cubsfan

Buying Tenneco @ $15.90

^ HA, HA - now that is what Howard Marks would call "2nd Level Thinking" !

^ Excellent - thank you Dynamic!

MSGE - adding here. $63

^ Nice visual - thanks

^ Genuis! - great examples.

That's one brutal headline. The good news for you is that Chicago will be worse. At least you don't get shot downtown NYC, which is a regular occurrence here.

^ Yeah - the only problem is this thing called violence that is exploding in many of America's larger cities. Not at all an insignificant problem.

DFH - $21.95 .... starting position. Dream Finder Homes - SunBelt!

^ Love this!! Go for it!

An update on Splunk (SPLK) for ya! https://www.marketwatch.com/story/splunk-stock-rallies-after-company-nabs-1-billion-silver-lake-investment-2021-06-22?siteid=yhoof2

^ Dude you are a wealth of great ideas!

Sold PANW - $370

^ Mine is gone, hoping to get another shot at it.

^ Yup! My thanks on ALCO, it's been tough to accumulate, but worthwhile!

Started Energy Transfer (ET) $11.27 - dividend 5.4%, forward PE 5. Like Gregmal says, everyone hates energy!

Everyone is different, but I do like to get a "starter" position going and scale in as I get more comfortable or just stop altogether if I am not. Once I do get started - I do like to set low bids 'good until cancelled' and keep renewing them. Many times on very bad down days or bad sector news these get filled at the open when the long holders are freaking out. Worst case on my starter position, if the stock runs away from me - well I don't have a full position, but I still make some money.

No problem Gibby - sorry about hitting that nerve!

^ Nah, the "arguments" are shorter since the "centrists" now know they've been completely scammed by the toxic environment created by their "trusted" sources: a dishonest media, lying "medical experts", the WHO beholden to the CCP, and the infamous liar Doctor Fauci. It's truly embarrassing the active suppression and censoring of the truth. Too bad. It's all worth knowing the impact on the Corona virus nonsense in retrospect.

The truth is definitely worth knowing. And like Russia, Russia and today, Critical Race theory garbage, it's good to examine the Covid origin - coverup for China and our public health official's roles in keeping the truth from the American people. Unfortunately, some members are embarrassed by the truth and would just as soon shut @Gregmal down and intimidate him. We've seen it before.

^ I wouldn't argue with that at all. NOW has a massive moat since it gets so tied into IT operations and the automation/customization benefits are huge. But Splunk definitely has a moat. Trying to make sense of billions of security and operational events into something that makes sense is a massive problem for IT departments. These types of tools have been around forever, but Splunk's ability to tie many of these collector tools together and generate meaningful information makes it the leader. Once you do that, you find more to do, and like NOW - it's not going to get ripped out. Most Splunk customers seem to double/triple their initial usage within a year or so. So I think a few years from now - like NOW and Palo Alto - Splunk will have enough critical mass with it's sales force and total offering (acquisitions) that they will be the undisputed leader. We will see. I might be too early, as that seems to be my curse. Splunk is undergoing a switch in their pricing model from data based pricing to usage based, as well as cloud enablement. Most of the users hated the data pricing, as you loaded up your data and paid for that regardless of processing. Now you can load all you want - and pay for what you process. This should make it much easier for companies to see what SPLK can do for them - and just pay for that. You'll see Splunk usage skyrocket in my opinion. Add the cloud enablement in, and that will make it easier for many companies to get started with Splunk. So, yeah, it's expensive - but this pricing model change slows revenue growth down in the short term (1-2yrs?) and hence the hit to the stock.

Yes, but SPLK is dominating the event management area. The SPLK stuff grows like crazy. It's tough to deploy and requires lots of prof services (Like the SAP days). But you can customize it to your IT environment and that puts them squarely in the F1000 wheelhouse. So like an Oracle deployment or SAP deployment, once you get that animal customized to your environment - it's NOT coming out - ever. In the meantime, when the reporting and data proves it's value - revenues grow like crazy - hence their extremely high renewal rate and $$ based renewals in excess of 100%. Service Now is a fabulous company. I'll take a 2nd look. Thanks. They need to buy SPLK.

Yes - 30 years in enterprise software sales in the F1000 market. All selling to corp IT departments. Seen a few paradigm changes. This last generation of SAAS & Cloud software is the real deal. Enormous savings in deployment costs for IT departments and business lines. Controlling this shit is another story. It's hair raising for IT departments, but they have no choice. Like most of these paradigm shifts, security and management control tools are the last to mature. The cloud opens up tremendous security concerns. Where's my data? How do I know it's really secure? Who else can see this shit? The IT departments lose control - at the same time they are responsible for the data leaks, breaches, etc. It's a nightmare. So PANW, SPLK, NOW, CRWD are winning the IT business and are going to dominate as they crush the legacy vendors who can't cloud enable the old stuff.

Sold TEN - $20.50

No, it's a great point. The share-based-comp of these hyper-growth software/cloud companies is out of control. Can't justify it, other than it's industry wide and worse for the real high flyers. I'm trying to assemble a few of the really strong cloud services guys into my portfolio. Back in 2012, I held my nose and bought 2000 shares of Service-Now, a company I knew well. Paid $21 at IPO - egregious price. Sold it at around $50 - nosebleed valuation. Now it's $500. Anyway, I picked up PaloAlto a few months ago on a dip. Been waiting for the opportunity to grab Splunk. This licensing/rev rec change is the opportunity for me to do it. Both PANW and SPLK have established their dominance (like NOW) in cloud based security/event management. They have the opportunity to be like CRM and NOW - just dominate in cloud tools and deployment. This whole area is in in infancy. So, yeah, they are pigs, just like the guys at CRM were 15 years ago. It sucks paying up for these hyper growth companies - but I do not expect SPLK's competitive position to deteriorate any time soon. Keep an eye on them. PANW too.