ValueMaven

'The sum total of capital allocation at Berkshire in 2020 was fantastic.'

I've always said BHE should have handled the ONCOR transaction better then it did. Hopefully it was a learning lesson for Able and team. Would have been awesome assets inside of BHE...huge, regulated assets in need of massive capital build-out w/very stable rate basis.

not a correct way to value BERK ... but I get your point

well done all - most of us thought CVX was it

https://www.barrons.com/articles/what-is-berkshire-hathaways-mystery-stock-big-investment-by-warren-buffett-could-be-disclosed-tomorrow-51613392217?mod=hp_LEAD_3 people are saying PayPal, DIS, and Home Depot as guesses ... frankly, I dont think it any of those ...

who asked prem to resign? Can someone post the part with this The Rude Gentleman ??

'Net losses on short equity exposures of $528.6 million resulted from closing out the company's remaining short equity total return swaps.' This type of 'stuff' is insane. That is why FFH trades BELOW book ... you never know what they are going to do!! I'm starting to think the Prem CDS subprime trade was luck ... his hit ratio on these macro-trades for the past decade+ have been poor

When will his 2020 letter come out?? This guy has the best view on Berkshire out of anyone IMHO. Very detailed analysis. Something like 30% of his fund is in Berkshire currently. I really like how he triangles valuation: SOTP, DCF, NI etc. Starting a thread here (now) so we can talk about his section on Berkshire.

already owns it - why would he need to file such a request then??

forwards are not like futures -- esp highly customized ones like TRS's on FFH. It's all OTC and highly customizable...not easy to offset at all to lock in a gain.

weird total return swap trade on the company ?? Why not just buyback stock?? it is way more meaningful then $100M/$200M you might make on a TRS trade linked to Fairfax ... argh!

Yes - but that was an arb play. They were tendering for a lot of stock - and selling off many parts of the business. It was more of a special situation then anything else...

Markel is totally random and def not it... BA is possible. So is GE and even something in the energy/midstream space

BV around $195 currently. Which puts current prices around 1.25x BV. Cheap!

Is it out yet??? I've suspected GE for sometime...

I say between $5 - $7B

Nothing

Man, Berkshire is sitting on a $100,000,000,000 paper profit in AAPL in just under 4 years. Amazing.

It's a brief DCF based on Insurance, BNSF, BHE, and MSR units. He aggregates it into a rolled-up SOTP's valuation.

Yes. Agreed.

Greg Warren is a very good analyst who has been brought back by Warren and Charlie over the last several shareholder meetings. This piece didn't generate enough hits when it was published (during the holidays) - but he is very thoughtful on his valuation case. It's a decent write-up and directionally correct. https://www.morningstar.com/articles/1016064/how-to-value-berkshire-hathaway

Well said. BRK buybacks makes the most sense at this point. They can buyback $1-2B a month and not even put a dent into the cash cushion. At 1.2x BV its a 68 - 70 cent dollar with a lot of optionality + cash reverse + defensive growth.

Great find. Thank you. This group is fast growing with strong combined ratios. Frankly, the insurance bench below Ajit is extremely strong.

It looks like he bought at an average cost of $308 USD roughly or about $420-425 CDN per share. It says he bought in the last few days before the press release...I would imagine it was around the 9th, 10th, 11th and 12th, where the stock was around $425 CDN or less and volumes rose. If he is buying there, then I would imagine he is expecting a return of better than 15% annualized or more over the next few years. Cheers! The question then becomes is Prem expecting a 15% return a good predictor of future 15% returns. ...and one to ask: ''is 15% a realistic expectation?''. I am approaching a decade of holding FFH and I am seriously wondering if this is a realistic target as recent shareholders (10 years or less) are yet to benefit from such appreciation. It sure attracts new ( and naive) investors. I am tired of hearing the 30 years track record and while I focus on the last 10 years, I can only come to the realization that shareholders fell short of expectations. yeah , yeah ... I am still around and will for quite some time, but I needed to vent and share ;) Even during the depths of the hedge fund crisis, when Fairfax stock fell to $53 USD, I don't remember Prem buying shares in such a significant amount. Frankly, I'm shocked that he put $150M of outside capital into Fairfax...that would be a decades worth of dividends for him. And if he didn't borrow the money, I would imagine that's probably half his net worth outside of what is held in Sixty-Two Corporation. Then again, I've got half my net worth outside of Corner Market Capital in Fairfax and Atlas Corp right now, so maybe I shouldn't be surprised...and I'm very comfortable with both and think both have 50-100% upside over the next 2-3 years! Cheers! What is the thesis on ATCO?

The more I thought about this cash ceiling - the more stupid I think it is... Also - does anyone know why BHHS is inside of BHE? Shouldnt it be part of the MSR 'grove'