Dalal.Holdings

1,941 deaths in a day exceeds average number of U.S. deaths from heart disease (~1700-1800) in a day. Tragic. Clearly aggressive action was necessary. Hopeful that the slowing in growth of cases leads to peak in mortality soon.

Worth taking a look at: https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2020/04/april-7-update-us-covid-19-test-results.html

Attempting to pass the buck: https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1247540701291638787 100% will work on some people.

FWIW: https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-china-cdc-exclusiv/exclusive-u-s-axed-cdc-expert-job-in-china-months-before-virus-outbreak-idUSKBN21910S Why didn't Cuomo or De Blasio pick up the slack? And those who are most ardent about the blatant failures of government (coincidentally, the government is most inept when they happen to be the ones running it) always find a way to fund things like Defense Dept and bloated contracts to companies like Boeing ("cost plus!"). It's national security (a form of precautionary principle), but defending against a pandemic or funding the EPA somehow not on the same level of priorities for those folks.

A lot of these actions (mobility, deep breaths) are used routinely in hospitals to reduce the risk of pulmonary complications post surgery (out of bed orders, incentive spirometry) so they make sense. They can help clear secretions, improve pulmonary mechanics, reduce risk of atelectasis (part of lung collapsing leading to pneumonia). Can also reduce other complications (deep vein thrombosis). Other actions that I think help are: - Indoor humidification (optimizes mucociliary clearance-MCC) - Avoiding cold air (MCC is optimal at core body temp) - Maintain hydration (optimizes mucuous layer that covers respiratory tract and clearance of particles/microbia and may prevent viral attachment/entry)--so optimizes MCC again; use oral rehydration formulas to do this: pedialyte, gatorade, or just water + salts + sugar - Vitamin D (some evidence about upper respiratory infections in general) - Multivitamin (because why not? asymmetry) In fact, a lot of asymmetry with all of these.

Exhibits A and B for my point. Not to worry too much about the fools of randomness as the key concern for those who take this seriously was that policy makers would be among these people. Thankfully, we have seen the vast majority--even those that dragged their feet--take it seriously when reality became impossible to ignore. Even the guy calling it a "hoax" just a month ago now claims he was on board the serious person train the whole time! As policy makers have largely understood seriousness (though some variation depending on where you live), the systemic threat is reduced. Those who continue to minimize the threat confine a large part of the consequences of their views (ignorance) to themselves which is the appropriate outcome. TL;DR: don't waste time on the fools of randomness--I certainly will not.

Definitely positive. Our President (Cuomo), who has already accomplished the highest volume of testing per capita (even though NY is among the most populated states), is now talking about antibody testing -- those with proven immunity to be let out first. Seems like a decent strategy, but the concern is that may be too small a number to celebrate "reopening". Nice to have a cautious, reasoned leader though.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/live-blog/2020-04-07/new-york-governor-cuomo-holds-coronavirus-briefing NY new cases decelerate to ~8%, new deaths grew about ~15% (not insignificant). What this tells rational folk is: 1) Deaths are delayed and a lagging indicator (duh) 2) The benefits of seemingly draconian "overreaction" by President Cuomo (the de facto President for 'cesspool' NYers) are only seen weeks later. Likely due to several week incubation period before severe symptoms develop. Nonetheless, President Cuomo's management of this "hoax" has been superb, especially considering the fact he does not control the FDA or CDC.

Agreed that it is obviously not the flu. Re: the title question of this thread, it does seem like there will be plenty of "just a flu" folks who are basically impervious to looking at data or applying some common sense napkin math. They're going to be confident in booking travel, going to mall, book cruises, etc as the economy reopens. So forecast accordingly. And this graph is despite unprecedented mass school closures, social distancing, masks becoming normalized, lockdowns, and travel bans. But I guess some will continue to think we are "overreacting".

#1 for sure. Many businesses like to run things with maximal capacity in mind--and they have leveraged income statements (operating leverage) and balance sheets as such. Few anticipate not having full restaurants, airplanes, hotels, etc in perpetuity. And few managers keep excess capacity on hand like Buffett is trained to do--be it cash or operating margins or inventory. MBA "balance sheet management" means lever up to 2-2.5x EBIDTA (and project that EBITDA to grow 3% per annum in perpetuity). As we see MBA level "inventory management" means keeping just enough on stock to get through tomorrow. If there is a squeeze--for ventilators or masks for example, it creates all kinds of headaches and extreme outcomes. As Warren's Noah Rule says: "Predicting rain doesn't count. Building arks does."

Fuck off

Nice to see a glimmer of hope for NY, but it must not be forgotten that a huge cost was taken to produce this outcome. It did not happen on its own. To compare Flu deaths to this (which occur without any sort of extreme measures like lockdowns or travel bans) is absurd. Some models continue to project that deaths have yet to rise for the U.S., solidifying the thesis that deaths are delayed and this was not as widespread months ago as many thought. It has played out in order: places that have a surge of cases have a follow up surge of mortality ~2-3 weeks later. It has not occurred simultaneously around the world, but rather in a specific sequence. The question once NY cools further is--will there be a Spain to our Italy (NYC)? NYC had rapid rate of growth in U.S. due to density (R0 is higher in that case), but other areas could follow. Nothing guaranteed, but other areas are taking precautions already after witnessing NY (which many claim are excessive). And we also have to see what happens when the actions that slowed progression (lockdown) are reversed. Anyway, the reason we are all here: investing. This pandemic (which has been repeatedly minimized by many) has already had huge impact on markets & the economy and we have not even really seen the beginning of that (i.e. earnings season about to start...), and it may have a long shadow of impact even after this has all gone. Clearly an impactful event that those who took this seriously & necessary precautions 1+ month ago dodged a big body blow. Always opportunities to dip in, but remember bear markets take time to play out (unless "this time is different"). Markets meanwhile are pricing in a 'V' type economic trajectory...

Well he went in big on Gamestop and Tailored Brands, so not surprising.

Two points: - Scientists and doctors rely on evidence. There is little evidence that masks protect the wearer in low-risk situations. There are two reasons why there is little evidence. One, they probably are less effective than you think (see below). But mostly, ethics boards tend not to approve research studies where you intentionally expose someone to an infectious disease. Doctors/scientists love to say: "there is no evidence that...". But we should remember what useless Taleb says: "Absence of evidence is not evidence of absence" After all, there's a reason there haven't been too many randomized controlled trials studying the impact of mask wearing on a pandemic involving spread via respiratory droplets. Again, invoking Taleb/or a trader's POV: wearing a mask provides asymmetric payoffs for the individual: little downside, lots of potential upside: (i.e. like the asymmetry Trump gets with his loyalists) For Fauci and the government, lots of downside if people start hoarding masks because they did not prepare our stockpiles and have burned a few bridges with nations who can produce them for us.

--Rush Limbaugh, January 2009 (when America was in the throes of the GFC). Its telling that there biggest mess here is the cesspool called NYC where you live. You've got your mayor and your governor, both whom have handled things vastly differently. Both of whom you elected. And you blame Trump.... Here you are "rooting for America". What a patriot. How am I not? Ive stated plenty off times that now isn't the time to be bitching and moaning and playing politics... I just find it odd how the above works. If you want to assign blame how do you not even mention two guys you elected, responsible for running your city, that have more than their share of "issues"? Its just inconsistent I've already criticized De Blasio and praised Cuomo (who is doing a much better job than terrible NYC mayor or POTUS): Nice try bud. And we know the formula any way: Covid bad outcome: blame local leaders Covid good outcome: POTUS gets credit Asymmetry!

I haven't seen Flu outbreak do something like this: Hope he's ok.

--Rush Limbaugh, January 2009 (when America was in the throes of the GFC). Its telling that there biggest mess here is the cesspool called NYC where you live. You've got your mayor and your governor, both whom have handled things vastly differently. Both of whom you elected. And you blame Trump.... Here you are "rooting for America". What a patriot.

We know the formula: When you criticize a Republican President's terrible response to a pandemic that he minimized repeatedly, you "root for America to fail". When you literally hope for failure in a Democratic President, you deserve the Medal of Freedom: --Rush Limbaugh, January 2009 (when America was in the throes of the GFC).

https://www.ft.com/content/c4121d80-0815-4d7d-b43f-582f55ad2892 LOL! Let's bail these guys out, hit consumers/refiners with tariffs that raise the price of WTI/gas so these companies can keep paying their shareholders divis! No moral hazard here. Daddy Trump to the rescue!

I'm actually pretty optimistic, not based on a return to complete normal, but rather a return to normalcy. I think the frequently posted Hammer and Dance article describes nicely what can happen. If you take the Hammer and Dance article as the medium-term objective, you just need to look for ways to reduce the impact on lives. Based on results in Asian countries, everyone wearing masks dramatically reduces the R0. That makes the dance phase much easier. What's more, as each week goes by, we add to our knowledge of how to treat this disease. If we can reduce the transmissibility through masks and reduce the severity and length of time in hospital through new treatments, then we're basically back to the flu. So, I think there's a decent chance we're in a normal--with the addition of people wearing masks--by July. Ya and wouldn't it be shocking if Trump was at least partially right? That we may be blowing this a bit out of porportion? I am not ruling that out. Well if Trump is right, he gets all the credit. If he is wrong, it's Obama's fault because he wouldn't be President if it weren't for Obama. He has successfully passed the buck to his predecessor (among his followers). Real 8-D chess over here. Really how he has operated since birth--he gets all the upside, others the downside (the buck stops...). Kind of like what he wants for the oil industry.

That is a form of nationalization and will never happen and you know it. The GOP, whenever in power (good times will keep on going brah), will always erode any government intervention/taxes/share of the profits (e.g. Trump tax cuts during growing economy). So over the long term you end up with capitalism for the upside, socialism for the downside.

It is bullshit and amusing at the same time how rapidly "free market" principles are (temporarily) thrown out by their most ardent proponents. They'll be back to talking about free market principles and personal accountability once things are better. Trump looking to bail out his core voters--does not have any principles, and only motivated by self interest.

This is a simplified way of looking at the problem. Not everyone spreads it to 3 other people. Some people spread it to 10 people (super spreaders), some to none. What happens to R naught when there is a global pandemic, everyone limits social contact and starts wearing masks? I estimate it goes downwards on average. There are some diseases that are very contagious that are very hard to contain like Measles, but I think with masks and the right social changes, Covid can be stemmed significantly over time. And hopefully that buys time for healthcare system and effective treatment/vaccine.

Yes, Obama's fault. Or maybe it was the GFC before him that didn't become a depression thanks to him, but left "People angry, on drugs and/or have no/low paying jobs.". The 1930s were much worse than the 2010s.

Thanks--agree it's a reset mode, but think it's just the beginning. The resetting will be painful for the industry for a long while and IMO Trump cannot stop it. I'm sure the super majors are hoping to pick at the carcasses of all those shale firms down the road as well. Only after wide consolidation may more "rational production" take hold out of U.S. oil output, but will take time.