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Sleepwell

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Everything posted by Sleepwell

  1. Not a podcast, but related to podcasts some big news today...spotify signs Joe Rogan for exclusive podcasts and videos in spotify (no more youtube and apple...) https://newsroom.spotify.com/2020-05-19/the-joe-rogan-experience-launches-exclusive-partnership-with-spotify/ https://www.theverge.com/2020/5/19/21263927/joe-rogan-spotify-experience-exclusive-content-episodes-youtube
  2. He's waiting for Disney to fall 40% so he can buy the whole thing :)
  3. Just out of curiosity, any other comments on why you chose a specific platform appreciated!
  4. 3x ebitda? Am I reading that right? That also jumped out to me... I think what they saw attractive was the financing they got in return. 576mm @9% 52MM in interest which is higher than the 47MM. I'm guessing there's some tax planning behind this too
  5. Warren E. Buffett, Berkshire Hathaway’s Chairman and CEO, said, “My partner Charlie Munger and I have known and admired the Lee organization for over 40 years. They have delivered exceptional performance managing BH Media’s newspapers and continue to outpace the industry in digital market share and revenue. We had zero interest in selling the group to anyone else for one simple reason: We believe that Lee is best positioned to manage through the industry’s challenges. No organization is more committed to serving the vital role of high-quality local news, however delivered, as Lee. I am confident that our newspapers will be in the right hands going forward and I also am pleased to be deepening our long-term relationship with Lee through the financing agreement.”
  6. I thought they never sold anything... more flexibility going forward? https://finance.yahoo.com/news/lee-enterprises-buy-berkshire-hathaway-114510889.html
  7. did not see this one coming... Replacing Bill as CEO will be Todd Combs, one of Berkshire Hathaway’s investment managers. “Todd has a strong career in insurance,” said Ajit Jain. “He initially worked at Progressive Insurance Company before going to graduate school to begin an investing career.” Since 2010, Combs has been an investment manager at Berkshire Hathaway. In addition to becoming GEICO’s CEO, Combs will continue to manage $14 billion of investments for Berkshire Hathaway. https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20191223005299/en/GEICO%E2%80%99s-Roberts-Retire-2020-Succeeded-Todd-Combs
  8. Have not seen a thread on this, if there's one I'm happy to move it there. Water scarcity and management is one of the biggest trends of the next few decades and there doesn't seem to be a lot of people paying attention to it other than your typical ESG guys. Not a whole lot of ways to play it, but a few names have come up from spinoffs over the the past few years. There's different ways to get exposure to it and different sub-sectors have different economics and growth rates. Here's an old Goldman primer that provides a good introduction. http://venturecenter.co.in/water/pdf/2008-goldman-sachs-water-primer.pdf Some names are: Xylem (XYL), Evoqua (AQUA) for Water technology and water treatment (utilities and industrial) Pentair (PNR) for filtration solutions, pool products Watts Water Tech (WTS), Mueller (MWA) for pumps, valves, plumbing, drainage, fire safety etc. (think of it as the hardware or piping) Roper (ROP) has a smart-metering exposure through their Neptune subsidiary Ecolab (ECL) industrial water treatment and cleaning solutions Most of these guys are trying to incorporate some sort of software solution/IoT into their businesses but I haven't seen much traction yet. Anyone following this space or have any thoughts?
  9. What are you trying to get at here? I ask because I used to work in Fixed Income research and this is not something we would look at. There's all sorts of distortions when looking at the S&P, need to take out financials, and then comes the question of whether you're doing it market-cap weighted in which case it would be very low because a lot of the tech co's have negative net debt to ebitda and huge weights so that would skew the whole. Overall I can say that the S&P is a pretty good Investment grade proxy, which as a whole has seen increasing leverage post crisis, in part due to lower rates. The way we would break it down would be by tracking it by credit rating, IG vs. HY overtime, and focus on BBBs which have become a huge part of the IG market and a risk in a downturn because many of them could be downgraded to HY and that migration could have some technical implications in the market (forced selling from insurance companies/pensions/MF etc). And the way you weight it would be by notional outstanding, so bigger issues get more representation (not by market cap which only looks at the equity) Unfortunately I lost access to this data but if you have any specific questions happy to take a stab at them.
  10. I know this is "meaningless" now but I see that P/B is somewhere around 1.29X, I know historically this area has been a pretty good entry point for BRK and if anything now more than ever given that P/B and Intrinsic Value per share have been diverging as underlying operating business value grows w/o being reflected in the balance sheet
  11. A podcast summarizing the book on Singleton (which is very hard to get) "A Distant Force" (with transcript) https://moiglobal.com/henry-singleton-lessons/
  12. A podcast summarizing the book on Singleton (which is very hard to get) "A Distant Force" (with transcript) https://moiglobal.com/henry-singleton-lessons/
  13. Loved that one too. I could listen to Rick speak all day. agree, and would also add that it's probably the podcast with the best audio quality I've listened to, given it was recorded in Rick's studio ;D
  14. Peter Attia is a magnificent interviewer. I would add to that the Rick Rubin episode. Rick Rubin is THE most legendary music producer, first half is about his career, second about fighting obesity and mental health. https://peterattiamd.com/rickrubin/ https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rick_Rubin
  15. For the theory behind it, I think Annie Duke's book is great: Thinking in Bets
  16. John Malone profiled in Barron's this weekend. Nothing mind blowing if you follow him closely, but a fun read. John_Malone’s_Liberty_is_a_different_ki...pdf
  17. anyone who has read both care to comment if the second is worthwhile? thanks
  18. Very interesting topic indeed. Let me share some thoughts given that I spend a lot of time of my day-to-day dealing with this given I work in Fixed Income Strategy. Coincidentally, my boss spent 10 years at the Fed working on monetary policy and how it translates to financial markets so I've learned a lot from him. (Kind of ironic that as a bottoms-up guy I spend a lot of my day looking at macro stuff, but still interesting). Let's define three things first. First, Short rates (think 2yrs and less) are very highly correlated with the Fed funds rate. The Fed sets an overnight interest rate at which banks lend reserve balances (at the Fed) to each other. This in turn has direct implications on the overall money market rates across markets (LIBOR, short term bank lending, Treasury bills, prime rate etc.) How does the Fed come up with this? Well, the Fed has a DUAL mandate, maximum employment (BIG checkmark here right now, there are more job openings than people to fill them) AND stable prices, this importantly includes a 2% inflation mandate and the prevention of asset bubbles (aka financial conditions). Right now inflation is (finally) at or above 2% depending at what measure you look at (they look at core PCE and economists look at core CPI). But it's going in the right direction. The second important concept is the Neutral Rate, or the rate at which the Fed is not in a restrictive or accommodative stance, thus letting the economy run naturally without giving it anything nor taking anything away. There is no way to know what exactly this is but there are various estimates, basically looking at forward inflation dynamics (10yr inflation breakevens) and potential growth. Both of these have come down due to poor demographics (think Japan as the extreme, very old population), lower productivity and technology. The estimate is the neutral rate sits at 2.75-3%. Third concept, Long rates, the most widely followed benchmark being of course the 10yr Treasury. IF we knew what the neutral rate would be for the next 10 years, the 10yr treasury should trade at the average level of the neutral rate. Of course this is not the reality and there is uncertainty tied to this, but essentially the 10yr treasury trades on whatever the market thinks inflation is going to be for the next 10 years+some compensation for growth+some compensation for uncertainty (aka term premium, right now this is negative - prob because of QE - and a whole other subject). This brings us to the yield curve, the Fed will keep following its mandate and thus keep hiking interest rates as long as the data suggests it has a 2 checkmarks on the both mandates. In fact, it will probably overshoot, meaning it will go above the neutral rate in order to slowdown the economy and prevent any sort of overheating, which usually doesn't end well and is a worse alternative. On the other hand, once they overshoot, and say they are at 3.5% and the 2yr is at 3.8%, the 10yr will probably be trading below that because it will be pricing in a probable recession as we get to the end of the cycle and an economy that over the next 10years will have low inflation and low growth, so it might be trading around 3.5% (just a little above where we are). Thus we would have an inverted yield curve, with a 2s10s curve of negative 30 basis points. This has happened basically in every single cycle going back 80 years.
  19. Hey guys, Does anyone know which online broker will open an account for a U.S. citizen living outside the U.S.? It seems like some of them wont accept this (I tried E*trade and Schwab) maybe Interactive Brokers? thanks a lot
  20. up 20% with an average 10% cash position. all contribution came pretty much from Ally, BRK and GM. others barely moved and got killed (again) by ICON. hopefully I learned a thing or two.
  21. First comments he has on Bitcoin as far as I am concerned too. "Believe me man is capable of creating more Bitcoin, they tell you they're not gonna do it but what they mean is they're not gonna do it unless they want to" "It's bad people, crazy bubble, bad idea, luring people into the concept of easy wealth without much insider work" priceless.
  22. This is an incredible gift to the members of this community Daniel. Thanks a lot, I'll be reading this the next few weeks. :D
  23. Has anyone read it? Originally published in 1985, it's Michael Maubossin's favorite book, possibly the next one on my list. https://www.amazon.com/Creating-Shareholder-Value-Managers-Investors-ebook/dp/B000FBJHHG/ref=sr_1_1?ie=UTF8&qid=1507587065&sr=8-1&keywords=creating+shareholder+value+rappaport P.S. the used versions are much cheaper
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