Luke 532

Hamish Hume audio on recent court ruling... https://www.dropbox.com/s/2zi3mnvvr013slj/Hamish%2020170227.m4a?dl=0

I understand your frustration with one court (Perry) being partially affirmed (arguably the part that impacts pref shares the least), but keep in mind that there are many cases still pending... Delaware, Sweeney, Collins, etc. With that said, I totally can understand why somebody would want to sell a portion of their holdings given the uncertainty. Markets, and people make up the markets, mostly hate uncertainty. I'm standing pat because I still really like the potential reward given the risk.

Yes, again I agree it's a ridiculous website. And I wouldn't even think about responding to the person that originally posted it if Jerome Corsi didn't have White House press credentials. But he does (as of 3 weeks ago). So he is going to risk losing those credentials by immediately reporting falsely that he received info from the White House? Couple that with the 11,000 docs hitting Trump's desk recently. Add to it that the leaked info is something that has been discussed previously by those following the situation closely. Fair point. Definitely respect your views and I personally think you've added a lot to this thread. I just think when tensions are high we can all tend to exaggerate reality. It would be wonderful if this had happened - I just am skeptical for what I think is good reason. Will watch closely. I agree we should be skeptical, as I am per the first thing I said in my first post regarding this "Doubt this is true..." It will be interesting to see if any other press brings it up. If not, then it's nothing.

Unless the docs show an e-mail saying "we'll use the GSE money to fund Obamacare."

Yes, again I agree it's a ridiculous website. And I wouldn't even think about responding to the person that originally posted it if Jerome Corsi didn't have White House press credentials. But he does (as of 3 weeks ago). So he is going to risk losing those credentials by immediately reporting falsely that he received info from the White House? Couple that with the 11,000 docs hitting Trump's desk recently. Add to it that the leaked info is something that has been discussed previously by those following the situation closely.

I think you're missing the point of why a White House leak is important. InfoWars is crazy, nobody is disputing that. The point is that quote that the White House has been leaking info to news outlets about Fannie profits being used to fund Obamacare. That's the big deal. If the White House is doing that (getting the stolen money narrative into the media...even if it's crazy media) then do we think they would also continue to accept stolen money from the GSE's? It doesn't matter if the White House is leaking to InfoWars, Fox News, CNN, or my barber. What does matter is the intent behind those leaks and that is a big deal. Capiche?

It's Spittler, not Splitter. And he has done excellent work the past few years on Fannie/Freddie. I suggest reading what he has written over the years if you haven't already.

I agree, he's a whack job. The 5 minutes I watched was the longest I've ever watched of the show. I hesitated big time posting this for that reason, but it's important to know if it turns out to be true. Reasons to think it might be true? Well, the theory that the 11,000 docs contained information connecting funding Obamacare with Fannie/Freddie profits has been talked about for a long time now... so it's not a new theory being pulled out of thin air. I wouldn't be surprised if Trump is leaking some of this info now that he has access to the 11,000 docs.

Can't believe we are quoting infowars on this site but I have to admit it's a good link. Too early to tell but this could be part of the narrative shift. I would watch for this to appear on breitbart. Doubt it's true, but... Check out @JohnDee78791547's Tweet: Trump friend, and InfoWars writer Jerome Corsi, has been receiving info from WH regarding theft of GSEs marked for ObamaCare #Fanniegate http://www.infowars.com/watch-alex-jones-show/ Look around 4 hour 55 minute point and that's where it starts. It claims that "the White House has been alerting other media in the last 3 days... White House saying 'hey, look at this!'... It's some heavy reading."

Can't believe we are quoting infowars on this site but I have to admit it's a good link. Too early to tell but this could be part of the narrative shift. I would watch for this to appear on breitbart. Doubt it's true, but... Check out @JohnDee78791547's Tweet: Trump friend, and InfoWars writer Jerome Corsi, has been receiving info from WH regarding theft of GSEs marked for ObamaCare #Fanniegate

Adam Spittler on Collins vs FHFA Collins vs FHFA – Total new wild card to the litigation, and extremely strong argument. $fnma $fmcc

I found these 3 comments interesting. Comments from Arkham on the following article: http://seekingalpha.com/article/4049825-gse-preferred-shareholders-win-remand-contract-claims 1st comment... People were focused on legal angle too much. Legalities didn't stop the original seizure in 2008 and legalities will not matter in the reversal. It's been a political trade all along. They couldn't execute receivership, because there is no viable alternative. That $0 potentiality is off the table entirely. Listen to what Mnuchin said. The previous admin thought they could execute the new housing system, so they prepared for the receivership. They were constrained by the reality that the GSE's are very necessary and worked and the new housing system doesn't exist and it can't be created in a vacuum. This admin want privatization and reform. Mnuchin even said that reform is contingent on the enterprises being well capitalized. So capitalization issue probably comes before the reform. Legally, we were fighting against the US government, who can do as they please. They can. I never really put much stock in the ability to tell the US they can't do what they want. US killed over 1 million Vietnamese and still don't acknowledge they did anything wrong officially. Exacting an official win from the US government is unlikely. We have to focus on the goals of the administration. The goals are privatization and entities being well capitalized. The assumption that receivership is coming is insane in this new political reality. They will first do something about NWS, then they figure out recapitalization and then reform the entities. In that order. Reform is coming later in the year. Mnuchin was talking about reform proposals. Those are not trivial things and political too. Capitalization of the enterprises is not political. They all agree the enterprises should be well capitalized. So receivership is not only off the table, but NWS is off the table. I don't know if any legal ruling is worth anything without the will of the UST. We could have won the legal ruling only to face other insurmountable odds to make the UST release them. Or we could lose legal battles and have UST do what they want with the enterprises. I'd take friendly UST over legal victory any time. 2nd comment... Look at it from the money point of view. Obama already sucked out all the equity that was in the GSE's. So the real money on the sweep has been made. Now there is a shell with risk. Mnuchin has to dump the risk. He can put in the government money to recap and sell at fraction of book value (losses for taxpayer) or keep the existing structure and just collect money on warrants exercise and sale of stock while letting the market recap it. Right now risk/reward for the NWS is not there. DTA's are coming, the risk is actually there, and the existing equity has already been looted. It's ugly what the government has done, but the future of NWS is bleaker. It's a stretch to expect him to continue collecting earnings when he can leverage the warrants and get rid of risk. Something like this is coming. Reform later in a year will just define government involvement. 3rd comment... Well said, I speculate NSW will be suspended sometime this year to recapitalize Fannie and Freddie, and the GSE reform bill will be proposed later this year after tax reform. Any talk of receivership is of fantasy, it did not happened in 2008, and certainly won't happen this year. I understand some preferred shareholders want to get paid, dividends and principals, but paying dividend is really NOT a priority to GSEs and Mnuchin. He said he believes they should be well capitalized, so did Watt. It didn't cause any controversy. I seriously doubt there is any outrage if they make money on this. The GSE's are an issue only in the DC with the politicians. There wasn't any outcry about his Nov statements. Hosing reform is political, but we don't need reform to start capitalizing the GSE's. He will do it one day like Pauson seized them. It's the same dynamics. The reform will be after taxes. If there is no tax cut, there will be a new Congress anyway. This is an inverse of 2008 seizure. Mnuchin made up his mind about it and will execute it. Pretty much what Paulson done but in reverse. If taxes are not done, there is even more incentive to release the GSE's to show the admin is doing something. They seem to talk with both sides of their mouth anyway. You have to follow the money. There is more money in release than sitting on the NWS while keeping the risk on the their books. So whatever they say is irrelevant, just like Obama's wind down. They will do what they perceive benefits them the most. NWS is not risk adjusted, so it's not as good a deal now as it was for Obama.

I think this was recorded yesterday while Maria was at the Treasury building. Seems that way according to her Twitter feed.

Financial Services Policy Analyst for Bloomberg

LOL. No more carpal tunnel syndrome :-)

"Mnuchin at Treasury Likely Lifts Chances of GSE Lawsuit Settling" -Bloomberg FWIW, Nathan Dean at Bloomberg thinks chances of settlement have increased... and this was after the Feb. 21st court ruling came out. (see attached)

Mnuchin on Maria's show (paraphrased): "the legal case belongs in the courts, the decision was favorable to Treasury, DOJ represents Treasury and it's for them to deal with."

Just to clarify, he didn't say it won't happen before tax reform. He simply said tax reform is his #1 priority. Have to hear again. I thought that he did say it wouldn't happen until after tax reform. What a BS interview. Maybe Maria will be able learn a bit more. Just depends how one interprets the following. I might be wrong as I could see it being either way. "...so I don't think you'll see something right away from us, whereas tax reform is a near-term issue. But this is definitely on the agenda." He did emphasize with his voice the "right away" part. Tax reform discussion at 5:45 of this video: http://video.cnbc.com/gallery/?video=3000595630 Quick: "Fair to say it's a little too early to tell on some of these details, that has to be worked out?" Mnuchin: "I would say it's a little too early to announce" (Mnuchin emphasized the word "announced"). Mnuchin: "See something in near future and committed to get it passed by August." The Treasury's work on it would be completed prior to it going through the process of getting passed. (my emphasis added, not Mnuchin's) The way he corrected her made it seem like they are pretty much done with the tax reform piece and it just has to jump through the hoops to get through Congress. Later on he says we haven't finalized the plan (dot i's and cross t's? Who knows...)

Just to clarify, he didn't say it won't happen before tax reform. He simply said tax reform is his #1 priority.

-Mnuchin confirmed as Sec Treasury (Monday 13th) -Mnuchin meets with Mel Watt* -Language change regarding NWS payment Freddie and Fannie Thursday and Friday (16th and 17th) -Mnuchin meets with Trump today (22nd) -Mnuchin speaking on CNBC and Fox Business News tomorrow morning (23rd) *In his first week on the job, Mr. Mnuchin has spoken with around 10 foreign counterparts and other leaders, including International Monetary Fund Director Christine Lagarde. He also has met with Mel Watt, the director of the Federal Housing Finance Agency, the independent regulator of mortgage companies Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, which are under the effective control of that agency and the U.S. Treasury as a result of their 2008 bailouts. http://news.morningstar.com/all/dow-jones/us-markets/2017022216346/treasury-secretary-steven-mnuchin-sees-tax-overhaul-by-august-4th-update.aspx Also, don't forget Watt said that the law got trumped and that the GSE's are stable companies and that the conservatorship can't last forever.

Cooper: "We are continuing to evaluate the implications of yesterday’s decision, but at a minimum, it certainly strengthens our conviction that the Net Worth Sweep amounted to a taking of property in violation of the Fifth Amendment." Sounds great but they could also be talking their book. Do you really expect them to come out and say the opposite? haha True

Cooper: "We are continuing to evaluate the implications of yesterday’s decision, but at a minimum, it certainly strengthens our conviction that the Net Worth Sweep amounted to a taking of property in violation of the Fifth Amendment."

ValueWalk: Maria Bartiromo will interview Steve Mnuchin live tomorrow morning on FOX Business Network’s Mornings with Maria at 8AM/ET $FNMA $FMCC 7am on CNBC, 8am on Fox. Mnuchin sure seems to want to get something off his chest.

If you do not understand the distinction between those terms this is likely not the discussion for you. Good luck understanding financials in general without that distinction. +1. That distinction alone likely created many millionaires back in the day with GGP.

This is incredibly interesting given that he's meeting with Trump today. I'm not anticipating any announcement regarding NWS or heavy hints at what he'll do, but I also wouldn't be surprised if he gives us more info than expected (like he did a few months back during a TV interview). Language change regarding NWS in Fannie and Freddie's financials, possibility for direct contact with Berkowitz (both SHLD board members) past few months, Mnuchin's quotes that he respects contractual rights (was in regard to something else during confirmation hearings and not GSE's directly), Mnuchin's quotes wanting to recapitalize, Mnuchin's quotes wanting to get it done relatively fast, etc.