UK

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-09-11/kyle-bass-says-us-banks-to-lose-250-billion-in-office-holdings#xj4y7vzkg

The book on Jobs is also very good, for me the best, related to Big tech.

https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2023-09-10/war-over-taiwan-would-be-a-financial-disaster-for-us-and-china?srnd=premium#xj4y7vzkg

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-09-09/wall-street-fears-a-too-hot-economy-as-recession-bets-plunge?srnd=premium From high-yield credit to equities, the odds of an economic downturn priced into financial assets have fallen to the lowest since April 2022, according to JPMorgan Chase & Co. It’s a big reversal from the doom and gloom of the past year, when a recession was effectively seen as a done deal. That means markets are increasingly at the mercy of economic news that signals another bout of rampant inflation, spelling trouble for interest rate-sensitive strategies. For many investors, positive economic data — and its potential to spur more policy tightening — is the headwind they’re fighting. ... “I think markets are going to be skeptical of recessions until they see the whites of its eyes,” said James Rossiter, head of global macro strategy at TD Securities. He now expects a US economic contraction early next year, after being caught out this year. “Too many times this last year or so, people like me have cried wolf on recession forecasts, only to see the world turn out better than feared.”

https://www.theinsurer.com/reinsurancemonth/odysseyres-overy-further-corrections-are-needed-at-1-1/

May I ask if big is like 5 per cent or 10 or 20 per cent big:)?

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-09-08/pacificorp-loses-bid-to-delay-trial-over-final-payout-for-fires?srnd=all Berkshire Hathaway Energy Co.’s PacifiCorp failed to postpone the final phase of a trial over catastrophic Oregon wildfire damages that will determine how much the utility will have to pay — an amount it had estimated to be as much as $11 billion. A state court judge in Portland ordered the trial over the potential payouts to start Jan. 8. The ruling Friday follows a June verdict when the judge ordered PacifiCorp to pay 17 owners of properties destroyed by a series of 2020 fires an average of $5 million each. Those 17 plaintiffs were awarded about $90 million, but Judge Steffan Alexander’s ruling means that calculating damages for as many as 5,000 other residents and business owners will move forward — setting up total potential liability in the billions of dollars. PacifiCorp wanted the proceeding delayed while it appeals the original verdict, and has said it’s confident it will prevail on appeal. ... At trial, Portland-based PacifiCorp estimated its potential liability at $11 billion. In a more recent regulatory filing, the company reported in August that it faces damages claims of more than $7 billion from all lawsuits over the 2020 Oregon fires and estimated its pre-tax losses through June of this year at $608 million after accounting for probable insurance recoveries.

https://www.bloomberg.com/en/news/thp/2023-09-08/hayao-miyazaki-invites-moviegoers-to-dream-with-him-one-last-time?srnd=premium-europe “We are privileged enough to be living in a time where Mozart is composing symphonies,” the filmmaker Guillermo del Toro said Thursday, introducing the film's first screening outside Japan. “Miyazaki san is a master of that stature.” Miyazaki, who didn't travel to Toronto, has himself lampooned his inability to fully step away. In journal excerpts shared in the film's press notes, Miyazaki writes: “There’s nothing more pathetic than telling the world you’ll retire because of your age, then making another comeback.” “Doesn’t an elderly person deluding themself that they’re still capable, despite their geriatric forgetfulness, prove that they’re past their best?" he adds. "You bet it does.”

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-09-08/rahm-emanuel-s-musing-about-china-leaders-stirs-new-controversy?srnd=premium-europe “President Xi’s cabinet lineup is now resembling Agatha Christie’s novel And Then There Were None,” Emanuel wrote. “First, Foreign Minister Qin Gang goes missing, then the Rocket Force commanders go missing, and now Defense Minister Li Shangfu hasn’t been seen in public for two weeks. Who’s going to win this unemployment race? China’s youth or Xi’s". The comments conflict with the commonly observed practice of US diplomats staying away from speculation on other countries’ domestic politics. China’s ruling Communist Party also typically issues sharp rebukes of any foreign official’s discussion about the government’s inner workings. ... In an interview with the Wall Street Journal last week, he said the Communist Party used “lying and cheating as a modus operandi of the state.” He also said the US shouldn’t stand in the way of China’s growing economic peril. “My view is keep doing what you’re doing,” he said. “You’re the one with 30% unemployment among youth, not us. You got 10 years of housing with nobody in it. You got people that are getting fleeced by the big developers and the banks. You got municipalities in China that makes Chicago look like a AAA-rated bond. Keep at it.”

https://www.wsj.com/economy/housing/the-fall-in-home-prices-may-already-be-over-3496d6bb?mod=hp_lead_pos1 Swonk is one of those who didn’t see this coming. In late 2022, she called for home prices to fall 20% nationally this year. Now, she says, prices are likely to end the year up slightly from last year.

https://www.wsj.com/finance/banking/tiny-bank-called-republic-first-faces-test-of-depositors-faith-df0f1225?mod=hp_lead_pos5 So far Republic First has managed to live on, and its depositors largely have remained loyal. Deposits as of June 30 were down just 10% from a year earlier. ... In May, Republic First Bancorp, the bank’s holding company, said it would stop making interest payments on its debt. Earlier this year, it tried and failed to raise $125 million to shore up its finances. Its stock now trades for 30 cents a share on the over-the-counter marketplace, and its stock-market value is $21 million. Republic First’s total equity, or assets minus liabilities, was $183 million as of June 30, according to its quarterly report with banking regulators. However, that excluded $304 million of unrealized losses on bonds that it labeled “held to maturity,” which means the losses don’t count on its balance sheet. The losses are the result of lower bond values, which declined when interest rates rose and could rebound if rates fell. Republic First still hasn’t filed audited financial statements for 2022, which it blamed in part on its “former executive team’s failure to maintain adequate internal controls.” For regulatory purposes, the bank said it was well capitalized as of June 30. Silicon Valley Bank, Signature Bank and First Republic Bank all were deemed well capitalized shortly before they failed, based on their reported regulatory capital.

https://www.ft.com/content/5308cd9f-037e-4524-a6d8-7388b3514199 No other investor has a life story quite as unbelievable as Li Lu/How a radical who fled Tiananmen made billions betting on China.

https://www.wsj.com/world/europe/in-crimea-pro-ukraine-feelings-prompt-a-russian-crackdown-123494b0?mod=hp_lead_pos9 Punishments for showing these feelings are often severe, with prison terms and forced confessions that are broadcast on a Telegram channel called the Crimean Smersh—a reference to the Stalin-era abbreviation for counterintelligence death squads. August’s catches included a man apologizing for posting “Glory to Ukraine” on social media, another for blasting a Ukrainian song about burning a Russian tank, and three young hostesses at the Alushta aquapark who had danced to another Ukrainian pop tune. The three women were made to sing on camera about the greatness of Russian President Vladimir Putin. Russia’s FSB intelligence service, meanwhile, paraded a man who had allegedly blown up a gas pipeline in Crimea, one of several such recent detentions on sabotage charges. Most of those detained for such acts of resistance aren’t members of the traditionally pro-Ukrainian Crimean Tatar community, an estimated 12% of the peninsula’s population. Many are ethnic Russians who are repulsed by Russia’s militaristic autocracy and prefer a return to democracy under Ukrainian rule. ... As a result, many Crimeans who originally backed annexation by Russia are now changing their mind, said Abbas Gallyamov, a former speechwriter for Putin who has left Russia and opposes the government. “There used to be that sentiment in Crimea of return to a home harbor, but you have to understand that this return was so popular because the Ukrainian authority seemed weak and the Russian authority seemed strong,” Gallyamov said. “But now that Russia is losing, and doesn’t show any strength, the legitimacy of the Putin regime has been eroded. And when Ukraine is strong, many Crimeans are thinking ‘Maybe we have made a mistake?’ ”

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-09-06/china-mulls-law-banning-clothes-that-hurt-feelings-of-others?srnd=premium-europe “Shouldn’t the spirit of Chinese nation be strong and resilient?” the person asked. “Why can it be easily damaged by a costume?”

Thanks Viking! Every time you post something like this I have to debate myself how much of FFH to own is enought:)))

https://www.wsj.com/business/energy-oil/green-energy-coal-country-875d52fa

Maybe not all, but most analyst reports are a joke, just ignore them and use them for information/entertainment purposes only. I know, since in my previous life many years ago, I also wrote some of these reports:). While doing this we were joking, that "paper could suffer anything". DCF gives you ability to get almost whatever outcome your want. Generaly they all suffer very much from recency bias, otherwise they are to optimistic. Only one Sell report was issued by the department I worked in a few years and then analyst who did this was forced to leave a job, at the insistence of client, who otherwise threatened to sever his relationship with a bank. I think we were allowed at the time, but I do not remember, anyone betting any of his/her money on the research produced. Despite of everything, most people involved (clients, general public etc) took everything quite seriously, which was very interesting and bizzare expierence for me:).

Still not past the peak. I wonder if and by how much it effects the price of FFH in this period?

China’s Xi Vows to Continue Opening Up Market, on Own Terms In previous years, Xi has used the fair to reaffirm China’s commitment to opening up. There have been indications that foreign businesses are looking for more than just pledges this time around, with European Chamber President, Jens Eskelund, saying last month some executives are feeling “promise fatigue.”

Perhaps it also means, that despite of not recognising losses, these companies will underearn for years and/or will behave differently in the underwriting side, hopefully keeping the insurance market harder for longer:)

Precisely.

This is not a bad take on the situation: https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2023-08-31/china-xi-jinping-should-talk-less-politics-and-more-economics Xi’s calm in the face of China’s worst economic situation in decades may have disappointed investors, but he has good political reason not to prioritize a recovery at the moment. Like all strongmen who guard their power with utmost vigilance, Xi likely knows that a pivot to the economy means delegating a lot of authority to technocrats. That’s because most specific policies to address China’s current woes are highly complex and technical. Decentralization of power is the precondition of reviving economic dynamism. The empowerment of senior officials in charge of the economy could dilute Xi’s own influence — even though they are his acolytes. He probably remembers the experience of Mao Zedong following the Great Leap Forward famine from 1959 to 1961. After this disaster destroyed Mao’s credibility, the dictator had to step aside, ceding economic policymaking to pragmatists. But soon Mao began to regret the decision because the subsequent recovery boosted the power of the pragmatists at his expense. He had to launch the Cultural Revolution in 1966 to regain political dominance.