Parsad

I don't think you really know what you are talking about. Forget trust...Francis would give his left nut to Prem if Prem requested it. I know...because I know both Prem and Francis very well! Francis bought 20,000 shares of Fairfax at $3 when Prem bought the company. Francis has never sold a share. There are two things going on here: You have an economic environment that investors have to be very careful in. Fairfax's $100 per share in income is not certain outside of next year based on a 1.6 year average duration of the bond portfolio...and that's with an average catastrophe year in 2023. Prem has always said that the priorities in order are...being financially sound, growing the insurance business in a hard market and then buybacks if the stock is undervalued. He's done just that over the last 4 years, retiring roughly 15% of the stock plus buying up another 8% through the total return swaps. In essence, he's retired 23% of the stock in four years. He probably will have retired 30% of the float by the time the market values the stock where it doesn't make sense to buy more, as it would not be accretive to intrinsic value. I would also give my left nut to Prem if he asked, and I haven't bought any more Fairfax since the beginning of the pandemic when I put 60% of my portfolio in FFH...trust issues?! While the stock is cheap here, it isn't dirt cheap as some of you think. The market is also offering some very interesting alternatives if you are a distressed investor...including in the bond market where you could get some equity like returns going forward with none of the risk. So while I understand your pain as a long-term shareholder of FFH, I think it's crazy to chalk it up to trust issues. Shareholders will be rewarded soon...patience is required...it's coming. Cheers!

+1! You can see exactly where the spikes were during Covid waves. During those waves, hospitals generally told people don't come to Emergency unless it is Covid-related. People who normally would have seen their physician for issues outside of Covid cancelled their appointments. So many surgeries, diagnostic exams, routine checkups, specialist appointments were delayed or cancelled altogether. As Sharper says...delayed diagnosis, delayed surgeries, delayed checkups...all led to excess deaths and probably delayed deaths because of delayed diagnosis or treatment into 2022 and 2023. Cheers!

Down 5% from year-end and 10% from peak. Heavy in Fairfax and mature tech, with some losses in tech offset by gains elsewhere. Pain scale...maybe 3...been here and done this a few times now. Around 5% cash left and expect to be fully invested in the next couple of weeks if things persist as is. I'm always restless when markets are like this. Like a kid waiting for Christmas morning. I go to bed really late because I'm reading, and then wake up after just a few hours of sleep to see what is happening in the markets and put any orders in. Cheers!

This happens more than you think. Especially if you visit Omaha or Bentonville for AGM's! I'll tell you a story about my first BRK AGM in 2001. I didn't really know anyone then, so I sat by myself and there was this old lady next to me. Very nice...she was knitting! I asked if anyone was sitting in the chair next to her? She said "No, no, no." And I sat down and chatted. During the meeting, she would pull out one of those 99 cent ring notebooks that would fit in your shirt pocket, an HB pencil...she would lick the tip and then start writing every time she heard something interesting from Warren or Charlie. Then she would go back to knitting. At the lunch break, I got myself a box lunch, and she pulled out her little brown bag lunch...sandwich, apple, juice box. We talked about Berkshire and Buffett. Some ways into lunch, I finally asked her some questions about herself: Me: "So do you come to the meeting every year?" Lady: "Yes, yes...every year." Me: "Have you owned Berkshire shares a long time?" Lady: "Oh, yes! My husband bought them many years ago, and then when he passed away, I started coming to the meetings." After 20 minutes or so of back and forth banter, I finally found out she had like 500 A shares or about $30M in 2001. Today, if they are still in the family, they would be $215M. She told me they had never sold a share...and then she went back to knitting! Cheers!

$875-900 CDN is where it should be now...in this market. If they can take advantage of the downturn in bonds and equities, and any acquisition opportunities in the next year or two, it should be at $1,100 CDN within 2 years. But Mr. Market always is either overly pessimistic or overly optimistic on Fairfax...rarely in the middle. Cheers!

Hey Greg, make sure you store it somewhere dark...not in any light. Otherwise you lose the lavender color. I've got a couple of bottles in my liquor cabinet, but one out on display with some other bottles on the top of the cabinet. The one outside went clear after a few months, while the others still have that great color. Cheers!

Agree! Not sure this applies to the rest of the world. Cheers!

I never owned any tech other than Overstock.com and Apple briefly for two years. But today, about half my portfolio is now big-name tech. I'm down about 2% YTD. Buy when others are fearful! Cheers!

Yeah, there is no way they are selling BIAL unless it is some really stupid offer. The airport is magnificent, but they also have like 460 acres of land around BIAL that they can develop over time. BIAL is a long, long-term holding as the passenger growth is like 25-35% a year. Cheers!

You’re looking at one quarter or one year. That’s what drives markets to do irrational things…like META’s current valuation. The assumption is that META will neither grow again, nor generate positive free cash. Cheers!

Fully agree! Tomorrow morning, you'll essentially be able to buy a global company, with $120B in revenues, $30B in annual profit, $40B in cash/securities, $9B in debt, buying back $3-6B of shares a quarter, with 3B users worldwide for a single digit P/E! Cheers!

It seems like many want buybacks, but we're in the midst of a massive correction in the credit markets. That is usually when Fairfax makes some of their best investments in convertible debt placements. It would be remiss to prioritize buybacks, if other opportunities present themselves that would potentially be far more rewarding. Fairfax should be looking for the best opportunity out there. If they can't find any, then they should buy back stock or distribute the capital. But if markets offer great investments, buybacks would have to take a back seat. That's just common sense. Cheers!

Canadian investors pulled huge amounts of money from equity and bond mutual funds in June & September, while moving funds to money market funds. https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/news/investors-pull-eye-popping-9-b-from-mutual-funds-in-september-191928690.html And I was buying tons in June & September. God, I owe a hell of a lot to Buffett and Ben Graham! Cheers!

Probably correct. But average means that the more well-to-do suffered less in losses, while the median (the majority and lower net worth) got hit on the head so hard, that they're talking out of their fly now. They'll go back to blowing their money elsewhere or just plain spend it on something that makes them happy. Cheers!

That's RV Life, not Van Life! You've got a toilet and shower in that RV most likely at $100K. The Van guy may have a cartridge compost toilet that stinks up the van and showers at any rest stop or beach washroom he can find. I doubt it's very exciting knowing you just took a dump next to your bed or little kitchen in a van...down by the river! Cheers!

The one thing I've learned is that there are two different components to what the market sees: - Short-term dynamics - changes to interest rates, growth, earning reports, developments, news, speculation, politics, etc - Long-term dynamics - actual directional changes in policy, long-term crisis, debt, stability, bubbles, disruption, etc. Short-term dynamics run independent of long-term dynamics. Just because market prices are high, doesn't mean they will correct themselves short-term. A war in Ukraine is a short-term issue, but may escalate into a long-term crisis. Debt burdens can have lasting long-term effects and changes, but may be ignored for years before they come to the fore...not unlike other bubbles. So while market prices may not recede immediately to risk-free comparable valuations, long-term they probably will...via a drop in market prices or growth in earnings. These short-term fluctuations in between can be attacked opportunistically, or they can be ignored based on an investor's decisions on the long-term. Neither is necessarily right, neither is necessarily wrong. Just different and different choices of accepted risk! It may mean investor's miss short-term opportunities where markets drop dramatically and then recover quickly, even though they have not returned to realistic valuations. It may mean that those that seek opportunity could lose capital long-term as markets do return to proper valuations. To steal a phrase more appropriate here, than on the actual book or deserving of the author: That is the art of the deal! Cheers!

Well, this is a long-time coming and expected. Cheers! https://www.ft.com/content/934a6f36-4496-42d2-9132-66f688e71048?ftcamp=traffic/partner/feed_headline/us_yahoo/auddev

Not sure how JPM calculated this, nor how much of the retail portfolio mimics the general public, but apparently U.S. retail investor portfolios have lost 44% year to date ending October 18th due to their exposure in growth stocks. I'm guessing meme, crypto, CBD, SPAC and new economy stocks primarily...or all of the bubble areas! Way to go brokers and advisors! Cheers! https://www.ft.com/content/406f65f9-8cf3-416f-9171-ea7b8da0348b?ftcamp=traffic/partner/feed_headline/us_yahoo/auddev

...investors in crypto, meme stocks, van lifers, etc. You can sense the bottom coming when every genius and lifestyle guru from the last 5 years starts whining and bitching! Cheers! https://finance.yahoo.com/news/2022-splash-cold-water-crypto-103000944.html

Not much older than you at 52, but I'll try to relate some of what I'm going through. If you find that you love the technical work you do, don't let age constrain you. Like a good athlete, you'll know when your skills are truly diminished. If you think that there are other things you want to explore, then this is probably the time to do it. Theoretically, you'll live to 80 or so...so this is essentially the 2nd 30 year period you will get after reaching adulthood. If you can afford it financially, go for it! You don't have kids...your wife at this point has her own interests and friendships...nothing is holding you back. In terms of when it was easier to make money...it's never been easy! When you are younger, you have less to compound and it takes forever to save it. When you are older, the amount compounds faster, but the time seems far less to grow it. The economy has always been volatile, but opportunities always do present themselves. Patience is what is needed. Lastly, something you didn't ask about, but I would recommend you consider more and more...your health. My last few years have been very challenging. When we work hard, we always take our health for granted, and ignore the time that needs to be allocated to maintain it. Health deterioration can come fast and furiously, beating you up faster than you would have ever imagined. So prioritize it if you want to hit that 80 mark! Cheers!

Honestly...hanging around and playing with my niece and nephew. No matter how bad I feel or crappy the day, they always pull me out of it. After that in order...looking for investment ideas...reading...watching hockey and football...travelling...hanging out with family and friends at a restaurant...swimming. Cheers!

Yes, that is possible. I actually think the rest of the world might be in 73-74...the U.S., less so. I would recommend that those that are overly concerned, watch old episodes of "All in the Family". You'll see some of the day to day concerns that people were tackling back then, how they coped with it, including inflation, income inequity, employment, war, politics, etc. Yet, a few years later, the U.S. entered one of the great bull markets in history from 1982 to 1990. Good times, bad times, they all come and go! Cheers!

I remember when LotsofCoke bought tons of Marvel for like $2 and $4 for his accounts and his children's accounts. No one at the time could understand what he saw and how anyone would monetize all of the Marvel assets properly. Lo and behold, those assets make up the bulk of theatre revenues every year for the last decade. He was also the one who told me to come to Omaha back in 2000. If I had not gone there, hung out with LotsofCoke and met Buffett, COBF would not be around today! Thanks John...where ever you are and what ever you are doing these days! Cheers!

Greg, I agree that the interest rate hikes are having some effect on the goods and service side. But the FED will act on overall inflation...so they will probably continue to be proactive until they see a broad decline in inflation. Food, energy, etc are still under inflationary pressures. It will end eventually, but will probably be longer than you expect, but shorter than most others expect. Cheers!

You can't compare '08 to today. You had massive leverage from MBS and CDS that precipitated the financial system collapse...100-1 asset to equity leverage in some cases. You don't have that today and the banks have excess capital to absorb normal operating losses from rising rates. You also don't have Jumbo ARM mortgages in the magnitude we saw back then. Combine that with equity in homes, cash on the books for corporations, they will absorb some of the current expected losses fairly well. Doesn't mean operating earnings won't be hurt, but comparing it to '08 is not an apples to apples comparison. The difference here will be prolonged belt tightening to absorb inflationary pressures and higher interest rates for the average consumer...when they shop, when they buy cars, when they travel, when they renew their mortgage, when they carry revolving debt, etc. Cheers!