I think you're right! I expect bubble frequency to increase, very simply here's why:
- more instant data in front of more eyeballs - exacerbating the fear and greed cycle.
- less analysis (it's easy to be an indexer) and increased FOMO and lemming like behavior
- much,much shorter time horizon
- way more noise
- easy credit
I remember seeing a academic paper over 10 years ago that showed a graph, that went upper left to lower right. X axis being years held, and Y axis risk of loss. As it turned out, if you owned a security for more than 5 years, you're actual chance of loss was very low, assuming you just bought a middle of the road business That has always resonated with me. Who owns a security for 5 years these days? My Grandmother did. My Great-aunt who is currently 102.5, still own Fortis (FTS.TO) which she bought around 1978.
I think this short termism will be a benefit to active value oriented investors - but the ride is going to be bumpy.
What takes us over the next waterfall? Corporate debt?