sleepydragon

IBKR charged me $1 commission. Bought at 701 today

Bought Fairfax for the first time!

And he didn’t miss AAPL

Surprised to see VTS. Thrilled

I think you lose a few months of interest if redeem within 5 years. So you may want to wait for another few months.

It has been a long time since then that Buffett have found something that is more addictive (and growing too) than tobacco, and it is iphone.

When Rockefeller’s empire got disbanded, it’s many spin offs made shareholders much richer decades after he dies. Buffett has always been conservative, and bend backward to prevent the stock price from rising too fast. He doesn’t want to disappoint people and he doesn’t want to attract shareholders who won’t stay for long. if Buffett is gone, more likely or not the stock price will go higher , imo

my ex employer didn’t allow PA trading, but I didn’t have to sell any stocks I already held when I joined( I am not allowed to buy ). So before I joined I sold pretty much everything and moved almost all of my money into BRK. I outperformed SP index

(if I had bought all the stocks I sold, I would have outperformed my own holdings by massively margin. I guess I just found an alpha!)

sold RIVN (unfortunately the day before ER)

CKHUY / 0001.HK

nice post.

not expert in oil, but the way I heard it, I think WEB is saying the shale oil can add pressure to oil price only in the short term, because each well's life is short, but in longer term, the technology is quite sophisticated (drill horizontally etc) to get more oils - so in essence in the longer term it's capital intensive and needs a lot of special technologies for the shale to add more oil to the market in a stable fashion.

amazing Munger is still so sharp. He doesn't miss a single word and his voice is very strong. Still very healthy. I am going to buy some sea's candy.

I thought what he said about TSMC was “because of a few reasons “ - it may not just be geopolitical. Might be inflation/capx, currency risk, and geopolitical also, it feels like to me Buffett is going to buy more ATVI but he and Munger is not saying more.. Typtically M&A funds are forced to sell failed arb deals within a specified period( But I have no idea if they have sold or not yet).

I decided to watch the 2022 video as a warm up instead

Where is everyone watching the Annual Meeting 2023 online today? CNBC has it but it doesn't start until 9:45am. Yahoo Finance no longer has the video/pre-show etc..?

when Russia invaded Ukraine, they just did it suddenly. I think the fact China is making all these noises such as war games in fact demonstrates they don’t want the war. They hope the scare tactic would work. Invading Taiwan will extremely costly and even if China occupies Taiwan they just get more unrest population to manage, which might seriously leads to the more troubles for CCP leadership.

in my opinion, if Taiwan chose to go independent, likely China will invade. That's why Xi had the support of the elders in CCP to become leader. Only he's willing to do it. But I think most Taiwanese don't care about going independent. The most affluent Taiwanese immigrated from mainland and has deep business connection with china. Some of the younger Taiwanese (the liberals) always wanted to go independent. But most Taiwanese won't want to go to war because of this.

I don't think things are that bad. Ray Dalio has personal friendship with some of the highest level officials in China. I feel what he wrote above is largely on behalf of these high ranking Chinese official whom he talked with while he was in China. This is the message that China want to get across. Now, if you imagine these are not the words from Ray Dalio, but from people like Liu He, it's seems to me China is trying to de-escalate through un-official channel.

Ray Dalio just came from from his trip china, and wrote this: (He's very connected to very high level Chinese officials) https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/what-i-think-going-1-china-us-relations-2-other-countries-ray-dalio/

This is crazy. Chinese stocks must be one of the most hated investments now. or someone is selling regardless of the price—imo feel like some brokers have a big short put position and need to hedge regardless of the price. reminds me in 2008 how hated moody’s were and even Buffett sold some.

WRB

Bought CASH