cubsfan

Nice discussion of BRK here. I do like a situation where the old man may/will buy back a ton of stock if we have an extended downturn - and still have lots of cash. It is disappointing that the buybacks didn't kick into high gear during the pandemic. But you have to trust the old man when he says there really is just not enough tradable BRK available. Like a few guys indicate - you either trust Warren or you don't. If you do, seems like a good place for a big pile of money.

You can speculate what's in Putin's mind and what he might do - but you really have no idea. That's the bottom line. The Europeans have constantly underestimated Putin. For years. Even when he took Crimea 9 years ago - they STILL underestimated him. Now you have this mess. What will Putin do if he is allowed to take Ukraine?? You don't have a clue - only Putin knows that - NATO or no NATO. Putin only understands weak leaders. So you spend the money, stop him now - because he only understands military strength IF someone is willing to use it. That's the language despots understand.

France & Germany are the defacto leaders of Europe. If they throw Ukraine to the wolves, it just invites Russia to take any of his European neighbors he wants. They would be nuts to let $100B stand in the way of the defense of Europe.

^^^ That's an interesting response. Of course, the Germans and France are going to be the key, if Ukraine is going to be saved. I have no idea how to handicap it - but they would be nuts to let Ukraine go. You can talk about $100B here and there - but pretty much the future of Europe is at stake. Are they really that stupid?

I'll be there.

Thomas Sowell on Reparations

@james22 - thanks for posting these great slides. Good for Tilson doing some real good. It's great to hear about the spirit of the Ukrainians. It will be interesting to see how "victory" is defined: - Russians expelled from Eastern Ukraine? - Expelled from Crimea? - Current advanced just stopped cold. But nothing left but rubble anyway. So a DMZ?

For the old guys...

Wagner Group getting chewed up on both sides: https://www.foxnews.com/world/russia-sacrificing-mercenary-forces-live-meat-wagner-group-warlord-loses-putins-trust

Monetary policy explained..Treasury/Fed/Banks:

There's your answer right there.

^^^ Pretty insightful comment. I don't understand your comment on the "go shop" period. Was it clear no one else would be able to bid fairly on Alleghany? Was it a lock for Berkshire?

Yeah, I think that's right on. It doesn't seem like we are seeing the ramp up - just stockpiles dwindling at this point. But I'd agree the capacity is there. Now throw in the wild-card of Taiwan-- and it's a whole new ballgame. Hopefully, China's waiting to see how firm this Europe-USA alliance is against Russia..before they act.

I likely didn't say this correctly. My assumption was that his promise is for Berkshire to keep forever. Maybe that's not true? If the company could be taken over - that's different. But I expected as long as the acquisition was not a sustained money loser OR it damaged Berkshire's reputation - subs would not be sold to make a few bucks. Doesn't seem like the board would bend on this. And as stated, the corporate structure seems deliberate to make it difficult. Anybody know if Warren's promise to selling founders extends beyond his passing?

How does Warren do this when he's made clear to many sellers that their companies will not be sold once acquired for Berkshire? I believe his only condition was that unless the business was struggling and forecasting unending losses - he would not sell the founder's business for a few extra points of return to Berkshire. He's not going to violate that promise, given his reputation.

^^ The Economist article you guys have referenced is great. If it is an accurate picture - what I get out of it is: - Russian armaments industry is running round the clock producing munitions. - USA/Europe are shipping to Ukraine & drawing down domestic supplies quickly. - USA/Europe have the capability to outproduce, but are delayed while they bicker/negotiate (whatever term you like) to replenish dwindling supplies. - I'm seeing the reference that new production might not hit until 2024 ! - China has pretty massive stockpiles that are untouched. Seems to pose the problem of China in the future if Europe/USA decide to defend Taiwan - can production be ramped to supply 2 fronts? Personally, looks like China is galvanizing support against themselves by pissing off Europe with any intention of supply Russia against Ukraine.

^^ Well , that's what I'd be worried about - production. I'd be surprised if the Soviets aren't all full steam with production. What about the West? You worried about them? Are we just drawing down are inventories and storage of munitions? Is the West on full production mode? If the Western Allies are worried about Russia AND China - who gets the production?

^^^ I find this very difficult to believe. We have no control over Russia's means of production of munitions. How do we in the West even know what is going on with Putin's armament industry?? It seems implausible that the industry is not ramped up to 100%. If Putin wants to win this war - it's his only hope. And there in lies the problem - if you can not take out his means of production - by going into Russia - then 100% victory becomes very difficult. By that I mean, 100% victory defined as the recapture of Crimea and the occupied territories.

@VikingI think this is largely correct and underscores the importance of Ukraine, which seems like a nothing country, irrelevant to US/Europe interests. It's unfortunate that this tragedy has largely brought the US & Europe much closer together. When you are led by pacifist leaders - you have to learn the hard way unfortunately. Currently, support against Russia is galvanizing - just not quickly enough. Still too much tough talk. But it appears the European support against President Xi is finally there: his support of Russia is scaring the Europeans shitless. The Europeans that love trade - and never want to disrupt commerce - are finally coming down on the existential threat of both China and Russia - and are forced to face the issue of what matters for the LONG term. It did not help that a weak US President sided with Europe from 2008 to 2014. You can hate Trump all you like - just don't forget his final words in the short video you posted: "Peace through Strength" It really does mean something.

^^^ I sincerely hope you are right, but we better get moving and stop bickering about who is giving what weapons. Tough talk and no action has always been a Biden hallmark. Taking back Crimea and/or the Eastern Ukraine is going to be hell on earth when you can not eliminate the Russians capacity to produce armaments. Putin can go on forever while we fight amongst ourselves.

^^ GFP - you are the man for the deep dive on all things Berkshire.

^^^ Yeah, that may be - but why take any chances at all. What you do know is that Russia is full of surprises and stacked with manpower (however inept). The eastern part of Ukraine is effectively destroyed. And of course your big, big problem is the West or Ukrainians cannot take out the productive capacity of the Russians EVER. How likely is the West to actually go into Russia and destroy their munitions works, etc? Therefore, the war of attrition will continue, with Putin trying to outlast the Western Allies until they cut and run (like Afghanistan).

Pretty darn good interview. Thanks for posting. Expect the major spring offensive by Russia. The Western Allies better get their act together and get weapons/munitions flowing big time to Ukraine. If they don't - Ukraine will be a smoking pile of rubble.

GFP - If I remember correctly, early on, BNSF went into large capital expense mode for rail maintenance, tunnel expansion, etc - before and right after the Berkshire acquisition. Do you see this subsiding, and is that the reason for the large cash distributions? Just trying to understand whether the other railroads have really been cutting corners and paying for it now - ie., Norfolk..

Now it's a mess that has to be dealt with regardless of party. It could have been prevented by united allies of Europe & US. It's a huge failure of leadership. But now, both are allied - which is a good thing. But they better stop pussyfooting around, piecemealing the support for Ukraine - or they're gonna lose it to Russia. Russia can outlast them in a war of attrition. The Ukrainians have proved they will fight bravely. The spring offensive from Russia is coming. Europe & US better get serious with the weapons - and stop bickering. It should have never come to this.