CorpRaider

https://nypost.com/2022/09/18/back-to-work-barometer-falls-short-of-measuring-up-to-reality-as-offices-fill-up/

CAPE below 29! Not at 8 (yet), but making some moves.

Ebay

If we get to a 7%+ nominal on Treasury zeros, I'ma be posting very infrequently.

El Goog

Wait, one of the Two Cities is St. Louis!?!? Why don't you guys just build staff housing for the workers like (almost) on Sea Island, HHI, or Kiawah. Silly western yankees.

A few shares of ITIC to get reports and pay attention.

Nice. I know I'm over simplifying too, but I figure 'yota has basically been building this system for a long time and they just added a charging plug. Yeah I would not touch a tesla with a 10 foot pole with their lack of service infrastructure and horrible manufacturing problems.

GOOGL

Yeah, I would only do the Ford Escape (40 miles), Sorento or Tuscon (33), Rav4 (42), or Kia SantaFe (32). I've seen some estimates that 30 miles round trip would over the commutes for like 70% of Americans. Pump that up to 50 and add some charging at the office/CBD and it should be yuge. Hey, I read that a lot of people are passing on the reservations for RAV4's and others because of the loss of the tax credit (and potential for new credits/changes in incentives based on the IFRA). So maybe you will get bumped.

PHEVs seem like the better solution to me for the foreseeable future. Take the commuting and routine (~50 mile daily) driving and make it electric with smaller lighter batteries so you don't have as many strains on battery inputs/supply chain and get more miles electric faster. Then you are just building off the current infrastructure. Charge at home or work and pump gas when you run out in between on a road trip. Toyota has been running the dual drive train/system for decades and they are reportedly more reliable/lower maintenance even than the usual legendary Toyotas. I'm trying to hold out for a PHEV Taco or 4Runner, but those kias and hyundai small suvs are very attractive.

$TD

Interesting about Scheiber. Thx, will check it out. I'm listening to a bunch of billboard insider and digital and dirt episodes. Thinking about Lamar.

Nah I don't like him or Roubini, although they both have sweet accents and Roubini has some nuance and isn't a total broken clock. To me, Grantham isn't saying anything controversial, he even acknowledges the lack of observations available when he's in a longer-form interview.

Ahh I like him. First, he has a British accent. Second, c'mon he was on thuh investors podcast end of July and said the same stuff. (He was also like bitcoin is total bullshit and horrible for the planet even after host tried to work him into a favorable opinion like 6 times). He's not a grifter like _____ or something. Even though he's kind of retired, GMO is legit. He's usually quite nuanced (I mean his headlines grab you by the ballsack, but when you get into it's alright, like "the risks are x versus y and historically you get absolutely gutted, so here's something cheaper, do as much as you can stomach." But yeah he's been wrong about over allocating to emerging for a long time. Third, he made a shit ton on a battery tech SPAC and called it out as total bubble/bullshit real time.

We don't have a thread AFAIK, but I've been looking at VNO and buying some SLG and JBGS lately so I want to drop some notes here, probably not worth a blog post. A) NYT hates Penn redevelopment plan? (or maybe New York Today newsletter does: https://www.nytimes.com/2022/08/30/nyregion/penn-station-towers.html) IMO, they do have a point about dropping more office even if it's going to be a decade +. I need to read some VNO stuff about what they're thinking; I guess oversupply is the other guy's problem. But midtown sucks big time and I think making it all more like the rest of Manhattan even FIDI would be a great idea. B) SLG, I would rather have my one vandy already built; prefer their more opportunistic less dirt guy ethos: relatively limited, selective (re)development. Buy backs were legit; then pivoting to Korean money/asset management if stock is cheap/cost of capital too high are all great but mgmt been slapped down on comp a few times lately (good that shareholder are engaged I guess), but then I was reading their filings and WTF is this deal about Holliday and COO getting ~1% side pockets on one vandy upside. LOL they paid based on "independent appraisal". Red flags. Also, pivoting to retiring the floating stuff coming up this year is alright but obviously not ideal (buybacks above $80. Balance sheet is somewhat (hah) opaque with the debt and jvs and whatnot, but I love the specialty merchant bank/RE PE shop in NYC thing. Mezzanine gods have flexed on some great deals and they get access and info that way for sure. Of course, I guess you get sued more often. I tend to think more and more people are going to be back to like it was before covid at some point. We had good video conferencing software and hardware with polycom stuff that would focus on the speaker and blow up the relevant camera shot in like 2005. Granted it was only in the meeting/board rooms, so it's cheaper/better but I don't but that it's like a step change. If you go to the meeting or are present in the office the partner (or whatever the BSD is called in your industry) remembers you exist and you get more work/get staffed on stuff and you will end up more likely to survive the layoffs and/or get promoted over remote guy. Also, first thing I do to start vetting an investment, law, whatever firm is pull up shots of their address/HQ. Even all these interviews on Bloomberg and whatnot are laggy and crappy camera quality so the guest who is willing to drive in should get booked over the competitor unless it's like diller from his yacht. But I mean with dirt in Manhattan or DC below book, and better liquidity and management etc, I don't really have to believe any of that BS I just typed about the asset class. Note to self, look at $BXP if Boston ever becomes a real city.

CMCSA

Haha! I partnered with Thomas Petterffy on $SLG. He can be capricious, so let's just say I hope it works out as well for me as it did for Rick Guerin.

Oh I was just joking, it's an old talk on youtube to DU students and he talks about levering up $T stock on margin. He doesn't really talk about anything substantive w/r/t $T. I think this is it: Edit: Whelp, I got filled. I think I'm going to puke.

I'm watching this John Malone talk where he tells the students to lever long $T and get a 12% ROE over and over whilst checking the quote on $SLG.

I'm hearing that you have a $100 price target on Berk. That really grinds everyone's gears.

Thanks for the insight!

Level with me (and my wife more importantly). Beach houses are usually turrible investments?

Good point. I just don't know about the expensive Montessori versus the free public (including magnets). I'm also thinking if we're going to pay that much tuition we might as well send him to the Day School, so at least he graduates with a rolodex to which he could sell insurance or whatever. I do kind of regret the worthless toys when I step on them.

I hear you. I'm furiously trying to get there (but not mortgage debt prepayment...I got my bank death locked in at ~negative 5% right now. My only regret is that I was too lazy to do a yuge cash out refi). Carpal tunnel and back and neck damage are no picnic either. On the other hand, my wife just sent me information on a private Montessori school for the lad. Pay through the nose to create a hippie?