so. 25 year old tech/finance bros dont want to live anywhere but where the action is. There was a piece recently posted somewhere(might have been here, I forget) about how the current 30-40 age group, the one that largely drove rental rates across the country through the ceiling the past 10 years, are shifting significantly towards home ownership. The most preferred areas are about 15-25 miles from urban centers.

Little more GEOS edit: also added some MX

Theres not many truly good books on the mechanics of short selling, but there are some with decent case studies. The most effective process Ive found, is actually engaging in short selling, which is truly a difficult, time consuming, and energy intensive exercise. But it really gives you the ability to understand everything from managing entries/exits, tracking down shares, hedging, avoiding unnecessary costs, and other important aspects that when long, you are able to identify. Such as what anyone who is short a stock like DDS is thinking and feeling over the weekend after seeing that filing. Which would lead you to have been leaning towards a short squeeze occurring very early in the day Monday. Or what's the standard operating procedure when borrow costs seem to be climbing 20% a day. Or what the first instinct is when you get that dreaded email from the broker saying "BUY-IN"...

Yea I'd imagine that is collected data from a sweep of the GTB reports from major brokers. The relationship is not always that simple, but largely the rate is supply/demand driven. But a rate going up doesnt necessarily mean more people want to short. It could simply mean that x amount of shares already being borrowed have been sold. Thus forcing existing short sellers to either find new locates or cover. It could also be gamesmanship. Eddy Lampert was rumored to regularly switch his shares from marginable to nonmarginable to squeeze shorts. This is the exact tactic that Martin Skreli used with whatever that bankrupt penny stock he pumped was, to cause a whole lot of carnage, including the dude who ended up having to do a GoFundMe account after getting squeezed into a massive margin debt. Yesterday with DDS, I did notice the borrow rate dropped. That, and the follow through today, along with the benefit of hind site, may indicate that at least for the near term, the 52-61 early morning spike was your big short squeeze.

To my knowledge there is not anything that tracks real time(like to the minute) figures. The above is an art more than a science, but a bit of both at the same time. Some helpful things to observe that facilitate the ability to wager with confidence when the deck is stacked so to speak... 1. Borrow rates. There is a very high correlation with rising borrow rates and short squeezes. The reason is common sense. If your cost to carry rises from 1% a month to 5% a month...the trade becomes more expensive and less desirable and the experienced short seller also becomes aware of the risk others beat you to the punch in terms of deciding to cover. 2. Borrow availability. This is not as useful because many times shares are just tightly held or held in type 1 accounts. But HTB stocks are almost always the more likely to get squeezed compared to a GC stock. 3. Margin calls. Many times, a 10-20% move is really just the catalyst itself as it triggers losses and house rules that propel others to change their bets. 4. Forced buy ins. This is a big one and usually combines 1-2. When the rates rise and there's no more borrow, short sellers typically have 24 hours notice to either find a new locate or be bought in. This, from the firms I follow, typically occurs between 2-3 in the afternoon. Sometimes an hour earlier but always second half of the day and never after 3. Even just the notice of a potential buy-in creates panic and many times people will just immediately cover. 5. Option activity. As was touched on a while ago with the AAPL rally, options, specifically calls, force the market makers to going into the market and hedge. 6. Less frequent and harder to follow but some of the biggest short squeezes Ive followed have resulted from an out of the blue announcement that indicates even less stock is available than previously thought. Keeping tabs on tightly held companies with high short interest in the easiest way to track these developments. So you'll never "know" exactly when someone is covering, but if you follow the signs, you can get pretty damn close to predicting when something is brewing.

Exited RBACU and most of DDS

He is rich and got the best care....also known as "the good stuff"...aka the same stuff regular folks were getting in China in February and NY in March/April. Remdesivir, vitamin D, and zinc... Whats more likely(Cuomo nursing home blunder aside), NY/NJ/MA, etc running 6-8% death rates? Or cases back when testing wasn't being done efficiently are grossly understated? I know, the Earth is flat. Steve Wozniak was likely positive here in the state during the first week of January....fake news. I know maybe a dozen people personally who have had it. 80% haven't been confirmed/are not represented in the official case numbers... The entire bunch of old, fat, unhealthy US politicians just got this? Still waiting for the mass casualties... UF is pushing hard for 100% capacity at next weeks game. A guaranteed super spreader event, if so, according to the experts. If 2-3 weeks following that there isn't substantial evidence of this occurring, can people finally just shut up and get on with their lives? Its just non stop hype of this damn thing and there's nothing to indicate it is warranted anymore. Dont blow it off anymore than you would with the flu or any other basic common sense health/safety measures...but enough with the fear mongering and hysteria. Even back to Trump..."oh he was asking for it"...well a 74 year old in his condition getting the flu is probably pretty darn dangerous too. But stop giving this thing super powers that it clearly doesnt possess..

Quite ironic considering in Feb/Mar/Apr many folks were pleading for increased testing to determine accurate infection and spread statistics, but were met with resistance (what good will testing do!?). Eh people pushed for whatever fit their narrative. The people pushing for more testing mainly did so because they wanted to bitch about more positives...something that played out as expected. The majority here were adamant there was no covid in January and February, and that the fact there wasn't testing was irrelevant. That things only got out of hand in March/April because of "political" reasons, not because the virus was present before anyone knew it. I was in NYC in mid February and at a packed arena in early March. Life, and people were behaving totally normal. The damage was done through media hysteria and government policy. By and large the coverage and propaganda has turned people into a bunch of pussies. For instance, up until 6 months ago, if you had a runny nose or a cough you sucked it up or took some over the counter stuff and life went on. Now someone has a runny nose and they race to the hospital and are told they must stay in a room for 14 days. They become pariahs simply because they show symptoms of what most consider regular seasonal allergies. I mean Chris Christie was just released. Another fat fuck with no shortage of high risk flags...living to tell about it.

In February and March there was barely any testing, at least compared to today. Obviously numbers are drastically understated. Which is why it was again utterly unbelievable that some folks continue to cite statistics they cant possibly believe to be accurate. Its similar to the politically charged global figures as well. Trump called this out at the debate. "Oh US is x% of population and 25% of deaths"...."You believe the numbers out of China, Russia, India?"...."crickets"....

Zerohedge has had an unusual focus on the bioweapon thesis. There have been many stories including this one: https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/visualizing-secret-history-coronavirus-bioweapon Out of curiosity, in the event that the thesis is true (ie the virus is man-made and accidentally or even as part of a human plan, was released as a 'weapon'), this would have potential consequences for 'reparation'. But how does this change the defensive strategy, ie how to limit the damage, relatively speaking, in comparison to other countries for example, from a data point of view? imo, not in any respect. but the veracity of this claim is perhaps the single most important foreign policy issue today...and it is not being discussed as such, although trump has been alluding to it...put another way, how would you react to a bombing conducted by China against the US that resulted in 200k deaths? I know this is being provocative but my intent is to provoke thought. my understanding of the bioscience is quite limited, but sufficient to appreciate these claims as legitimate I disagree with Zerohedge. My classmate works in a flu lab in cold spring harbor in NY. She said before 2012, they've been doing a lot of things similar to what this Wuhan Virology lab's been accused of doing. They genetically mutate the flu virus to see how to make it more deadly. Later it was banned because it is too dangerous and doesn't really contribute to science a lot. That's the fact. The rumor part is that a lot of this kind of research was outsourced to China. The scientist Zhengli Shi (Wuhan virology institute's Vice Director) was obsessed with this kind of research because it is banned in most other countries, so if she did it, it would be so easy to publish top notch papers. She did publish a paper in 2015 regarding genetically swapping the S protein of a SARS like virus and then the virus can infect human. (That's fact, not rumor) So that's all I know. I still think (without evidence) that this whole COVID thing is an accident from Wuhan Virology Institute. The director of Wuhan Virology Institute is not very good. So I wouldn't be surprised of mismanagement of the lab. This is intentional and one of the biggest problems with MSM. They do things like this, to preemptively cut off and discourage the eventual outcomes that dont fit their narratives and agendas. It seemed pretty clear early on, especially paying attention to Chinas actions, that this most likely was a lab escaped virus, most likely the result of negligence rather than anything sinister. But when its already framed early on to be a tin foil hat, conspiracy theory pushed idea that the virus came from a lab...... Same thing with voter fraud. Sure it hasn't happened before on a large scale. So what? That means we shouldn't take precautions going ahead? Just ignore the issue completely? Never before have we had mail in voting be so prevalent as this year. But if you script the narrative ahead of time, and already paint anyone who brings this issue up as a crazy, its serves your purpose of immediately allowing you to discredit them.

Go for a fishing trip! Heck, you might land this sweet catch: And folks say to watch out for alligators and snakes down there....yuck.

In other news, after opening bars and nightclubs, Florida has now OK'd stadiums and venues to operate at 100%. Any advice on how to bet on 9% of the population dying in 2 weeks? Its god's waiting room remember? The next Italy(said Italy but meaning Lombardi).

bought back some DPZ I sold a few weeks ago.

Yup. Go to cash, bro. Extinction level stuff. Just see where the market will be in a few months. RIP World, March 2020....

Sold some short dated DDS puts and bought a few calls.

Sold my JOE. Nice run, although nothing material and basically just hot air regurgitations of the usual pitch, which has been out there for ages. Still like the company, but at 26 there are definitely more interesting RE plays out there.

Definitely fishing and sports for me. Really just anything that forces you to engage physically and mentally and kind of leave your status quo for a while.

Remember how unsafe it would be for professional athletes to play sports? Contact ones at that? And despite some leagues having little to no issues(NHL), and others having some big ones(NCAA, MLB), here we are. Cam Newton possibly coming back in less than a week. Same as DJT. Awful lot like the flu. With all due respect to the ones here have actually made an effort to be unbiased and are just genuinely interested in the science, I think as it relates to markets and investing, provided nothing extraordinary such as a horrific mutation or a liberal takeover and grand shutdown of the US occurs again, covid is pretty much a non material market story and really just fodder for the science nerds and academics at this point. Anyone ever remotely in favor a shutdown should look at how FL, AZ, TX, GA breezed through their "crisis waves", without doing what Murphy or Cuomo did here in the Northeast. The places in the market where it is material are places where psychological damage resulting from negligent shutdowns and politically charged and amped up news flow have created demand impairments. Which will linger a bit in the obvious areas but that too should have the worst behind it.