Gregmal

Interesting, a country with 90M people and 0 deaths...1, do you really believe that? 2, are you aware of cultural differences/effects? 3, is it possible that the virus just isn't as deadly as it was when NY/NJ/MA and Lombardi were doing their thing? As for the whole "the virus doesnt care" thing....this is just further part of the problem of giving this thing superpowers and all sorts of scary personalities hoping to whip up a frenzy....The flu doesnt care, chicken pox doesnt care either. Neither does HIV, and after asking, neither does peanut butter. We dont stop the world and usurp peoples freedoms and livelihoods for any of them. As someone mentioned in another thread, pretty soon you are gonna see the teachers unions pushing to make school hybrid/remote every year, during flu season. Because the flu can be pretty nasty too.

Agree on Queens Gambit. Very good.

The nice thing about this thread is(barring the editors) its all documented. You have consistently danced from one "example" of "success" to the next and consistently exaggerated the severity of the "virus". Europe was the example, then they weren't. China "cant be believed", now "they did it the right way"...NY was peculiarly, "the example" but when they go back into lockdown you find some "flaw" that now moves to why some other place is your current example. Pretty amusing. Its like going month to month talking about who the best investor in the world is and why they are successful based on a monthly return figure.....Orthopa's post, #8015 pretty much sums up everything. Shutting places down because of rising case numbers is retarded and will have consequences. People want nothing to do with this...outside of the extreme liberals who want the politicians to control everything.

I was looking at various covid tracker sites and have yet to find one that counts the number of small business fatalities, or the ones in critical condition. Unlike people, these are generally not asymptomatic. The jobs lost are huge, and the consequences on families is real. In the beginning, there were people making the case that the shutdowns didnt cause this, but rather people not wanting to go out did. This has been shown to be utterly false. An open economy will do better than a closed one. This isn't even debatable. I dont want to make too big a deal of the economic rebound, because just like it was preposterous to go shouting about "OMG worst numbers since Great Depression!" when duh, its obvious thats whats going to happen when you force businesses to close, but its worth noting that when things are allowed to remain open they can do OK. This now seems to be consensus, outside of a few like Jurgis in the other thread thinking that unlike every other profession, teachers will just drop dead the second they go back to the classroom like its an M. Night Shyamalan movie. Will there be a point when people hold politicians accountable for shutdowns? The election has basically come down to voting on shutdowns and subsequent handouts. How disrespectful to the people who have fought for our freedoms, that folks now give them away to their local politicians in exchange for some stimulus money. Land of the free no more.

Governor Goldman, back at it! https://www.yahoo.com/finance/news/nj-gov-on-a-covid-19-lockdown-if-we-have-to-shut-the-whole-place-down-we-will-205402414.html “This is real. People are dying,” --- This is life. People die every day Philip....but its a great campaign soundbite.

I guess we've come full circle. America was established by a bunch of folks tired of outrageous taxes, constant persecution for their beliefs, and overreaching governments....self governing I believe was the major theme. Now look at us!

Again, the fallacy of CASES! OMG! What a disaster...these people are total idiots. As I posted earlier...UF GAME CANCELLED BECAUSE OF COVID OUTBREAK......(tiny print) All 21 players are either asymptotic or show minor symptoms... Can we please create some place where a certain percentage of the population lives where there are high taxes, shutdowns every time one catches the flu. and absurd rules around things like soda, plastic bags and police officers doing their jobs...and another where there are no taxes, and people just live their lives??

I'm actually, on a very speculative and short term basis looking at buying a tiny amount of OTM SPY calls thinking that Trumps gonna drop some kind of vaccine announcement over the weekend right ahead of the election. Still got a good bit of spec money after the 8 bagger on DDS options a few weeks ago. Swung a lot of it to the core portfolio for money sucking REITs, but I still think we see some sort of shenanigan around stimulus or vaccine in an attempt to buy off voters next week. On hedging, IDK, still waiting for something to come to me. Ive just been gradually reducing speculative exposure and limiting what I do to things where you have a bit of an event driven, high payoff trade. Otherwise trying to be more disciplined about longs and raising liquidity. My few Nov 20 put plays are kind of set. Not looking at being too aggressive on the hedges.

I agree. But theyve already got their hands on every dime you take in from an employer. Every dime you receive from interest/dividends. Mandate(until recently) you buy inflated healthcare or pay a tax, tax your purchases(on goods that have been assembled largely with taxes incurred along the way) ranging from gas to the car itself and then year after year, DMV fees, insurance surcharges(and mandates)....after all that is settled they want a cut of your families worth, simply because someone died? Its just appalling. Sure they provide a lot of the benefits you mentioned, but thats also funded in good bit from the taxpayers pocket anyway or in a manner as I described above with the whole car/driving example. And if they didnt provide this, I am sure a private enterprise would have, if the venture made sense to begin with.

All of this still eludes the main issue here...why is the government entitle to this?

Added a little more MX. Good earnings and continued momentum. Volume should help remove some of the Brigade overhang. Cardboard.....lookin good.

Yea, its this simple, and just leave it at that. How do "poor" Americans compare to poor people in other countries? Hint: they're the top 1% of the poor.

Inheritance tax is disgusting. What has the government done to stake claim to that money? They already likely taxed the heck out of that money while it was being accumulated...whether a dry cleaner business or dividends from stock.

I hope so. I've just been watching this damn thing for so long and everytime there is a glimmer of something possibly positive its deemed a sign that things will be turning the corner any day now, with huge upside. The company is positioned for bad times in a good market, good times in a bad market...I mean at some point you just have to look at the past 10 years of decisions and mistakes and give credit where it is due. This isn't a company in an out of favor sector like O&G, or retail... I get that its gotten the short end of the covid stick similar to other insurance, banking and RE firms....but its supposed to be a company with "the smart guys" who are ahead of the curve. And its not and it hasn't been for over a decade now. Is there any case to say that on a risk adjusted basis you arent just better off owning WFC or BRK?

Geez, I hadn't looked at this one in a good while. What a total dumpster fire.

Nice start. QQQ's down about 1% a/h. As described, the MSFT experience indeed with FB, AMZN and AAPL. Google was super impressive but not really one of the stocks I view as having been put on steroids by the covid situation, so a bit different than some of the others.

LMFAO +1 Ive really just stopped caring about this. Its become such a laughable shitshow all around. When from day 1 even the experts(not COBF experts) but scientists, government agencies, etc are all chasing their tails and flying blind, dont wear masks!, oh wait no wear them! type shit, etc....IDK. Its a waste of time and energy. I only continue to be a monitor for the purpose of its investment ramifications. Otherwise, theres a news source and outlet for covid, for everyone. Just choose what you want to hear! Otherwise, I was at a hospital earlier and quite impressed by a little hallway gadget. Maybe the size of a kindle. Or a larger Samsung phone. Mounted on the wall discreetly. I walk by, maybe 5 ft away without even noticing it. Motherfuckin things says to me, "temperature is 97.6, you are fine"...pretty cool.

I think this is pretty spot on. As we've otherwise previously discussed, I just dont have the conviction necessary to make a macro type directional bet like I did in early September, at the moment. But I think your read is on point. For one, tech is priced pretty richly. Two, covid now, is pressing again and forcing repeated behavior similar to the first go around which will increase enthusiasm about these names. However at the same time, its always darkest before the dawn and while covid seems to be "spiraling out of control" according to some, we are also closer than ever to a vaccine and by any stretch, likely this time next year it will be a non story. So with tech co's trading at obscene valuations, the first sight signals indicate further robust demand, but the mid duration outlooks much of this dissipating or reverting somewhat, bleeding out the enthusiasm seems likely. I own but am underweight MSFT. I really want to add. The numbers were excellent, but Im holding off for now.

Yea that was pretty awesome to see the team rally around him. Great to see fans as well. We will see how many of them die. Folks need to stop living in fear and buying into the sensationalism. Seems every place in Europe is on their way towards some form or another of shutdowns...a darn shame. Thats the bureaucrat way. Which is possibly what we're looking at here if Biden gets in...granted it would likely be February by the time anything happens, but still. Its gotten absurd. Similarly and on a personal level, my father and his sister have kind of butted heads recently over this. Their mother, 97 years old, lives with my Aunt in Reno. Twice a year she flies to Florida to stay with my father. My father and his sister are on opposite ends of the political spectrum. My Aunt is also married to a typical New England finance guy. So 97 year old Grandma wants to come see everyone, but her daughter and husband are vehemently objecting on the ground of how unsafe it is. Granda's take? I'm 97, my life expectancy is probably what? 1-3 years regardless. Ive lived through Hitler and WW2(in Austria), and a whole bunch else that came after. I'll be damned if I spend my remaining years hiding in a bedroom in my daughters house. She takes every precaution imaginable, but otherwise tries to live as normal as possible. Meanwhile theres people in their 20s, 30s, and 40s behaving like scared children after watching a horror movie....Sensibility is needed.

i feel like i am really in the running for "most COBF dollars destroyed with ideas in 2020" award. Dont worry, the more you do it the more used to it you get. Seriously though, you can say theres always risk, but given where these have already fallen to and whats kind of being priced in, I think we've just(today) kind of gotten to a place where there is exhaustion(even many diehards have stopped buying) but on an absolute value basis, you're in a kill zone so to speak. Your initial JBGS write up for instance, in a roundabout way stated "its not the cheapest relative to NAV, but much better positioned". Well, how about 20% lower? That is todays prices. How about another 10-15% off? Same with ESRT and perhaps PGRE...there was talk of "$200 a square foot" or something...how about now? It's plain stupid territory and I can be quite stubborn but at the end of the day I dont care when you look at the profile of some of these. Its not like they're garbage. You're buying world class assets, cashflow, superb balance sheets(maybe not PGRE but I dont think they'll have liquidity issues) and well, in terms of in favor or out of favor....hmmm. I wonder where in the "cycle" we are on that? It often takes extraordinary circumstances to get extraordinary opportunities....well, thats this...The thesis has IMO been confirmed as companies like FB+AMZN still want to be in NYC, SF, DC, etc....this covid thing will pass, at worst over a short-mid duration time period and then from there everything will fall back into order, behaviors and pricing will normalize, and supply and demand will take effect. Long winded way of saying fuck it. Just obviously proceed with caution and realize this could go on a bit longer so make sure you have the capital to "rope a dope" the volatility.

Doubled my position in JBGS

David is disqualified from being taken seriously. Been wrong for too long. Although perhaps finally, finally, he may be on to something. I noticed the same thing on 9/2.

No idea. It seems anyone protesting these days is an extremist. Ive never understood it, or flying a flag, or bumper stickers, or any of that stuff but thats just me. I hope lessons were learned with the lockdowns and how destructive they are. Especially now that theres better understanding and significantly lower death rates. If China can build a massive hospital in 8 days you'd hope these idiots could figure shit out for a hospital setting in 6 months. Targeting hotspots makes sense to a degree. However even there, Florida for instance basically just shut indoor dining at bars and otherwise let the thing run its course....theyre fine. Despite record cases in aggregate it seems the pattern hasn't changed. You had your first states get walloped in March/April, then the next regions in June/July, and now a separate set of regions is taking it on the chin. Those that have re-opened, have seen the predicted bumps, but no massive reversions to previous levels, which one can hold their breathe, is a positive. Of course this can always change.

Riots in Italy over lockdowns....good for them. The political power grabs need to stop. You had 6 months to prepare "the system"...if you didnt do your job, you dont just get to rob citizens of their freedoms.

Just as much conviction as ever. For the 77th quarter in a row. https://www.cnbc.com/2020/10/27/david-einhorn-sees-enormous-tech-bubble-adds-a-few-stocks-to-portfolio.html