CorpRaider

My proposed algo: if crypto still exists or people have used the term "fintech" since the last meeting you hike. If not, you chill.

Hey everybody we're below 28 CAPE/2020 low. We're all going to get laid!

I always adopted the view propounded by other, smarter people, that we would probably need to come through a bit of a crisis and flex like utes to get the valuations up (and also maybe to get the populists and regulators to lay off). Davis doubles ain't easy.

I agree, having read Buffett, I primarily look at the liability side of the bank's balance sheet. That's where the durable competitive advantages lie, if any [both more important and knowable in a Bayesian weighting sense]. I own BAC, WFC, and USB. Agree on aversion to investment banking. Good call on on the MTM losses by the way. You were raising concerns weeks ago. To me, it's a great example that if you don't have anything special (or in fact have something worse...such as concentrated deposits in excess of FDIC limits with a bunch of flighty, rich, financially unsophisticated aholes) you have no durable float and a levered crappy bidness.

Been looking at FHN. Though in the past I have decided that I prefer banks big enough to scale/spread the tech spend and regulatory costs and own a big slug of Early Warning, LLC/Zelle/Mastercard part deux, which has been a cut off at USB/PNC/Truist level. If I bought FHN, it would be predicated on reaching the scale via TD. The key as ever to me is the strength of your float/low "deposit beta." Probably gets lower for big banks (except citi) as the other guys get dealt (and hopefully shadow banks and crypto scumbags as well). Guess that's the power of a money center/center of a network effect of money.

I also would like all crypto at zero. Thx.

I'ma need a -30% in the mannheim used car index pls, thx.

Free upside if the price is right as I see it. That plus right sizing real estate plus upgrading the online offering (hey a voice assistant is dropping soon...wooo). Disclosure: main thing I care about is the deposit base/liabilities/float. None of the others you cite have that to the best of my knowledge. I would therefore never buy them.

I have often wondered if the no fee paid for by securities lending could be taken to excess, causing some surprise losses, but I haven't been able to figure out how it might happen.

It does. Never waste a good crisis. Might have to wait for some credit deterioration to reveal that they've been prohibited from chasing growth in loans and have been kicking out hot deposits during this bubble.

Yeah I listened to that podcast and came away convinced that it should be valued like a balance sheet user not amazon. Here's hoping the feds will be forced to release Wells and TD to once again fully serve the public in a time of need and certain senators from MA will be left in stunned silence.

CPI will be interesting. Maybe they need to chill with the hikes and lay the wood to QT + jawbone to try and get the curve not so inverted?

GHC, caught a fill on a limit order placed in calmer times.

Haha, yeah I worked with some guys built up banks and sold to First Union several times. They ruined Wachovia faster than I thought they would.

@Spekulatius You're referencing Cathay? That's the California kind of Chinese-American dominant bank?

I'm with you.

Neat!

LOL the comment about the complaint is pretty good.

I almost bought some ATVI this week. I've recently decided I like LUV (edit: nothing special here just recycling the WEB analysis of ~15% earnings yield and due to industry structure, likely to grow over time; only update is that I think covid/zoom impacts clearing up and the stress maybe even firmed up the view that the industry is a real solid oligopoly, with a bit further consolidation on the come) and have been thinking about some GE or K leaps. Almost certainly beyond my depth there.

Man I've seen multiple ads for money market funds from Fido over the past month and now IBKR is running ads for..."buy bonds!" These MFers were hawking crypto 3 months ago. Capitalism is funny sometimes.

The Davis double wedgie.

Buffett talked about that option value of bills/cash stuff a fair amount during 2020 AM, if I recall.

LUV und PARA und SLG

K

haha! I was halfway trolling and look at us now.