CorpRaider

I'm with you on LUV. Thought about doing some SAVE as a workout/similar industry "bet," but I suppose no deal really could be an outcome given the enforcement we're seeing and the dynamics of this industry.

To be fair the golden age of being a landlord was probably during Feudalism.

I see they just issued a bunch of LTIP units last week, but I was scared there's some rent regulation scuttlebutt pre-news that I'm missing.

If that is why it's selling off I'm all good with my GTC limit order that I apparently had outstanding getting filled today.

I just think with the changes in the rules about bank ownership, he decided he liked BAC and Moynihan better than the others but didn't want to overdue the bank exposure. FDIC and Prof. Schiller wanted about this reach for yield and duration match back in 2017 (reading his book Narrative Economics right now and he just talked about it. I doubt Buffett makes big changes based on such things these days. You might be right but if you're 7 years early it probably does not matter. Then again using the example of the Airlines, he might blow out of them if it looks like they're going to need government assistance. No one would be surprised if Citi blows up again.

Ted

Tryin to catch a fill on Clippah.

(In the voice of Charles Dickens) Bard said it likes $LUV more than $SAVE fyi @Spekulatius. haha

I think we said the same thing? "Somewhat better" -> you're saying (at least with respect to the private RE proxy) was recognized by the market buyers via paying lower cap rate. I do remember the 90s. If you buy at a high starting yield your return looks a lot like that starting yield + a little. Even Buffett was buying REITS in his personal account IIRC. Probably better idea than me buying GOOG at 50 trillion market cap with Bard sucking ass. Disclosure, I also still believe the CAPE will continue to exhibit a high correlation (~.80 R squared) with returns of stonks over long periods and am reading Prof. Schiller's new book right now.

The documents related to my purchases said they were FDIC insured but cautioned to check the overall cap against other exposures to the borrowing institution.

I did too. Hit that 5% for granny.

Sold some $CAG

Are people selling the trust banks hard because they don't have FDIC insured deposits? Unrelated: would you rather BK, STT, or NTRS?

Logic and history indicate that REITs would likely respond similarly to long duration bonds, but somewhat better.

So, if Fed is projecting terminal rate of 5.1 they're pretty much done based on data they've ingested to date?

Berk; just raising cash.

Bloomberg says my boys over at FCNCA are in the data room at SIVB, might bid. Prior "very low" bid during FDIC process was rejected. They have helped FDIC resolve a lot of smaller bank assets over the years.

Oh I just mean below trailing, reported book, it probably won't be below actual book. I got some there in 2020, so possibly anchoring. I think stagflation is likely going to result in cheap stocks like the late 70's, it seems like everyone is going to freak the f out, but we will see. We're only just now below CAPE 28.

I sold some BERK because some outstanding limit orders filled and cash was getting too low. I feel like Berk below book is coming again anyways.

CLPR

PNC only gave a billion. I can't believe Citi gave $5 billion. I hope they sent it to the right bank this time.

Wells will take your money in exchange for Rep. Waters and Senator Warren to kick you, best they can do.

I'm hoping we'll get 'em below TBV at least the ones I want.

My understanding accords with Bill's and if they put it in HTM but have to sell the type of security they have to mark it all. If you have durable float you can actually HTM it's just an accounting convention and you just reinvest the principal and interest you receive daily at higher rates. The AFS just flows through AOCI to equity as it is marked.

I think they probably have to get a special dispensation from the pope of money when deposits come pouring over the transom (they did for stimmy as I recall). They have been "running off" deposits for like three years (and probably lowering their expected "deposit beta" as a result). According to twitter they are giving hot money VCs trying to come over from SIVB kicks to the mid-section before they will accept their funds. Regulatory capture wins again.