Parsad

Sorry, let me make this clearer: 30-Year Treasury yield is going to be at 4.5% soon. Present earnings yield on S&P500 is 4%. At 4.5% earnings yield, S&P500 P/E should be at 22...high-end, not conservative, no risk-premium. Add in 3% net from growth in GDP minus inflation...you get a 7.5% current yield for investors...again, high-end, not conservative, no risk premium or margin of safety. If an investor is aiming for a 12% return on equities, in lieu of risk with a margin of safety, then you would need an earnings yield for the S&P500 of 9% (12%-3%). 9% earnings yield is a P/E of 11 for the S&P500. Thus the median of those two (P/E 22 and P/E 11) would be relative fair value with some margin of safety...P/E of 16. Current S&P500 P/E is 25. So I could see markets correcting from 12% (P/E 22) to an extreme of 44% (P/E 11)...at a P/E of 16 you would see a 36% correction. Unless GDP is growing at a rate higher than average, I can't see how a P/E of 25 can be sustained...or interest rates fall significantly, which also seems unlikely presently. Cheers!

Buffett isn't worried at the moment just like he said in the 2018 letter about owning stocks rather than gold and not worrying about deficits and debt, but if you continue to accumulate debt relative to GDP, I can assure you he won't be voicing reassuring words of comfort as global investors in U.S. treasuries may start to look elsewhere. Cheers!

You had two market corrections, but the government balance sheet still has nearly $10T on its books that it didn't have 15 years ago. Sure, you could do it as long as possibly Japan has, but it's a ponzi. If and when markets and investors lose faith or find a far better alternative, it will be a day of reckoning. Cheers!

Stocks generally should be trading at a price that gives you a return equivalent to the risk-free rate. Risk free rate is going to be around 4.5% for the 30 year treasury. At a P/E of 16, stocks earnings yield is 4.5%. Add growth in GDP (historically will be around 5%) minus 2% inflation, which equals 3%. At a P/E of 16, stocks will give a 7.5% annualized return after inflation. Cheers!

Nice recap! Cheers!

If the 30 year bond is at 4.3% and rising, then how can stocks have a multiple of 25? Should be at P/E of around 16. Cheers!

Because of all of the influence by governments around the world. It's why the 2000 bubble was re-inflated not once but twice (2009 & 2020) without a proper correction. Government balance sheets grew massively, artificially suppressing interest rates to achieve 2% inflation. Now they can't do that anymore without significant consequences and interest rates are rising quickly as balance sheets are unwound and government spending slows. Cheers!

Growth in GDP and 20 years of lower interest rates helped. Doesn't mean you're going to see low interest rates in the next 20 years. Cheers!

Ok Paul. Frickin' yields on long-term treasuries have risen dramatically and you're telling me that's not how it works...at all! Whatever! Cheers!

If not tomorrow, shortly! As Viking has shown in his projections, the consistency of earnings over the next 2.5 years is pretty much written. You're looking at adding $130-140 USD to book every year in 2023, 2024 and 2025. I'm not sure anyone has a story like this! It's there...plain as day in everyone's face and the markets haven't fully recognized it yet! Cheers!

True. But if you have multiple downgrades, your cost of borrowing will increase significantly. Indebted people or indebted nations...makes no difference. Too much debt will eff you up! When Paulson and Geithner are both saying that the U.S. needs to get their fiscal house in order...maybe they should. And in my opinion, not just the U.S. Practically every Western country piled on the debt during the pandemic. Time to pay the piper! Cheers!

Book value should go over $900 USD by year-end. Looks like 1.2 times book would be $1,080 USD or close to $1,400 CDN. Cheers!

Great review of KW Viking! Cheers!

+1! For the record, I believe that other planets with intelligent life exist. It's just hard not to reconcile that with the sheer vastness of space and simply based on mathematics. But if you keep claiming smoke, I need to at least see the tiniest of sparks! Cheers!

There are immensely different measures of intelligence...some people on the autism spectrum would measure far higher than Elon Musk...there are geniuses in specific areas such as military, industrial, science, mathematics, etc...certain animals would be off the scales based on what their peer group would measure. So it's complete folly and nonsense to have these types of arguments. Cheers!

May have been the smoothest player to ever play football. He looked like it was effortless and he was just dancing with the ball. Explosive speed combined with uncanny ability to break your legs by faking you one way and going the other. Closest example in sports would be Connor McDavid in hockey today or Michael Jordan in his day...they could just do crazy things at full speed or flight! Cheers!

On a separate note...I met Johan Cruijff (Cruyff) when I was 10 years old. He was one of my favorite players and at that time he was playing for the LA Aztecs in the NASL. One of my Dad's old chemistry students, John McGrane, was now playing for the Aztec and arranged for us to go to the afterparty to meet the players. What a memory that was! Cheers!

Thanks Valueseek! My pleasure. Cheers!

But that's kind of the problem...classified or not, the public does not have the documents or evidence. I can tell you I saw a ghost, and there might be hundreds of documented proof of ghosts, but until it all comes out...we stay in the same spot we've always been...no evidence, no facts, can't accept it as truth. Cheers!

No, I got the heads up from a friend that it wasn't worth watching on IMAX unless you wanted to really see that 10 minute sequence on it. Cheers!

No worries. Not a big deal. Cheers!

Yeah, the actors were great, but the movie focused too much on Oppenheimer's life and persecution, than what most people expected...like the Manhattan Project! Huge press about watching it on IMAX, yet the sequences that would have been great in IMAX only made up maybe 10 minutes of the 3 hour movie! Cheers!

The problem is that the three guys, who do seem credible, said that they received information from various sources, but have no actual evidence. For example, one fellow said that a non-human UFO crashed and not only did the government recover the craft but biologics/tissue were recovered. But he has no evidence of this...it's based on the word of other people he's talked to. So I wouldn't blame the media too much. They covered it intensely when it first came out...in particular the videos by the Airforce pilots...but there is a huge dearth of actual evidence other than some of the visual material. Cheers!

Hi John, yeah I think you misunderstood. I took Whats message to be adding amusing quotes to COBF cups/merchandise. For example, "Cheers!" which is what I always end my messages with or maybe something from Greg like "Just buy stocks, God damit!" or Viking "Load up on Fairfax, because the window will close!", etc. He wasn't taking a jab at you or anything like that. Cheers!

Very unique style and voice. Never got to live up to her talent...politics, rants and her son's death shortened her career. Still managed 10 albums! Cheers!