Dalal.Holdings

KC, The MAGA trolls resort to personal attacks like their savior when they are no longer able to defend their broken arguments. Just look at cigarbutt’s efforts to try to maintain objectivity in the face of it all. The end result is it drives out the more nuanced, objective folks and you are left with a very “high quality” forum, of course! As I said—they've made CoBF Great Again—like America!

We don’t need anyone to weigh in except for the sociopath’s enablers...They have truly made CoBF Great and objective! Often wrong, never in doubt of course! Enjoy your “herd immunity”!

Painting the current system as corrupt, flawed beyond repair is a great way for a much worse leader to gain power. “Everyone else is a dirtbag too, so why not me!?”

"Extinction level threat" that I heard someone else once say about covid, but now I'm going to say you were the one who said it to discredit you! Classic! How's your work on the flat earth theory coming along? My friend in the ER in SD told me the vaccine is a hoax, so it must be tru!

Lol, the "usual suspects" who supported a guy because he undermined institutions now confused why we don't trust Trump and his CDC/FDA on a vaccine...so strange! Who could have seen this coming?? Maybe undermining trust in things like the "deep state" has negative consequences! Oh, well! Or maybe Donnie will come out later and say he was "being sarcastic" about this vaccine being safe & effective like his bleach therapy! And for some reason they are upset people don't believe in the vaccine when they are sure we have achieved "herd immunity" already! What's it about holding contradictory ideas in your head?

So much TDS out there it has infected many prominent Republicans too! More infectious than covid!

Donald Trump has incredible credibility even before entering the WH. I would definitely buy a used car from him, let alone allowing his team to inject a rushed vaccine that happened to be ready 2 days before election day in me ! Totally credible, trustworthy guy who if you had a daughter, you’d be thrilled she married ! Or not. Might be TDS but in my neck of the woods not wanting Don as a son in law would be deemed common sense...Some of us can spot a con more easily than others I guess.

Injection will be great! Unfortunately side effects and whether it works or not will not be known until after you cast your ballot!

Vaccine coming...2 days before election...Because Phase III studies are for libtards! https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-09-02/cdc-tells-states-to-get-ready-for-nov-1-vaccine-distribution Enjoy your MAGA injection!

Wise move! MCGA

You need to start seeing the bright side of things—this thread has been Made Great Again—just like America...enjoy!

Agree, great product. Why not keep it free after Beta and just IPO with a huge DAU count thereby escalating the valuation to stratospheric heights ? Everyone else is doing it...

Your charts are irrelevant. We've "reopened" and cases are going down (ignore that mobility/transit is way down, we're wearing masks, some of us are distancing, schools are closed, warm weather, etc etc), so that clearly means we have achieved herd immunity! We did it! Lol, good night!

"You fail to commit to anything" "LOL, he made a quick buck on RCL puts in March when RCL sold off > 50%, but think of the carrying costs!" "Lol, he still posts in TSLA thread even after selling out at $800 after buying at $200 last year", "LOL he still posts in PTON thread which is up over 100%, but the robintrack data clearly shows he's a Robinhooder!" "Covid was widespread in USA in January with more than hundreds of thousands of cases or more...wait by that I mean there were only a few cases here in January" "NYC has a huge mortality rate which shows the failure of Cuomo! But at the same time, they were gunshot deaths labeled as covid according to some guy in SD!" "When he said 'herd immunity', it doesn't matter because he was right about stonks going up!" Endless entertainment! Impeccable analysis! And: often wrong, never in doubt!

You can and you do! The last sentence says it all—easy to disprove just like everything else you post. Apparently in Feb I was “rooting for things to go lower” (which they kinda did in March) but then I also “don’t commit to anything”! Lol! Which is it? Having two contradictory beliefs in one’s head! My trades have ripped my face off apparently ! Apparently you can indeed make stuff up!! Often wrong, never in doubt!

And look how far you’ve come—now you spend much of your time on this forum following me around trying to one up me even if you’re completely wrong! “Herd immunity”!

LOL! Your finest work yet. Mods, Personal attacks like this must be defended on this forum or he’ll get upset that you are infringing on his conservatism! Mr. “I was such a cool jock in grade school and now I spend my time bragging about how cool i was in skool and I troll on an investment forum...how times have changed”. You do you! It wasn't a personal attack, I was trying to comfort you! Whats your address? I'll Fedex you some tissues and a care package, Dr. Dalal. MODS!!! HALP! Tell us all how cool you were in school though! Did your parents also tell you that you were the most handsome boy in skool? We need to know more!

LOL! Your finest work yet. Mods, personal attacks like this must be allowed on this forum or he’ll get butthurt that you are infringing on his conservative rights to insult people! Mr. “I was such a cool jock in grade school and now I spend all of my time on my computer bragging about how cool i once was in skool and I troll on an investment forum...how times have changed”. You do you!

There is only one definition of “herd immunity” and it is a simple mathematical calculation. Pretending that a decline in cases is due to your b.s. definition of herd immunity is wishful thinking. Herd immunity is calculated assuming the whole population is susceptible AND there are no other interventions. There is some population level immunity that is helping control cases in hard hit areas. But the low level of spread in places that haven’t been hard hit is pretty compelling evidence that partial immunity isn’t the sole or even predominant variable controlling spread. You do realize who you are talking to right? If anyone wants to know why the U.S. is in the state that it’s in, you’ll get lots of insight from some of the minds in this forum. This is the type of thinking that resembles our leaders who have overridden people like Fauci. Very happy to have them as fellow investors though!

Ok...So I guess "the crash" will be in 6 mo then... You also said schools will open in most states by September which is possible but depends too much on local politicians. I think new case numbers will improve from here on out (have likely peaked nationwide), but "dramatically improved" is questionable. Furthermore, hospitalizations and deaths will have a longer tail due to inherent delays. I definitely do not think there is enough data to suggest we are close to herd immunity as you've suggested. But none of this really matters economically as the damage is done particularly to the U.S. due to a much longer drawn out and larger in magnitude pandemic than most industrialized countries (second round of fiscal stimulus in progress...). Those second and third order (largely economic) effects of the pandemic will have a long tail... FWIW muscleman Thank you for apologizing about the 20k figure. Most people agreed a month ago that we had already peaked and cases would head downward. There is no sudden drop suggestive of herd immunity end of August. It’s a gradual decline. There is a clear epidemiological definition of herd immunity with a well defined threshold, we don’t need to debate that. FL and GA had double digit positivity rate last week (1/8 positive) which is not a good thing and shows herd immunity is not anywhere near at least according to an epidemiologist’s definition of the term.

How anyone can plausibly claim any country has reached "herd immunity" until we better understand seasonality is beyond me. Doesn't make sense to me. Neither do high confidence short term market predictions outside of a few rare scenarios. But what do I know. Maybe Graham was wrong and we can know with high confidence what kind of mood Mr. Market will be in tomorrow. About 1/8 people tested for covid in FL and TX were positive last week. Says all you need to know when it comes to "herd immunity" in these places. When you trust people who are wrong yet overconfident about a situation with more downside than upside, the results will not be pretty...

Wow, what a value investment site! We trade on “market momentum“ now and of course anyone who is right about where the market goes over a few weeks must have predicted it! Sure, his reasoning about herd immunity was wrong, but the S&P went up a little like he said—what are the odds of that happening? Just kidding, odds and probabilities are for nerds! What’s next, Technical Analysis posts? This just keeps getting better.

Clearly when he said "states like NY" here, he meant NYC! Oops:

PSA: YOU CAN NOT DERIVE THE HERD IMMUNITY THRESHOLD FROM EMPIRICAL OBSERVATIONS DURING UNPRECEDENTED NPI. Flu deaths in Australia are down 90% YoY. You can pretend that social distancing, hand washing, masks, school closures have no effect on transmissions of contagious respiratory viruses. But the evidence is overwhelming against your "opinion". Anyone who is using empirical observations to derive "herd immunity" should immediately be disregarded as a hack. BTW, for the "it's just the flu" crowd, the proper comparison is with flu deaths from March 2020 to March 2021. The burden of proof for herd immunity is very high. It is much easier to prove that herd immunity does not exist (all you need to see is a rise in cases beyond a certain threshold) than it is to prove herd immunity exists. Which is why it was so strange for muscleman to be so confident we'd have nationwide herd immunity by end of August. For example, Buffalo now shows that there is likely no statewide herd immunity in NY (even though muscleman claimed with high certainty that we'd have herd immunity nationwide in USA by end of August and then just revised that to a few states including NY).

LOL. Muscleman was "directionally" right! We have "herd immunity" by the end of August in the USA just like he said...wait not the USA but only in select states NY, GA, FL, ...wait, cases are up in Buffalo? I mean herd immunity in NYC, not NY state! Dur how did Dalal screw that up! And not GA of course, I was kidding about that one! And the positivity was > 10% in FL in the past week? Oh, ignore that claim about herd immunity in FL too--see, Dalal was wrong! Dur I just change the original arguments to make sure it looks like Dalal was wrong! And of course I predicted all of this bc I am Nostradamus!