Parsad

I'm not sure anyone said not to support Ukraine. The fear was that with too much support, it may just lead to a larger scale war engaging other European nations on both sides. Cheers!

The system is for defense purposes only...not to take out drone/rocket bases. My concern is you add the patriot missile defense system, and now Russia will look to unconventional weapons in the war. You could hope Putin may say..."Oh well, our rockets can't get in now, so we'll call a truce!", but that's not him. The war may become more volatile and dirty than it's already been! Cheers!

Not sure if I'm worried more or worried less: https://www.cnn.com/2022/12/13/politics/us-patriot-missile-defense-system-ukraine/index.html Cheers!

Don't quite agree with this. Agree that inflation is coming down. Don't agree that you can take out Food and Energy. It's like people using EBITDA all the time. Not completely accurate in showing what is going on with consumers. Just like FED was slow in noticing inflation, this would give the opposite inaccurate picture. Cheers!

You knew it was coming! https://finance.yahoo.com/news/ftx-founder-sam-bankman-fried-arrested-bahamas-001141970.html https://www.thestreet.com/investing/cryptocurrency/crypto-problems-grow-binance-might-face-charges?puc=yahoo&cm_ven=YAHOO Cheers!

Russia will win this thing if the U.S. and allies concede to dumbass deals like this: https://ca.sports.yahoo.com/dea-agent-who-helped-put-viktor-bout-behind-bars-slams-brittney-griner-swap-we-couldnt-even-get-two-people-for-the-worlds-most-notorious-weapons-trafficker-220232108.html Why they did this deal I'll never understand! Cheers!

Sixty-Two is majority controlled by Prem and his family. Originally it was comprised of some other outside investors, including Robbert Hartogg...who was one of the largest investors in Fairfax for many years alongside the Watsa Family, and a mentor/advisor to Prem. Not sure what happened after Robbert passed away, but even then Prem and his family controlled more than 60% of Sixty-Two. Cheers!

Haha! Not that I think natural gas is the long-term solution...just better than coal and oil. Cheers!

Odds of a business making it to 6th generation is 500-1...so within the parameter I stated of "less than 1/10th of 1% of all businesses ever in existence." Pretty damn hard to get there...but some have. https://abcnews.go.com/Business/families-run-companies-100-years/story?id=17285711 Cheers!

Essentially, Fairfax is built to withstand a one in 250 year event. Now a 9.0 earthquake in the Cascadian subduction region happens once every 500-600 years or so. And it's been about 325 years since the last one. So on that spectrum...a 9.0 earthquake hitting Seattle or Vancouver is getting more and more likely to happen. I don't care who the actuary is, you cannot get a reasonable estimate of that risk for any policy that is being underwritten. So either you better cap that loss, or you don't write that policy. As remote as that possibility is, that's why I want to sleep soundly at night, and I subsequently reduced my FFH exposure from nearly 70% to 30%. Now when FFH was at nearly half of the current price, you had a massive margin of safety...so taking a 35% position and watching it grow to nearly 70% was risk-reward adjusted. At nearly $800 CDN per share, 30% is just right for me! Cheers!

Yes, that is probably correct. You are talking about 6-12 generations (250-500 years)...not sure anyone can predict the existence of ANY business past 6 generations. I would imagine less than 1/10th of 1% of all businesses ever in existence have made it 6 generations or better. Cheers!

Correct. But as Thrifty stated, there would be portfolio losses from markets correcting...other types of losses as well, like Worker's Comp, etc that normally wouldn't be as large in a normal catastrophe where people are back at work a week later. Prem once stated that FFH can withstand a market crash of 50%, a 9.0 earthquake in Los Angeles (or equivalent) and a F5 Hurricane hitting Florida (or equivalent) in the same year. I would imagine that would do massive damage to FFH's book value, but it would survive nonetheless. Cheers!

FFH usually gets hit with about 0.8-1% of the total loss in any insured catastrophe. BRK usually gets hit with 5-8%. So if you imagine a 8.5 earthquake hitting Los Angeles, San Francisco, Seattle, Tokyo or even Vancouver , that could easily be a $800B-$1T insured loss...a once in 250-500 year event. 1% would be $8B for FFH...or $40B+ for BRK. BRK could easily survive that and would benefit from massive increases in premium pricing. An $8B loss for FFH is definitely survivable, but their ability to write business in a hard market would decrease massively. Even something much smaller and more likely, like we saw in 2001-2002...Hurricane Andrew and Hugo hitting the Gulf Coast & Florida back to back. Today that would be a $200-300B loss...or a $2B-3B hit to FFH today. So that could rock the stock price for reinsurers for a bit. Cheers!

I agree. But most changes in society's behavior usually starts with the annoying preening from progressives. Most of us change our behavior once it is forced upon us, guilted into it, or it simply becomes easy to do...think recycling, driving electric cars, emission testing, energy efficient appliances, heating with natural gas instead of coal or oil, reducing water consumption, reducing garbage, eating organic foods, better farming practices, etc. Maybe the revolver at times should be aimed at ourselves for being late to action! Cheers!

A debt becomes delinquent the day after you miss a payment. So late payments are delinquent. Cheers!

It's not always about agendas and politics. This one is from Bank of America...I would imagine the truth is relatively close to that. https://www.cbsnews.com/news/bank-of-america-consumer-report-energy/ Cheers!

He made a plea deal to implicate the Trump organization. So he's getting punished, but less than if he stayed silent and didn't disclose that Trump signed off on many of the benefits himself. Cheers!

Gas prices here in Vancouver have dropped by 1/3rd over the last few months. Literally dropping from $2.30 CDN a liter to $1.50 CDN a liter now. That matches up with the drop in U.S. barrel oil since March: https://www.cnn.com/2022/12/06/business/oil-prices-gas-russia-embargo/index.html Should continue to have a negative effect on inflationary pressure. Cheers!

And the hits keep on playing! Another shitbag getting their just desserts! https://www.cnn.com/2022/12/06/politics/trump-organization-fraud-trial-verdict/index.html Cheers!

1 in 6 American households are behind on utility bills! Cheers! https://finance.yahoo.com/news/expect-tsunami-shutoffs-20-million-173000860.html

Another twat who got what he deserved! Cheers! https://www.yahoo.com/news/avenatti-sentenced-14-years-california-203611572.html

Hi KFS, I would suggest keeping the position a size that let's you sleep comfortably at night. As well as FFH has done, it only takes one major catastrophe in Los Angeles or Tokyo to rock all reinsurers. While that is a remote possibility, it is still a possibility. FFH for me at times has gotten to be as big as your position, if not bigger on a couple of occasions. As it begins to approach intrinsic value, I always reduce enough of the position where I understand the upside, but am comfortable enough sleeping knowing the downside. It had grown to about 65% of my portfolio in the last few months, and now it is about 25-35% depending on the account. I'm very comfortable with that personally based on where it is now. Cheers!

If a Netherlands resident, who blackmailed a teenage girl online and she subsequently committed suicide, got 12 years in Canada, Alex Jones deserves nothing less. I believe the judgment was more to deter any future such behavior from others...thus the crazy numbers. What is the likelihood that wealthy media owners would behave in such a way again after this? Cheers!

Cheers!

https://www.cnn.com/2022/12/02/business/alex-jones-bankruptcy/index.html Cheers!