Parsad

Equity/stock investments will fluctuate, but it will be nice to see how much recurring interest income they are generating now. They must have put more money into even higher yielding bonds. It will be interesting to see the insurance losses for the two storms and is insurance still powering through. Cheers!

I know some of you are hardcore fishermen. This guy has been cheating by putting lead weights into the fish he caught for competitions. The reaction from other fishermen, while warranted, is pretty funny! Cheers! https://ca.sports.yahoo.com/watch-angry-mob-anglers-assail-130154804.html

A changing of the guards as India starts to see manufacturing and services slowly shift from China to India? Cheers! https://finance.yahoo.com/news/china-5-trillion-rout-creates-010000495.html

Congress again cannot stop themselves from engorging in ill-gotten gains. Insider trading does not exist for them! Cheers! https://finance.yahoo.com/news/congress-misses-yet-another-deadline-to-rein-in-lawmakers-lucrative-stock-trades-205926295.html

https://www.yahoo.com/news/florida-reporter-wraps-mic-condom-003446955.html The act and explanation is funny enough, but go down to the "Comments" section where all the hilarity ensues! Cheers!

Nephew I believe. He's Sam A. Antar...the criminal CPA was Sam E. Antar. All shitbags! Cheers!

That's nuts! And are they going to be paying taxes on that 40% additional income? Cheers!

When I was a kid, restaurants (even McDonalds or A&W) were a treat for us. Full-service restaurant dining was a once a month (if that) experience...usually only on special occasions. Today, I take my niece and nephew out to Whitespot probably once a week, plus a fancy dinner at least twice a month. It's still nice, but loses some of the cachet of that "special occasion" experience. The food tastes better if you go less. Then you have things like DoorDash or Ubereats...now you don't even have to leave your house to spend a small fortune on fancy dining. They'll send it to you house cold and in plastic containers at any time with a ton of additional fees...so much for saving the planet! Cheers!

Don't forget the inflation on tipping now too! Frickin' starts at 18% and 20% is normal now. What do you tip for bad service? 15%. Sheesh! Cheers!

Not straight line. FFH has about $56B of insurance portfolio assets...so a $600M hit would be around 2%. BRK has about $450B in insurance portfolio assets...so a $3.6B hit would be around 0.8%. FFH could withstand a 9.0 earthquake in Los Angeles and a 50% drop in the stock market in the same year. BRK could withstand losses even greater than that. Cheers!

Other way around. FFH 1% and BRK probably 6%. If a $60B loss, FFH would be hit with $600M or so and BRK would be hit with a $3.6B loss or so. Cheers!

You know we worry too much about these things in the short-term, but they really mean little over the long-run. I'm 53 and this is probably the 9th recession I've experienced in my lifetime. And there have been some doozies...1973-1975; 1980-1981; 1990-1991; 2008-2009; 2020. If you are overleveraged, carrying variable rate debt, have job insecurity, no savings...yeah you are fucked! If you are like probably most people on this message board...you tighten the belt a little, fret about the volatility of your investments and discuss it incessantly on here! But at the end of the day, you will still be in the top 5% of income earners and wealth! So that second SUV or Porsche will have to wait. You'll shop at Costco and Target instead of Whole Foods. The villa in Tuscany will be a beautiful cottage in Maine. You will have to fly premium economy instead of business. Your children won't get to upgrade from Apple iPhone 13 to Apple iPhone 14 till next year. Christmas will be a one week ski trip instead of two! I mean these are the problems people on here will be facing. The real problem is government services may be cut back with high deficits and debt. Wait times for services will be longer. More people will need the help of food banks. More kids will be hungry when they go to school...breaks my fucking heart thinking about that! More homeless, less help for those that need assistance. Higher taxes including the middle class. More class warfare. The usual negative stories in the media and partisan politics! But at the end of the day, the recession will come and go. People will again overleverage themselves in the next cycle...live paycheck to paycheck...overindulge themselves...etc. That's just life! Cheers!

Fairfax is in much better financial position to withstand hurricane losses than it was in previous large scale hurricane catastrophes like Andrew. Fairfax will incur about a 0.75-1% loss, while someone like Berkshire will probably incur a 5-8% loss. Also, as tragic as Ian will be, this will only bode well for a continued hard market in reinsurance. Premium pricing was expected to be strong through 2023, but with Ian and other potential losses this year, the hard market will likely continue into 2024 as well. Cheers!

Those frenched racks of lamb tied together would make a beautiful crown roast at Christmas! Especially if you are tired of turkey every year. Cheers!

Yes, in the short term bonds have collapsed, but that's now made for a great investment opportunity, not only for small investors, but institutions that were craving more interest income. Someone like Fairfax or a senior citizen was getting 1% if they were lucky in January...now you can easily get 3-4%...even 5% interest income. Corporate and junk bond yields also have to rise, so investors will be getting even more interest income going forward. Long-term yield from the stock market has improved with lower valuations...dividend payouts are higher. Better opportunities than just holding cash. Cheers!

Theoretically the higher rates have forced a reduction in employment demand in some sectors. It also should have reduced consumption to a certain level. But we've rarely seen governments get it just right and they've often overshot...that's the risk. That they push employers too fast in cutting staff or consumer consumption completely falls off. A strong U.S. dollar has generally bode well for the U.S. economy. Cheers!

Europe's valuation is lower because their pain is going to be significant. I would not be surprised to see 2-3 more troubled countries in Europe like the PIGS we saw in the past that could jeopardize the Euro. I would imagine China has finally seen its day of reckoning in the real estate sector...Japan will see an exodus of capital or rising rates that could jeopardize its future...and Russia still creating issues. Might see a couple of failures in South America as well. The other side of this is that global economic crisis leads to extreme political views...either right or left! As if things weren't shitty enough! Cheers!

Markets tend to correct well ahead of the earnings turn down...so much of that is baked in already. Will there be further pain...most likely. To the depths of 2002 or 2009? I don't think nearly as bad. The reason being that much of the excess overvaluation has corrected. We also aren't facing institutional failures like in 2008/2009. U.S. mid-cap/large-cap corporations are probably the healthiest they've been heading into a downturn in history. So the primary adjustment to earnings and valuation is interest rate and inflationary pressure...not poorly operating or financially unsound companies. I was 60% cash in November 2021...now I'm 90% invested in quality companies that I find are well undervalued. Cheers!

The global housing correction will be interesting to watch. You are right...the U.S. housing market will get hit, but will probably be better off than the rest of the world. U.S. banks and mortgage lenders were starting to get foolish, but not even close to the stupid things they were doing in 2007. U.S. banks are also in a much better position, have excess capital to absorb losses and will be watched by regulators that they are maintaining excess capital. Cheers!

Investors see opportunity. I don't think you'll see a hands up capitulation like we saw in February 2009. We've seen very few days where markets have dropped 7% or more in this correction (I believe only one), unlike 2008/2009...I think we saw at least 6 days of a 7% correction or more. This is a slow grinding correction like 2000-2002. You'll probably have another leg down in the next quarter. Cheers!

There's probably more pain to come. Interest rate hikes have a delayed effect, so we don't know how much the economy is slowing down in real time. We also get food inflationary pressure every September/October. But overall, I would say about 60-70% of the pain has been inflicted. And the market may tread sideways for some time until inflation is tempered. I don't think we will see a panic like 2008/2009...but a more prolonged, slow downtrend like 2000-2002. At that time, tech stocks as well as the broad market were way overpriced. While the market was overpriced this time around, the overall P/E was inflated by hugely overpriced sectors (new tech, meme stocks, crypto, SPACs, etc). Those stocks have already suffered a rapid 60-90% decline...the overall market is now at fair value or better. If it goes down another 15% or so, it will be cheap with where rates are today. I also expect some easing in rates later next year as the global economy feels the pain! Cheers!

+1! Cheers!

The United States is an import country...not an export country. You will get a recession...a global recession...but it will be much more painful for the rest of the world than the U.S. The U.S. can now import at lower cost with a stronger dollar...inflation has an impact, but it will be less painful here...although the papers will cry bloody murder! Yes, real asset prices are dropping...that's a good thing for those that were sitting on cash. There was also a lot of cash sitting on the sides held by institutions and investors. That will now be put to use as asset prices become more enticing. This is the end of a cheap credit cycle...one of the cheapest in global history. The excesses are now being wrung out of the system to make room for a much healthier system for the long-run. The patient is now on a treadmill again...steak and lobster is off the menu! Cheers!

See Judge break Ruth's record? Will it be tonight? Cheers!

That's going to at least 5.5...maybe 6-6.5 if things aren't slowing. Cheers!