james22

Semiconductors: China Is Fucked https://www.battleswarmblog.com/?p=52980

PLTR

> Chevron CEO Mike Wirth warned that the premature transition to green energy is already having a major impact on Europe. > The oil company chief noted that the global energy crisis had been exacerbated by Western governments "doubling down" on green energy policies. > "The reality is, [fossil fuel] is what runs the world today. It's going to run the world tomorrow and five years from now, 10 years from now, 20 years from now,” Wirth explained. https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/Chevron-CEO-Blames-Climate-Policies-For-Global-Energy-Crisis.html

Seems he's saying there's no better time: “There’s just very few of us left,” he said, adding that most market participants these days are not trained or experienced in value investing, or have shifted to passive or quantitative investing. Fewer players means there’s no one to notice what’s happening to these companies and “nobody knows what anything is worth,” Einhorn said. “So there’s an enormous number of companies that are dramatically mis-valued in ways that we haven’t seen before.”

Russia has one advantage during the shooting war: losses incurred are to his own rebellious minorities. And three during after that: 1. an achievable goal (pacification vs winning over hearts and minds), 2. experienced secret police/tactics (vs American soldiers unprepared to play at tribal politics), and 3. the ability to forcibly relocate the rebellious to Siberia

Saudis have had a working relationship with the US since 1933. The leadership has been educated in the US. Most in leadership have been mentored by Americans. They would much prefer to do business with the US than Russia or China. But the US is a terribly unreliable ally, every four to eight years changing direction.

When and where did you spend time in the Middle East, Xerxes? Maybe we know each other.

US oil industry MOCKS Biden after OPEC announced production cuts: Energy groups say administration now has no choice but to come 'crawling back' to domestic producers * US oil industry trade groups lashed out at the White House after OPEC cutbacks * With gas already painfully high, OPEC is slashing output by 2M barrels per day * 'Life comes at you pretty fast,' tweeted the US Oil and Gas Association * US producers say the Biden administration has smothered domestic production * Now they say the White House has no choice but to boost output in the US https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-11285801/US-oil-industry-says-Biden-boost-domestic-output-OPEC-cuts.html

If only actors were rational. Who benefits from the West's suicidal energy policy (beside "the worse, the better" types)?

Exactly.

The rapid economic collapse that Britain is facing is simply an accelerated version of what the whole of Europe is about to go through; unsustainable borrowing to fund the gap between high energy prices and what households can actually afford. With the sabotage of the Nord Stream pipeline, there is now no feasible way back. Europe can no longer physically import Russian gas – prices will remain high until Europe builds more energy capacity, which could take years. What is likely to come of this? High energy prices will render European manufacturing uncompetitive. European manufacturers will be forced to pass through the higher energy costs in the form of higher prices and consumers will find it cheaper to buy products from countries with normal energy prices. https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/europe-s-descent-into-deindustrialisation

Following up: https://thelawdogfiles.com/2022/10/nordstream-ii-electric-instapundit.html

I like to think you're right, no_free_lunch. Because: no free lunch, Germany.

“So, LawDog,” I hear you say, “What do you think happened?” Honestly, I suspect someone in the Russian government pinged Gazprom, and said, “The EU is about to have a cold winter. make sure those pipelines sodding well work, so we can sell someone natural gas at massively increased prices.” So, Somebody In Charge started running checks — and came up with hydrate slurry in both pipelines. After the running in circles, hyperventilating, and shrieking of curse-words stopped, somebody started trying to remediate both lines. Of course they didn’t tell folks down stream — no Russian want to look weak, and besides, there’s been a nasty uptick in failed Russian oligarchs getting accidentally defenestrated — they just unilaterally tried to Fix Things. It’s methane hydrate. Trust me, if there’s a hydrate plug, there’s more than one. With both pipes having no movement for months, if not a year, there were a metric butt-ton of hydrate plugs, slurry, and rime in both pipelines. The Fixing of Things went bad. One went Paws Up, and they started trying to stop the other — but pressurisation (both ways) is a weeks-long process, and the second went bad, too. It happens. https://thelawdogfiles.com/2022/09/nordstream.html

Ok, the Nord pipeline incidents. Sigh. I shouldn’t do this, but … I call them “incidents” for a reason. I grew up in overseas oilfields. I try to, by training, observe everything from as objectively neutral a viewpoint as possible. In my experience when anything involving energy-industry hydrocarbons explodes … well, sabotage isn’t the first thing that comes to mind. And honestly, when it comes to a pipeline running natural gas under Russian (non)maintenance, an explosion means that it’s Tuesday. Or Friday. Or another day of the week ending in “y”. ... Am I saying that there is no way that these incidents could possibly be the result of deliberate direct action? No. That area is too full of idiots — HOWEVER: It’s hundreds of millions of cubic metres of extremely flammable — nay, explosive — gaseous hydrocarbons being transported by Russians, and subject to Russian maintenance. And I’m here to tell you — Russian maintenance under the current oligarchy system isn’t any better than it was under the Soviet system. It blew up. Until I see evidence of bad actions, I’m going to shrug and say, “Damn. Must have been a day ending in “y”. https://thelawdogfiles.com/2022/09/nordstream.html

Disappointingly little.

If history is any guide, Russia will again be fighting both their Ukrainian foes and the vodka bottle. https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2022/09/28/putins-military-draft-is-unpopular-so-what-00059145

Hidden paragraph of Putin's decree allows 1 million Russians to be mobilised https://news.yahoo.com/hidden-paragraph-putins-decree-allows-115625603.html

Vladimir Putin’s decision to call up 300,000 men to fight in his invasion of Ukraine is hitting two of the battered Russian economy’s weak spots. The order takes about one in a hundred of the country’s active workers from their jobs to send to the front when record-low unemployment – combined with the exodus of Russians fleeing the country to avoid the mobilization – means there are few candidates to replace them. And it’s likely to batter Russians’ already-fragile finances, leaving some draftees’ families short of cash. https://news.yahoo.com/putin-mobilization-hits-russia-economy-095203471.html

Seriously greedy as well?

OXY below $60, should we assume BRK is buying again?

One can hope.

Untrained men don't pose much of a threat to anyone.