Vish_ram

I did both CFA and MBA. I was an industry outsider (Engineering background) without any knowledge of economics, finance, accounting etc. I’ve been an investment advisor of my own firm I had cofounded. on the plus side it adds a ton of credibility. It adds to your confidence, if I put in effort I can easily understand anything. without the formal approach I may have lacked the discipline to learn them all. All knowledge is cumulative. It sure has helped me with the returns. As most know knowledge, intellect, education may account for 10% of returns.

Bitcoin standard

I know we all like acquired podcast. I did a little experiment. I asked Gemini to create a two pager on "How Google makes money". I fed that to NotesLLM and got a podcast out of it. I then created it into a youtube

This is just a modern day version of Nigerian email scam. I'm sure some patsies will privately DM the poster for joining such a scam. There should be some subscription list that is getting peddled. A investor with great returns will soon manage money and in no time will cross $100MM. Then 13F has to be filed and it is not in real time. SInce 1994, S&P returned 10.4%, now the mystery investor makes 40%. A 10K compounded at 40% over 30 years yields $242MM.

I had a great hike in Dolomites (Italian alps). Few folks who hiked with me said Milford sound NZ is a great place to hike/visit.

check out GWW too.

High ego sociopathic savant. I think this country dodged a bullet. He had wanted to buy CME, Goldman Sachs etc. His goal was to control the entire financial system.

Great article https://www.wsj.com/world/middle-east/two-state-solution-israelis-palestinians-708b6075 I find it fascinating that at every turn in history, Palestinians (& Arabs) have rejected the 2 state solution. What we've is just a proxy war of West with Iran & others.

don't pay any attention to "a holding of a respectable value investor," focus on cfo, fcf, fcf/sh

are you hiking there? I'm thinking of doing Alta Via 1

Here is a path to $100BB MCAP for GME, a 10X from here 1) Invest all cash in BTC 2) keep closing unprofitable stores 3) run a bare bones operation 4) issue stock/bond/convertibles periodically and go back to 1.

The most rational thing for roaring kitty to do is to pick a series of undervalued stocks and do the pump/dump. He could've become a billionaire. what a missed opportunity!

Japan was great, Kyoto in particular. Cheap yen was a blessing

The next issue of 10%. the reason this works are 1. inflation may run at 2-4% LT and cos pass these prices. Nominal stock prices reflect this 2 Index returns reflect pop. Growth of 1-2%, productivity growth of 1-3%. 3. index returns also reflect more efficient companies that grow faster than GDP (M&A, mgmt incentives etc) add it all up, you easily get 10% or more.

There is no law that says market multiples have to be in this range and anything beyond will be subject to a mean reversion. To compare multiples of now vs 5, 10, 15 years of past is absurd. 1. the expectations of future rates were different in each of past years 2. Relative dominance of platform cos were diff in past 3. Expectations in anti-trust actions were different 4. market weighted composite ROIC, Growth etc of index are higher now and hence justify higher multiples.

I wish 20 years ago I had the right temperament and knew how to value high growth stocks. also wish I had joined “Corner of growth stocks forum”

53. I came to US 25 years ago with $100 in my pocket. All life's trials and tribulations notwithstanding, I do feel lucky and have a lot to thank for. There's nothing like pursuing your dreams and getting paid for it.

What prevents Joe 6Pack Jr. to save in BTC and spend it using layer 2 networks using some app? Why does he need the $20 bill? We will most likely end up with 2 parallel systems. Govt using CBDC or $ to tax/spend, Treasury to issue debt and Fed to do FOMC activities. This will be the inflating one and rest will use Crypto/Layer2.

It is because of the nature of the human mind to perceive transient prices as permanent. The fixation on HWM is real. Investors feel robbed of any $ that is below that high water mark. My other pet peeve is, many won't invest in the market when it is all time high and want to wait for the pull back. When the pull back comes, they panic or wait for some more pull back. There is a huge demand for knowing short term market directions and no wonder market prognosticators have a thriving business.

The only logical/rational outcome to Israel conflict is that we need Israel & Palestine to exist as independent countries with peace. Every single person/entity/country that is opposing this outcome (it may take a while for Palestine to get that independence) has to be neutralized.

An interesting parallel. Sri Lanka (majority Sinhalese) was treating Tamils as 2nd class citizens. This spawned quite a few political org in the north and it got support from Indian state of Tamilnadu (yours truly is from this place). Most of these groups were moderates and had widespread support of the people. There was no improvement in the plight of Tamils. Soon the frustration created a ruthlessly violent group called LTTE run by Prabakaran. First thing he did was to kill all opposition moderate leaders. He took total control of the movement. He basically killed more Tamils than Sinhalese. Soon India came in with peace keeping mission and this pissed off Prabakaran. He killed Rajiv Gandhi. Eventually Prabakaran got killed after a decade of civil war and LTTE is basically dead. In any conflict, the most ruthless group has to either gain power and maybe turn moderate or should get killed. Even in WW2, the most violent folks in power (Axis powers) got eliminated and we got peace. In USSR, the violent Stalin consolidated power and there was some relative peace. Only a total war can eliminate the violent group. There is no easy way out.

Everyone is focused on inflation picture. The unemp side is slowly getting uglier. Af. Am. unemp is a canary in the coal mine. It is trending upwards https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LNS14000006 The other indicator is "temp help". This is trending down solidly. Leading causes of inflation are housing & car insurance right now. These two are the most lagging ones too (As per Siegel). There's a good chance that politicians will ramp up pressure on Fed once unemp. goes higher.

@thowed sorry my post wasn't directed at you. It was a general comment. I've several intelligent friends who get carried away by the "dollar collapse", "US in decline" crap and make sub-optimal portfolio allocation decisions. Next theme is, "Markets have gone up too much, it has to drop". I know many who were in cash last several years and missed all the upside. What most don't understand is, with monetary inflation running between 8-10%, the stocks are poised to absorb that and go up. Why should markets drop precipitously when you've positive GDP growth, net immigration, productivity and dropping inflation? Last but not the least - Stagnation/lost decade etc. Many countries experience this. So it is natural to apply this theme to US. Where is it now? The US politicians may appear to be like doddering old fools who bicker always. Look at their actions to bring back manufacturing, bank regulations, energy independence etc.

If I had a penny for everytime someone predicted a downfall for US, I would be a multi-millionaire. Most people lack imagination on understanding as to why US is great. US has its flaws and chickens haven't come home to roost for fiscal deficit crisis. Even when this crisis erupts, you may have runaway inflation for a decade and then they'll fix stuff and move on. Still capital and people flow to this country. Now they are the unmatched world superpower. They lead the world in technology, biotech & numerous other fields. I remember attending the 2006 annual berkie meeting and everyone carried a book "Collapse of the dollar". Well, nothing happened. One thing is clear, there is a huge cottage industry that makes money selling the gloom/doom prediction. You can bet your last $ that this industry will thrive no matter what (the Granthams/Hussmans et al). Most of political stuff that media overplays is just noise. The cultural issues are just fluff. The divisions we see are just superficial in economic terms. The MSM knows how to make $ off of it.

It is amazing to watch the technology guys slowly challenge inefficient systems and vested interests. They blew up traditional media, disintermediated several industries, leveled the playing field for knowledge acquisition, search etc. And finally threaten the power of Fed/Banks to inflate at will.