UK

https://fortune.com/2012/02/09/warren-buffett-why-stocks-beat-gold-and-bonds/ Not much to add:)

https://stratechery.com/2024/enterprise-philosophy-and-the-first-wave-of-ai/

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-09-23/ukraine-use-of-weapons-in-russia-should-be-loosened-denmark-pm-frederiksen-says?srnd=homepage-europe

I am not assuming or forecasting this in any way, other than using such assumption for stress testing, as a worst case scenario (say market panic and unrelatedly some big cat event) to evaluate possible hit to portfolio, which would be temporary perhaps, but nevertheless, I would prefer it to not exceed 20 percent from total portfolio with any position. I think even Buffett has said, that BRK went down ~50 percent for a few times in its history and that any stock investor should be prepared for such a possibility.

Thanks for your elaborate answer!

+1. I agree, this is very personal and evolves with circumstances. What is probability if FFH going to zero (while total market only halving at worst) over the next ten years in your opinion?

Health is lost something is lost, money is lost nothing is lost:). Having said this, losing 40 percent, while still would not be a big tragedy, it would definitely be a big hit and change my life somewhat...so I try to cape my possible bigest loss at ~20 percent, which is as big as your usual bear market and so should be managable psychologically and otherwise. This would imply FFH going down 50 percent if your total allocation for it is 40 percent. Currently it would mean for it to trade at ~0.6 PBV of pre some event BV. Perhaps less impossible than going to zero (this even has had happened in the past), but still, perhaps I see way less than 10-20 or even 5 percent probability of this to happen over say next 5-10 years. How do other think?

Thanks for sharing! It is good investing is not the same like flying some passenger plane (talk about anxiety) and mistakes are allowed (even Buffett has had some zeroes). Also, what matters more is how much you make when you are right, so concentrating fully makes sense in my mind for this and many other reasons. Everything is possible, but I actually think that probability of FFH going to zero is almost zero, unless the whole marked does something similar, in which case, I assure, everyone will have far biger problems and things to worry, than zeroes in their portfolios:). Everyone is 100 percent responsible for his investment decisions no mater how they were discovered:)

I feel, like I missed something, what went to zero last year?

This is what you are playing when FFH trades at <1 PBV: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Mgw5j9h8528 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YgSPaXgAdzE This is what you are playing when FFH trades at 1-1.3 BV: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KzYWTIHqutA https://youtu.be/VyvJIjAo7qI This is what you are playing when FFH trades at 1.3-1.5 BV: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CEjU9KVABao https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VqhCQZaH4Vs This is what you are playing when FFH trades at 1.7-2 BV: https://youtu.be/rrbFQEcpJ3A?t=99 This is what you are playing when FFH trades at >2 BV: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qjzJYa7tHLs This is for mega event or if you did not listened tune for the >2BV and now are back at <1 BV: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8AHCfZTRGiI https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BXqPNlng6uI https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nOJSmXSFCWk This is for taking long term view: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=g-qkY2yj4_A This is for MW: https://youtu.be/JoolQUDWq-k

Sorry, I was just kidding, I do not disagree:). Btw, personally I think we are at an almost satisfactory PBV level and it would be perfect for it to stay in some 1,3-1,5 PVB range from here.

Perhaps momentum and also this short scare in the summer seems did nothing bad for a sentiment either, anecdotally, lots of folks are incuiring which ETF is the best to buy again, some are doing this for the first time since really ancient times:)

Maybe they should look more creatively and just acquire some current constituent themselves in order get in:)))

+1. Even now. At least not jumbo position:)

OK, as a good analyst, after drinking my coffee and succumbing to public pressure (and this first target was not even nice number after some thought) I update the target for the next 52w to 2170.11 CAD (with further update up to max 2710.11 CAD still possible). Better:)?

+1

Dammit...so now, following a tradition of good analysts, I must upgrade the target to the next nice number:) Not be to greedy after such a run, lets make it 2000 CAD for the next 52 weeks*. *further upgrades will be provided if necessary.

https://www.attitude.co.uk/culture/film-tv/sex-toy-retailer-recreates-the-iron-throne-from-game-of-thrones-using-dildos-283974/ ?

How to improve your pest control business margins:

Serious stuff!

So maybe this idea to put big chunk of capital into IDBI is not that bad after all:)?

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/ukraine-targets-western-russian-regions-with-drones-russian-officials-says-2024-09-18/

This is exactly the right question to ask! Only I would argue, that despite smaller capital availability, more regulations or even talent/language barriers sometimes, most countries in Europe would be in the second best place after US. Same with universities, demography, rule of law. On the other hand, in places like Russia, or perhaps even China recently (at least for not so well CCP conected), if you have great business idea, first thing you want to do is to run away with it to a first or second place country, before it is stollen from you or worse. US is in the league of its own, at least from a business making perspective.

Reminded me about this movie again: https://youtu.be/g09a9laLh0k